al78
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Posts posted by al78
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36 minutes ago, East Lancs Rain said:
Looks like SE England has been sunnier and drier.
Certainly doesn't feel like that here in Horsham. Everywhere has been wet for weeks and this month I doubt we have reached double figure sunshine accumulation yet.
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37 minutes ago, raz.org.rain said:
What's the realistic outcome going into January? I figured I'd get a more realistic answer here.
Something has been crossing my mind for a few weeks now... it really doesn't feel like Christmas, like something feels very off with the past two months. I saw someone else mention the same thing elsewhere. I wonder if it's the weather but so far it's not massively different from the past few years.
One thing that is off is the lack of any prolonged settled weather since September and the constant barrage of low pressure weather systems which have primed parts of the UK for a major flood event. This is why England+Wales has had its 12th wettest autumn in records going back to 1766 and why the full December average rainfall has been reached with eight full days of the month left. It is not just the rain, it feels like the last three months have been very dull especially December so far.
It doesn't feel like Christmas because it is autumn weather, more like early November than late December.
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10 minutes ago, Rob 79812010 said:
Blimey, I didn't realise!
Bear in mind a 10-year average will be more heavily influenced by one extreme year than a 30-year average.
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19 minutes ago, East Lancs Rain said:
Too many people on here expect winters like in Norway or Iceland and summers like Spain or Portugal every year, and get angry when it doesn’t happen.
It has to be said though the weather in the UK this year has been a combination of quirky and dismal even by UK climatology standards. I went to Jotunheimen Norway for a week in July and on the first day of walking it felt like a SE England heatwave, in a mountain plateau environment at an altitude equivalent to the Cairngorms, which was not what I was expecting. Meanwhile back home the UK was in the process of having one of the wettest July's on record. Much of my holiday in Norway was characterised by good weather with the occasional overcast and showery period but nothing like the absolute grot the UK has experienced during its unsettled periods this year. The UK has just had the 12th wettest autumn on record going by HadUKP data where records go back to 1766 and December has been a very cloudy and wet month so far with no settled weather in sight.
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3 minutes ago, Metwatch said:
2019 was cloudless most of the day here and southwards, remember it quite well very pleasant. Reached to 8C.
2020 I think was colder, but had a very vibrant sunset after some sunshine. Before those have to go back to 2014 for anything sunny.
Except for the clag over NW England which seems to be a feature of modern day Christmas periods when I make plans to do some hillwalking whilst staying with family up there.
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2 hours ago, SollyOlly said:
The very worst type of 'winter' (I wish) weather. Grey...drizzly...and endlessly mild! Nothing seasonal about this at all...and although I am far from being an expert in reading models, it doesn't look as though there's much hope on the horizon either. It's beginning to feel as though those lovely snowy Xmas card scenes are taking the proverbial, now...
Widespread lying snow on Christmas day is very rare, the last time it happened was 2010 and that was the coldest December for a century, that is what it takes to get classic Christmas card scenes in most of the UK. We have a temperate climate with mild winters and warm summers, not a continental climate with extreme winter cold followed by blazing summer heat. Hankering for scenes that reflect the climate during the little ice age and claiming it is taking the proverbial when it doesn't happen is like me saying it is taking the proverbial when I bought a lottery ticket every week this year and didn't win the jackpot.
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Usual heavy overcast lights on all day grot in Sussex this weekend. I know that December is not notable for brightness but the first half of this month seems to have been incredibly dull. Even the cold period failed to produce much beyond cool and dull. We have at least passed the date of the earliest sunset and am hoping for a break from the monononous damp conditions in the new year that have been locked in place since mid September so I can get started on weekend training hikes.
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I'm seeing little other that a generally changeable Atlantic dominated regime with mild and often wet weather out until well into January once this brief drier blip has passed. Occasional brief colder conditions as the UK lies near the boundary of mild and cold air masses with occasional snow especially over high ground, but nothing worth getting excited about, just the typical fleeting cold/snow in between milder periods.
