desperately seeking

Hi All, Convection confuses me. In the next few days we're forecast to have an LP sat bang over us. In the summer (especially if it was a warm LP which I know this one's not) I'm pretty certain we would be more or less guaranteed slow moving heavy - possibly thundery - showers more or less anywhere in the country. At this time of year, because the sun is less strong, this seems to be less likely - I keep looking at the LP that will be over us and having to remind myself that convection is less likely to happen - but is that true? This is where my question lies; how does the difference between a cold LP (like the PV that will be over us soon) and a warm LP (for example a Spanish Plume in August) affect convection and do we know where convection is more likely to occur in a cold and warm LP? What other factors (leaving out the effect of the sun) can contribute to convective showers being generated? TIA DS

Sky are forecasting heavy snow from the South West??? tomorrow. Wha?? DS

That b***** snow line is never actually making it to SE London - so close I can touch it but no snow. This is somewhat irksome. Looking for obvious distractions to take the mind off this weather.... DS

Colour me confused - we have a shower over us according to the radar but the sky here is crystal clear DS

Unlikely - wind in wrong direction; need ENE for the TS... DS

I hope you're right Steve, Us in Bromley tend to get the same stuff you B'heathers get. Fingers crossed. DS

Grrrr... Too far east for the initial event and too far west for the streamers. I want more than an inch.... Grrrr... DS

All, what's the consensus about this weeked's supposed event? The various sites/forecasters seem to have no clue as to what is happening: Metcheck are forecasting heavy rain for tomorrow and sleet on Sunday. The Beeb and Sky are ramping it up to be a major snow event every forecast. Meto have orange warnings for Sussex and Kent NW has the PPN type being snow all through to Monday but the PPN chance charts show a decrease to 60% on Sunday. This is a tad confusing Anyone got any ideas? DS

TBH we haven't really seen much out of this spell so far. Half an inch before Christmas and not much more than another inch out of this snowy period. Nowhere near the amounts we saw in Feb 2009 where we had a good foot in a day. Doesn't look like we're going to see a massive dumping in the immediate future either. We really need a true Thames streamer or a big frontal battleground to get decent amounts here - just not in the right geographical location... DS

Very light snow in Bromley now... DS

Looking like SE London should get some light stuff in the next couple of hours (going by the radar). Wind seems to have a bit more of an easterly compnent in it as well. Bodes better for tonight and tomorrow... DS

Looking like SE London mught catch a bit (not a big bit) but the winds still have too much of a northerly element to them; once they turn more easterly things should start to look up for the capital and it environs (south of the river in particular)... DS

I second that motion - the wind is far to low for anything to reach the capital at the mo... DS

Indeed - have rectified that little error in navigation! DS

*sigh* - Looks like this streamer is going to be too far west for SE London. We never get anything from a straight NE'erly; too long a land track when the wind isn't heavy enough - hopefully we'll get some flakes once the strong winds start to kick in tomorrow afternoon. I'm off to bed TTFN DS Of course I meant to say East

Rob M (on the 10 o'clock news) just said "Persistent but light snow" for Southern England on Sunday and Monday..... Here's hoping. DS

It's looking like we may see this lot in SE London if it can survive the overland track - here's hoping... DS

What do the experts in here think about this weekend's forecast snow event for the whole of the South? I've just seen Francis on Sky who seems to think it'll be bad but he did say "it might not happen" at the end of the broadcast. The Met suggest tentatively that it will happen. Metcheck (am I allowed to say that in here? ) are saying that it will be an all day sleet event - at least for my postcode. Anyone? DS PS England boys nearly threw it away again

As a (nearly) lifelong SE Londoner I would suggest that the overland track from a straight NE'ley is too long for any showers to reach us - but we have done very well in the past few years from ENE and E winds. DS

MetO seem very excited about the amount of snow SE England could get in the next two days - judging by what's on the radar I don't see much happening at least today. DS

LOL - the sunset has gone backwards (getting brighter now)

You got more than we did then Jan - only around 1 to 1.5 inches in my back garden :mad: Looking forward to Sun/Mon Pitch black here now but nothing in the sky (apart from starlings)... DS Still can't spell.

Excellent - thanks for that. Now I know what to look for I will allow my hopes to elevate somewhat! DS

CAn someone explain to me where Sunday's supposed snow is coming from? Is it just going to be many heavy showers or something more organised - both Sky, the Beeb and the met seem to be hinting at something but nothing looks "organised" on the charts (except the fax - what's the difference between a front in solid black and one that is just an outline?) DS

I'm confused by the forecast for the weekend. I realise that there'll be a vicious easterly wind blowing in which will help push any showers inland but all the forecasters (Sky, Beeb etc) are telling us to keep an eye out for possible heavy snow on Sunday for a lot of England. This would be very welcome for those of us that like that kind of thing, but other than a showery airstream I can't see anything more organised - what am I missing or are they just talking about a lot of convection stuff going down? DS