al78

Nine hours of sun at Charlwood in the first three weeks of the month, that matches my perception it has been a very dull month in Horsham. I hope the entire winter isn't going to be like this, we've had enough of it now.

Certainly doesn't feel like that here in Horsham. Everywhere has been wet for weeks and this month I doubt we have reached double figure sunshine accumulation yet.

One thing that is off is the lack of any prolonged settled weather since September and the constant barrage of low pressure weather systems which have primed parts of the UK for a major flood event. This is why England+Wales has had its 12th wettest autumn in records going back to 1766 and why the full December average rainfall has been reached with eight full days of the month left. It is not just the rain, it feels like the last three months have been very dull especially December so far. It doesn't feel like Christmas because it is autumn weather, more like early November than late December.

Bear in mind a 10-year average will be more heavily influenced by one extreme year than a 30-year average.

It has to be said though the weather in the UK this year has been a combination of quirky and dismal even by UK climatology standards. I went to Jotunheimen Norway for a week in July and on the first day of walking it felt like a SE England heatwave, in a mountain plateau environment at an altitude equivalent to the Cairngorms, which was not what I was expecting. Meanwhile back home the UK was in the process of having one of the wettest July's on record. Much of my holiday in Norway was characterised by good weather with the occasional overcast and showery period but nothing like the absolute grot the UK has experienced during its unsettled periods this year. The UK has just had the 12th wettest autumn on record going by HadUKP data where records go back to 1766 and December has been a very cloudy and wet month so far with no settled weather in sight.

Except for the clag over NW England which seems to be a feature of modern day Christmas periods when I make plans to do some hillwalking whilst staying with family up there.

Widespread lying snow on Christmas day is very rare, the last time it happened was 2010 and that was the coldest December for a century, that is what it takes to get classic Christmas card scenes in most of the UK. We have a temperate climate with mild winters and warm summers, not a continental climate with extreme winter cold followed by blazing summer heat. Hankering for scenes that reflect the climate during the little ice age and claiming it is taking the proverbial when it doesn't happen is like me saying it is taking the proverbial when I bought a lottery ticket every week this year and didn't win the jackpot.

Usual heavy overcast lights on all day grot in Sussex this weekend. I know that December is not notable for brightness but the first half of this month seems to have been incredibly dull. Even the cold period failed to produce much beyond cool and dull. We have at least passed the date of the earliest sunset and am hoping for a break from the monononous damp conditions in the new year that have been locked in place since mid September so I can get started on weekend training hikes.

I'm seeing little other that a generally changeable Atlantic dominated regime with mild and often wet weather out until well into January once this brief drier blip has passed. Occasional brief colder conditions as the UK lies near the boundary of mild and cold air masses with occasional snow especially over high ground, but nothing worth getting excited about, just the typical fleeting cold/snow in between milder periods. ECMWF | Charts CHARTS.ECMWF.INT Weather anomaly in Europe - Forecast - met.hu WWW.MET.HU Időjárás, Megfigyelések, Előrejelzés, Éghajlat, Balatoni széladatok, Balatoni viharjelzés, Vízhőmérsékletek, METAR, TAF, UV-B sugárzás, Műhold, Radar, Égkép, Napkelte, Napnyugta, Holdkelte, Holdnyugta... Sorry, but if you are after a winter wonderland, go to Scandinavia, and I don't class an inch of snow followed by a quick thaw as a winter wonderland.

I don't recall anyone complaining about too much sunshine. I do hear complaints of not enough rain when we have six months of below average rainfall followed by a three week long spell of 25+C and not a drop of rain which is a very different thing. I suggest that anyone who doesn't get the complaints of persistent dry weather in spring and summer should try growing their own food instead of paying someone else to do it for them.

Was it down to advection of very warm air from north Africa?

Last winter was very quiet for storminess, the previous winter (2021-22) was more stormy. UK Storm Season 2022/23 WWW.METOFFICE.GOV.UK A summary of all the named storms from the 2022/23 storm season in the UK. UK storm season 2021/22 WWW.METOFFICE.GOV.UK A summary of all the named storms from the 2021/22 storm season in the UK.

