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Eagle Eye

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Posts posted by Eagle Eye

  1. July

    7th July run

    9th July

    image.thumb.png.15ad18faafc5a73e941e41941cbc1587.pngimage.thumb.png.bc2f4604525a80552a7910b2a4291f8a.pngimage.thumb.png.d8cadeb5be4d3a69bc243b493d411ac6.png

    Model agreement 93%

    Outcome : 92%

    image.thumb.png.55cfa12d0e16e1fe57f59e4025361953.png

    The GFS prevails here, the main difference being the Arabian height not too much difference.

    11th July

    image.thumb.png.2e6f9e4a7ad988064bbd82d7ee2f0db8.pngimage.thumb.png.b0f18a09e2757e68469e64185a363eda.pngimage.thumb.png.98668d16caa853116b17f5a6a5c2b786.png

    Model agreement : 77%

    Outcome : 70%

    image.thumb.png.b919a943b9a06d1992c2d6bc6d48ff7c.png

    13th July

    image.thumb.png.71b7ac658b72de44b262d17098ab0839.pngimage.thumb.png.386860b629322625893013902c1d8f2f.pngimage.thumb.png.2913316d732e8bcd1a14e5b8ed69121b.png

    Model agreement : 64%

    Outcome : 63%

    image.thumb.png.f5b89724901b44e85a974c164189d806.png

    15th July

    image.thumb.png.117f3fa1a64e12581e147747280e247a.pngimage.thumb.png.8e79a4a197fca20d05c1afe7e3ea0780.pngimage.thumb.png.fae47351e5ce8dda15e1804e0efd174a.png

    Model agreement : 54%

     Outcome : 51%

    image.thumb.png.d14646fb7dc2eef1b467545b2b555630.png

    18th July run

    20th July

    image.thumb.png.126bac3c1ac7381f870fe886e6b9de61.pngimage.thumb.png.dcbb11b124ef2faf52182f1c2c7c25df.pngimage.thumb.png.e415baab51196b21814e53df2dd95744.png

    Model agreement : 93%

    Outcome : 87%

    image.thumb.png.55f5059376abdfe4f0246cf42c43eb0d.png

    22nd July

    image.thumb.png.5414b8a62f290ed2ee77016dee460bbb.pngimage.thumb.png.26a1c9aa4f5a6f9e288ec215f58891e1.pngimage.thumb.png.071227d35fe97cfeb57b77be3ec8c59e.png

    Model agreement : 81%

    Outcome :  77%

    image.thumb.png.c0d68b233dff58d354be0bb26d0d540e.png

    24th July

    image.thumb.png.80498ca73fa4babb89ecb848c61038b7.pngimage.thumb.png.5e9bc6c2934388d970b2fedb41ced4f1.pngimage.thumb.png.8975146694fcb01d143fef4b1b7bbb21.png

    Model agreement : 73%

    Outcome :  63%

    image.thumb.png.857d9e05ba62ee680628660fe0bf3c85.png

    26th July

    image.thumb.png.1f8fc691283dd9a0e64c502b3e30eb20.pngimage.thumb.png.5e266503477655997b1ec2d643ec3945.pngimage.thumb.png.32a3120d3f7e6fdd01b5a5f19ed50222.png

    Model agreement : 65%

    Outcome : 50%

    image.thumb.png.38ed3f3b867b78dd1dbb24bcc8e02cdc.png

    July

    48 hours

    Model agreement : 93%

    Outcome 88-92%

    96 hours

    Model agreement: 79-81%

    Outcome: 73-75%

    144 hours

    Model agreement: 67-70%

    Outcome: 63%

    192 hours

    Model agreement: 58-62%

    Outcome: 50-51%

    That's all for today tomorrow is August and September , then Thursday is the final results of Spring, Summer and early Autumn then hopefully i'll find a way to get the winter models soon to finish this project off.

    • Like 4
  2. On 21/09/2021 at 08:30, Eagle Eye said:

    I shall be doing a test on how on average models agree(percentage) and how close those models are to the eventual outcome on those dates. 

    Having chosen 2 random days for part 1bto do this test beggining with the first crossover day May 1st, this is only part 1 of my test. 

    May 1st

    GEM VS GFS VS ECM

    day 3

    gemnh-0-48.thumb.png.65916aa88f35fa028cb17af82615edc5.png1437120259_gfsnh-0-48(1).thumb.png.ab9f73f65df786d4bd1c2e7e7f236256.pngECH1-48.thumb.gif.d20f385a4f0f7a91fbca141a9b166cbb.gif

    Model agreement: Not much difference at all between GEM and GFS except the strength of the low positioned over northern Europe and Russia, this low had been strengthened sightly towards the centre of it by the GFS, both models and the ECM are relatively similar as well. 

