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Posts posted by Eagle Eye
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Must have missed that as I was in Ashford just down the road from that. Don't know how I missed it.
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Absolutely incredible tornado footage
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Convective Outlook️
North Sea showers should move south mostly across the East Anglia area and some into the SE. Risking thundery nature with them with 50+ J/KG of 3CAPE.
Some hail appears possible and a small chance of a tornado or funnel cloud. However, the weak lift and weak energy limits lightning and severe potential.
Mostly gone for slight based off what happened today.
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Storm to my SW is beginning to form a pretty nice base that'll allow for some good photos but the sun is very close to it and means that my photos are over exposed, even if I try and just get the cloud in.
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Yeah seems the spot. The only model that convect significantly the NAM 3KM has the best handle on the moisture advection at the moment. Central Jansas has a great environment but a large cap in place, Nebraska would be a more sure fire bet but less off an incredible wind field environment.
Central Kansas.
Central southern Nebraska.
Also a reminder of the Oklahoman environment just in case. That wind field is potentially violent but thankfully there's a surface inversion and storm initiation looks to upscale too quickly once it gets going.
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Convective Outlook ️
An active cold front is developing just of the coast of W Scot which will track SE across the country bringing the risk of the odd lightning strikes, 60mph gusts & a brief possible tornado. T-storms are also expected for W Scot where a SLGHT has been issued. Perhaps a re-strengthening towards the Lincolnshire corridor but not enough confidence in how it'll evolve for that.
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Monday is very interesting with high end potential. Hooked low-levels with enough CAPE allowing significant risks for tornadic activity to occur. The very high buoyancy will help likely with breaking any cap in place and the lower the CAPE is as long as there's still enough for severe thunderstorm, the less likely of a messy setup there it.
On the ejecting side of a trough with advancing shear and a lobe of shearing into the western parts of Oklahoma and into central Northern Kansas appears to be roughly where this convection should be held. That shearing is by far strong enough for tornadic risks to be there with this but we'll likely have to wait for the HRRR to get a more accurate view as the NAM can be quite poor at times.
The soundings have a stretched and strong low-level wind field with mostly streamwise vorticity and a classically significant tornadic saturation profile. However, there is some lack of low-level CAPE and that'll likely have to be watched closely as a potential bust mode.
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Yeah, probably the best one I've captured because I've managed to find some new places in the village that I can quickly run to it and watch it envelop houses, may be better for lightning photography in the future. There was also thunder rumbling away inside the storm, not half bad for April.
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Another little timelapse. Excuse the high brightness at the start, it lowers quickly though.
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Looks like it. Got insane photos.
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Smells of bust. That's why I didn't want to go moderate.
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The storm that's supposed to be over Amiens by now hasn't formed, potentially a good sign. Seems to be running a little late with everything though.
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Storms and Convective discussion - April 2024
in Storms & Severe Weather
Posted
What I think was the north sea storm approaching but just skirting past Kent.