After more delays on the trains this evening I found my cycle route home that normally goes over the river was now in the river. I didn't think there had been that much rain today but Horsham may have got hammered with more frequent heavy rain than London.

A rolling 30-year average better represents the current climate when there is a long term warming trend. Using a 1901-2000 average the probability of above an above-average monthly temperature is likely well over 50%, which leads to the "what are you complaining about the CET was above average" responses to complaints about a summer month with double the normal rainfall. For my seasonal forecasting work (tropical cyclones) I am using 1991-2020 climatologies.

Looks like we are heading for the fourth consecutive wet month, which would mean five out of the last six months have been wetter than average with August around average. That is one good thing about Christmas for me, it provides some uplifting of spirits during what is often a grotty time of year weatherwise.

I have noticed that Charlwood often seems to be duller than other stations in SE England. Is there an exposure issue at that station? I think it has even showed up in the Met Office monthly anomaly maps once or twice, a darker grey blob in that immediate location.

Don't exaggerate, I can manage without five days of rain but five weeks of hardly a drop like we have had frequently since 2018 inclusive is different, and even with 1000 litres of stored rainwater on my allotment I run dry. Water shortages may be partly due to mismanagement but I disagree that is the only factor. From the end of 2021 and through much of 2022 we had close to a full year of persistent below average rainfall, and when you pack a large bulk of the population into one corner of the country because that is where the best well paid jobs are, a corner of the country lacking in large scale water storage availability compared to more hilly areas further north and west, you have a situation where there is very little slack between supply and demand, and even modest perturbations cause problems (exactly the same sort of thing happens on the UK's transport networks).

If only it were that simple. Here in Horsham the recent cold spell has been dominated by lights-on-all-day clag bringing the worst of all worlds, higher heating bills through low daytime temperatures and no sun to provide some passive warming of the house. If it is a choice between 2C and clag or 10C and clag, I'd go for the latter any time, and since the energy consumption of central heating is proportional to the temperature difference between the outside and inside, energy consumption will be lower for the latter.

I remember spring 2013 well, it was my first year of cultivating an allotment and I was immediately a month behind cultivation thanks to the ridiculous March and early April. Could have been worse, I could have taken the allotment on in 2012.

Well that was a lovely cold spell for the SE, at least half the days needing the lights on all day and the occasional day with hours of rain, although there was the occasional nice sunny day (mostly when I was in the office of course). Such a change from the lights on all day clag and days with hours of rain we saw in the autumn. I appreciate it has been much more interesting further north where significant snow has fallen, but I imagine even there people don't appreciate taking hours to do a 30 minute journey or having to abandon their cars.

June? Early September heatwave?

If this was a good autumn, I'd hate to experience a bad one. Ridiculous uncomfortable heat to start with followed by three consecutive wetter than average months is not what I would call a good autumn. Finally had a respite from the damp with the cold spell at the end of this month, whoopie-do, but at least half this cold spell so far has been lights-on-all-day dull.

Winter hasn't started yet. That is like complaining about the performance of your favourite football team a few minutes before kick off.

I get it but it is not any old extremes it is a very narrow selection of extremes. I don't recall anyone on here getting excited about storm Ciaran and wishing it would track 100 miles further north to slam southern England with another October 1987 repeat, or becoming ecstatic over one of the wettest July's on record, or the wonders of a southerly displaced jet stream steering low after low over England and Wales. Did anyone love the wettest April to July on record in 2012 or storm Desmond and its record breaking rainfall in 2015? I also get the gripes because extremes nearly always cause major inconvenience, disruption or at worst, death and destruction. The UK can barely manage in near normal weather sometimes without something going tits up. When drooling over an extreme event it is easy to forget there are people suffering because of it, so some empathy is also reasonable.

Down here in Sussex it seems to last from October to March.