ECMWF | Charts
CHARTS.ECMWF.INT
Weather anomaly in Europe - Forecast - met.hu
WWW.MET.HU
Időjárás, Megfigyelések, Előrejelzés, Éghajlat, Balatoni széladatok, Balatoni viharjelzés, Vízhőmérsékletek, METAR, TAF, UV-B sugárzás, Műhold, Radar, Égkép, Napkelte, Napnyugta, Holdkelte, Holdnyugta...Sorry, but if you are after a winter wonderland, go to Scandinavia, and I don't class an inch of snow followed by a quick thaw as a winter wonderland.
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1 hour ago, stainesbloke said:
Always beggars belief on here when some people moan about ‘too much sunshine’
in the UK. Really. As an average for the country as a whole, over 65% of annual daylight is cloudy. Pretty grim.
I don't recall anyone complaining about too much sunshine. I do hear complaints of not enough rain when we have six months of below average rainfall followed by a three week long spell of 25+C and not a drop of rain which is a very different thing. I suggest that anyone who doesn't get the complaints of persistent dry weather in spring and summer should try growing their own food instead of paying someone else to do it for them.
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13 minutes ago, JoeShmoe said:
That’s nuts / worrying for this time of year with the sun so low
Was it down to advection of very warm air from north Africa?
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18 minutes ago, Freeze said:
Oh I realise that, what I mean is, last year there were practically no named storms anywhere even though there were quite a few vicious storms. This year they seemed to have lowered the bar required to name one. Maybe I'm wrong?
Last winter was very quiet for storminess, the previous winter (2021-22) was more stormy.
UK Storm Season 2022/23
WWW.METOFFICE.GOV.UK
A summary of all the named storms from the 2022/23 storm season in the UK.
UK storm season 2021/22
WWW.METOFFICE.GOV.UK
A summary of all the named storms from the 2021/22 storm season in the UK.-
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After more delays on the trains this evening I found my cycle route home that normally goes over the river was now in the river. I didn't think there had been that much rain today but Horsham may have got hammered with more frequent heavy rain than London.
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On 05/12/2023 at 02:12, LetItSnow! said:
Not sure why anyone would disagree with this. I’ve previously stated that I believe that two averages should be used concurrently - A 1901-2000 average and the most recent 30 year average. It keeps things in perspective.
A rolling 30-year average better represents the current climate when there is a long term warming trend. Using a 1901-2000 average the probability of above an above-average monthly temperature is likely well over 50%, which leads to the "what are you complaining about the CET was above average" responses to complaints about a summer month with double the normal rainfall. For my seasonal forecasting work (tropical cyclones) I am using 1991-2020 climatologies.
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Looks like we are heading for the fourth consecutive wet month, which would mean five out of the last six months have been wetter than average with August around average. That is one good thing about Christmas for me, it provides some uplifting of spirits during what is often a grotty time of year weatherwise.
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8 hours ago, *Stormforce~beka* said:
Right down the list! Awful!
I have noticed that Charlwood often seems to be duller than other stations in SE England. Is there an exposure issue at that station? I think it has even showed up in the Met Office monthly anomaly maps once or twice, a darker grey blob in that immediate location.
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23 hours ago, Alderc 2.0 said:
Lol - don’t kid yourself, by the time we get 5 dry, warm days in May the moaning will start ‘my courgettes are wilting’ and by the time the brown grass appears it’ll be full on meltdown.
However off course we all know every single water shortage in the last 20-30yrs is due to nothing other the mass mismanagement of the plentiful rainfall we receive.
Don't exaggerate, I can manage without five days of rain but five weeks of hardly a drop like we have had frequently since 2018 inclusive is different, and even with 1000 litres of stored rainwater on my allotment I run dry. Water shortages may be partly due to mismanagement but I disagree that is the only factor. From the end of 2021 and through much of 2022 we had close to a full year of persistent below average rainfall, and when you pack a large bulk of the population into one corner of the country because that is where the best well paid jobs are, a corner of the country lacking in large scale water storage availability compared to more hilly areas further north and west, you have a situation where there is very little slack between supply and demand, and even modest perturbations cause problems (exactly the same sort of thing happens on the UK's transport networks).
