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Eagle Eye

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Posts posted by Eagle Eye

  1. Convective Outlook⚡️ 

    North Sea showers should move south mostly across the East Anglia area and some into the SE. Risking thundery nature with them with 50+ J/KG of 3CAPE.

    Some hail appears possible and a small chance of a tornado or funnel cloud. However, the weak lift and weak energy limits lightning and severe potential.

    Mostly gone for slight based off what happened today. 

    20240416_202729.thumb.jpg.dcad210bc75517c9ab4ef16da505bc48.jpg

    • Like 3
  2.  Ben Sainsbury

    Yeah seems the spot. The only model that convect significantly the NAM 3KM has the best handle on the moisture advection at the moment. Central Jansas has a great environment but a large cap in place, Nebraska would be a more sure fire bet but less off an incredible wind field environment. 

    Central Kansas. 

    nam4km_2024041518_006_38.22--98.4.thumb.png.007f5eaed34718dea2f4aa7716bbff58.png

    Central southern Nebraska. 

    nam4km_2024041518_007_40.47--100_02.thumb.png.b0736edb19e6e9737d776e1a2b84d7cd.png

    Also a reminder of the Oklahoman environment just in case. That wind field is potentially violent but thankfully there's a surface inversion and storm initiation looks to upscale too quickly once it gets going. 

    nam4km_2024041518_010_35.55--99_16.thumb.png.e93174348402b952f101a88c03b27323.png

    • Like 1
  3. Convective Outlook ⚡

     

    An active cold front is developing just of the coast of W Scot which will track SE across the country bringing the risk of the odd lightning strikes, 60mph gusts & a brief possible tornado. T-storms are also expected for W Scot where a SLGHT has been issued. Perhaps a re-strengthening towards the Lincolnshire corridor but not enough confidence in how it'll evolve for that. 

     

    20240414_172703.jpg

    • Like 9
  4. Monday is very interesting with high end potential. Hooked low-levels with enough CAPE allowing significant risks for tornadic activity to occur. The very high buoyancy will help likely with breaking any cap in place and the lower the CAPE is as long as there's still enough for severe thunderstorm, the less likely of a messy setup there it. 

    sbcape_hodo.us_c.thumb.png.55f37aa65e83e141b91edd4462014b25.png

    sbli.us_c(1).thumb.png.a57709271876c4fbdeff4fe583f0d4d7.png

    ehi01.us_c(1).thumb.png.8e166bdf7b11676cc0205e61e91b0f26.png

    850hvv.us_c.thumb.png.4cb1b205c5bfeb7f0f0a5dace4606d99.png850tadv.us_c.thumb.png.36a80f93f9588e40242cb373b71e8a6b.png

    On the ejecting side of a trough with advancing shear and a lobe of shearing into the western parts of Oklahoma and into central Northern Kansas appears to be roughly where this convection should be held. That shearing is by far strong enough for tornadic risks to be there with this but we'll likely have to wait for the HRRR to get a more accurate view as the NAM can be quite poor at times. 

    bs0500.us_c.thumb.png.fa4e2c4843995b1d1e7da28b9d6d2c3d.png

    sbcape_hodo.us_c(1).thumb.png.396184582bc310002b3f9c8cc558e5f7.png

    The soundings have a stretched and strong low-level wind field with mostly streamwise vorticity and a classically significant tornadic saturation profile. However, there is some lack of low-level CAPE and that'll likely have to be watched closely as a potential bust mode. 

    nam_2024041218_081_36.75--100_04.thumb.png.c14ade55f0d597a015cf2d74ff413025.png

    nam_2024041218_081_38.88--100_55.thumb.png.1c13de763841f26563aa68c6561c9865.png

    • Like 1
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