    Model agreement: 95%

    Eventual outcome : 95%

     

    archivesnh-2021-5-3-0-0.thumb.png.3f76d43eab49a71a4aa962e24e31e961.png

    Can only get it at midnight but its close enough model agreement in line with outcome : 95%

    GFS: 97%

    ECM : 97%

    GEM : 91%

    Day 5

    gemnh-0-96.thumb.png.8c48d247f22b7903bad04d4435d88d46.pnggfsnh-0-96.thumb.png.da7d71ae6ed05f71c0cf84fc1ea186d1.pngECH1-96.thumb.gif.5a68fce8979686bad139cbca5e5fbf24.gif

    GFS and GEM weaken the low North of England more than the ECM, differences to the feeding through if the high towards Europe as well. 

    Model agreenent: 90%

    Outcome :

    archivesnh-2021-5-5-0-0.thumb.png.968222f451442bebeb2499538ac507fe.png

    Model agreement to outcome : 85% ,there is a lot different to the Models in terms of that low's positioning but in model terms it's pretty accurate and so is that high. 

    GEM: 87%

    GFS: 85%

    ECM: 83%

    Day 7

    gemnh-0-144.thumb.png.f7b94756652bab0a94f635f157ec1ce6.pnggfsnh-0-144.thumb.png.a05525eba177aef39cc3c28ddc472c47.pngECH1-144.thumb.gif.9f067d6af5fe5c0accf0615ca12d65fe.gif

    Model agreement: 80%

    Still a lot the same right now, the centre of that low is different on the Models by quite a big margin and that East Pacific low is different as well. 

    Outcome

    archivesnh-2021-5-7-0-0.thumb.png.2357e0c679e71d5f53ea4ec9b52cae6e.png

    There is a lot different with the strength of the low here not only that but the depth of the East Pacific low across north America

    Model outcome : 70%

    Day 9

    gemnh-0-192.thumb.png.47108b86e4103bd8f5c284e1abf8cc5e.pnggfsnh-0-192.thumb.png.b2d5f91c91f7b038e6a78e2490a3a384.pngECH1-192.thumb.gif.6f7f625728853e5711a2b0fe7cdeb0f7.gif

    Model agreement : There is a lot different now but the principle is still the same 55%

    Compared to outcome :

    46303679_archivesnh-2021-5-7-0-0(1).thumb.png.3a3d592ccd88df4324a5be50c3e14670.png

    There is a big different to the Models here, including the strength of the high going up in Europe and the strength of the Arctic low's, thee incursion of the low across Greenland has definitely retreated. 

    50%

    GFS: 55%

    ECM: 48%

    GEM: 47%

    2nd day run

    15th May

    1077447858_gemnh-0-48(1).thumb.png.3fa69ebc84f91fdc63bfd5629c788156.png293921519_gfsnh-0-48(2).thumb.png.bf6d16c418e85c1cc239b321c002b7b0.png2018253692_ECH1-48(1).thumb.gif.67c54785ab414ebc00054a5d05ab550f.gif

    Model agreement : 90%

    Outcome: 85%

    archivesnh-2021-5-15-0-0.thumb.png.8f4131af9c82195c4d00c81b79028528.png

    17th May

    1001031061_gemnh-0-96(1).thumb.png.ba7a0444686cf1fb7a37b5c42b7a2f86.png576527145_gfsnh-0-96(1).thumb.png.154d601c08278fa0f97fa9087d7c274b.png175004510_ECH1-96(1).thumb.gif.3906622bd8ea24e6819e5eb72daadb08.gif

    Model agreement : 85%

    Outcome : 83%

    archivesnh-2021-5-17-0-0.thumb.png.8dedfae544f8ae72d70af7131cab22d5.png

    19th May

    755598625_gemnh-0-144(1).thumb.png.e3d2d47baf4e7d902141e96aaa952df1.png1439450551_gfsnh-0-144(1).thumb.png.fdfd9583ce9f716ff853c5e5b64d26ae.png1693471418_ECH1-144(1).thumb.gif.96deba217a0ba61dbc1dac129394cb03.gif

    Model agreement 80%

    Outcome : 70%

    archivesnh-2021-5-19-0-0.thumb.png.ca1e7171685fb87445e218bf7129e6b6.png

    21st May

    759896013_gemnh-0-192(1).thumb.png.ffc06a18d8479970524b4a012a62d1df.png1340476693_gfsnh-0-192(1).thumb.png.19624563cf830d1aad77a20eb2b05672.png1284587731_ECH1-192(1).thumb.gif.3b65aa0ebdbef2f68ce840ceb9e91c36.gif