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23 hours ago, In Absence of True Seasons said:
Indeed, reality is - whether its 2c or 10c - the heating will still be on, and its not mild enough in any case to be pleasant - especially as whenever its 10c in December in England it's also accompanied by constant drizzle lol.
Better to sacrifice those few degrees of mildness if means dry + sunny conditions IMO. Which, for our climate, 9/10 times it does. Very rare in my are to have December days that are mild that aren't also completely overcast and (most likely) raining. The two tend to go hand in hand unfortunately.
If only it were that simple. Here in Horsham the recent cold spell has been dominated by lights-on-all-day clag bringing the worst of all worlds, higher heating bills through low daytime temperatures and no sun to provide some passive warming of the house. If it is a choice between 2C and clag or 10C and clag, I'd go for the latter any time, and since the energy consumption of central heating is proportional to the temperature difference between the outside and inside, energy consumption will be lower for the latter.
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6 hours ago, Sun Chaser said:
Definitely not if the spring also followed!
I remember spring 2013 well, it was my first year of cultivating an allotment and I was immediately a month behind cultivation thanks to the ridiculous March and early April. Could have been worse, I could have taken the allotment on in 2012.
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Well that was a lovely cold spell for the SE, at least half the days needing the lights on all day and the occasional day with hours of rain, although there was the occasional nice sunny day (mostly when I was in the office of course). Such a change from the lights on all day clag and days with hours of rain we saw in the autumn. I appreciate it has been much more interesting further north where significant snow has fallen, but I imagine even there people don't appreciate taking hours to do a 30 minute journey or having to abandon their cars.
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9 hours ago, NEVES SCREAMER said:
It's done nothing but rain all year Beka. Can't remember a year like it for ages. No sustained dry spells. Just rain. And today .....well .... just cold and wet. If it's gonna be cold at least be dry with it.
June? Early September heatwave?
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If this was a good autumn, I'd hate to experience a bad one. Ridiculous uncomfortable heat to start with followed by three consecutive wetter than average months is not what I would call a good autumn. Finally had a respite from the damp with the cold spell at the end of this month, whoopie-do, but at least half this cold spell so far has been lights-on-all-day dull.
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18 minutes ago, AderynCoch said:
I know it's still only November but this winter feels like a sick joke already.
Winter hasn't started yet. That is like complaining about the performance of your favourite football team a few minutes before kick off.
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On 27/11/2023 at 22:41, Weather Enthusiast91 said:
With all due respect, if it gripes you that much then you are probably in the wrong place. Being a forum for weather enthusiasts, people getting excited over the prospect of extremes (during both summer and winter) is surely to be expected, is it not? It would be like joining a gaming forum and complaining about people showing great enthusiasm in a game.
We all know that extreme cold is more unlikely rather than likely these days, but there is no harm in getting excited over the prospect.
I get it but it is not any old extremes it is a very narrow selection of extremes. I don't recall anyone on here getting excited about storm Ciaran and wishing it would track 100 miles further north to slam southern England with another October 1987 repeat, or becoming ecstatic over one of the wettest July's on record, or the wonders of a southerly displaced jet stream steering low after low over England and Wales. Did anyone love the wettest April to July on record in 2012 or storm Desmond and its record breaking rainfall in 2015?
I also get the gripes because extremes nearly always cause major inconvenience, disruption or at worst, death and destruction. The UK can barely manage in near normal weather sometimes without something going tits up. When drooling over an extreme event it is easy to forget there are people suffering because of it, so some empathy is also reasonable.
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3 hours ago, CharlieBear9 said:
Very nice.
Autumn seems to be the "shortest" season by far nowadays, at least, what's left of it does.
Down here in Sussex it seems to last from October to March.
Sunshine level watch July 2023
in Spring Weather Discussion
Posted
Nine hours of sun at Charlwood in the first three weeks of the month, that matches my perception it has been a very dull month in Horsham. I hope the entire winter isn't going to be like this, we've had enough of it now.