    Model agreement : 55%

    Outcome : 45%

    archivesnh-2021-5-21-0-0.thumb.png.88f38bdfb04743c35f8e605dd81441da.png

    Thats it for now, part 1 done

     

     

    Part 2 of my self research

    Same models in same order as before

    8th June start date

    10th June

    image.thumb.png.5605c514afa7e64f098c7973f89a087b.pngimage.thumb.png.63fbe4f007b78e8cb26a614bb6904eee.pngimage.thumb.png.1bb93dc91a31cd566b4d14f80f6fe27d.png

    Model agreement : 90%

    Outcome :  85%

    image.thumb.png.0b1f7c1a6f43bc060970a9de82d45154.png

    12th June

    image.thumb.png.8994aa9afabca2c4797894cc9e3783c3.pngimage.thumb.png.69ebc16704282df94e7efcbb2ec50024.pngimage.thumb.png.754fa763f20e53a9a0cb3ea6073e001a.png

    Model agreement : 80%

    Outcome : 73%

    image.thumb.png.f0d6a1b7abb5117e9d7975dc4dc9df4a.png

    14th June

    image.thumb.png.20fa21a52679cf03d6fa517bc82a23b9.pngimage.thumb.png.66441a3459f19ad9a6860a98d9398cac.pngimage.thumb.png.3e315d945a249dcc48a25dc6d29772b4.png

    Model agreement : 65%

    Outcome : 52%

    image.thumb.png.d7f2e26a682d1866be5980a23ce4b971.png

    16th June

    image.thumb.png.f8e293ad30ff20cf23a21b54a192f74d.pngimage.thumb.png.ad7ac7e1638049b8d1bae08be44afb09.pngimage.thumb.png.871195d73e7cd68f7d67b1c341114397.png

    Model agreement : 45%

    Outcome : 37%

    image.thumb.png.3e77ba2cb94078d35bc109cf0768be52.png

    Run 20th June

    22nd June

    image.thumb.png.9e55da87d1595088f072ace2d68caa14.pngimage.thumb.png.995bffe11a5623ec67f4586caa40e281.pngimage.thumb.png.ae1128158e91a501a6ddbc95bbcc8586.png

    Model agreement : 95%

    Outcome : 88%

    image.thumb.png.1616f7b1672b5aac459f463feb8a5177.png

    24th June

    image.thumb.png.d551932531aeeb39214e3dd88ab09307.pngimage.thumb.png.3fe6c823b6c0b9051dd54be1a08be9c3.pngimage.thumb.png.470a17e322e97fa0c69567cbd7e5046e.png

    Model agreement : 79%

    Outcome : 72%

    image.thumb.png.0b43ed1d33b6338ce2b8e9d539415021.png

    26th June

    image.thumb.png.591112434d57729a562fd756a19ed796.pngimage.thumb.png.5f8047e877462a6aa393c873b7c97869.pngimage.thumb.png.6fdcc62d7835aaeaa1a6e2574c97f808.png

    Model agreement : 52%

    Outcome : 47%

     image.thumb.png.6f7a27b2cdc3b76349ea0a6f6a0ba5c4.png

    28th June :

    image.thumb.png.0dd2fa961c43c3f7350df0e42361079b.pngimage.thumb.png.0ec5567bc140c2fb9b2a250f21ea9aad.pngimage.thumb.png.3df578c867cc4a118c7eb16a2823f891.png

    Model agreement : 42%

     Outcome : 40%

    image.thumb.png.2c29406994d0b9c09f90f7bc8f686d89.png

    Total percentage average at 

    48 hours

    Model agreement 92-94% on average

    Outcome : 88-90%

    96 hours

    Model agreement : 80-87%

    Outcome 72-80%

    144 hours

    Model agreement : 58-72%

    Outcome : 47-57%

    192 hours

    Model agreement : 44-55%

    Outcome : 40-50%

    As far as I can see June seems to have more differences within it compared to May, perhaps the positoning of the Arctic low's which seems to be the main difference is hard to predict further into Summer. The high's positioning is also hard to predict especially around 144 hours compared to 96 hours, after 4-7 or so days the diffence in percentage slow's down. Model agreement is definitly much more than the outcome however interestingly towards day 7 the gap closes down.

     

    GEM closer to now isn't as trustful as GFS and ECM, GEM is varying a lot more compared to the other models in terms of how close the model is at certain hours. ECM is an underrated model in terms of being up there with as close as GFS in the outcomes. GFS does prevail most of the time as the turtle style model however in June it does seem to be less of a model for high's over the UK.

    That's all for now

     

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    • Thanks 1
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