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al78

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Everything posted by al78

  1. So far July has been notable for extremely dull days. It is ridiculous to need lighting on at solar noon in summer. Fortunately in my location the dull days have been interspersed with sunny days, except for the last two days of back to back clagfests. The dullness really makes it feel like autumn, as it feels like twilight has arrived an hour and a half before sunset. The gem squash in my greenhouse doesn't know whose climate it is experiencing. It went rampant in April and May, and I had problems with the greenhouse overheating (well over 40C on some days before I applied shading paint)
  2. Well, yes, that would be well above average in early March. Early March is still effectively winter, plant life doesn't wake up properly until near the end of the month and when the soil temperature starts to warm up.
  3. There was a fair bit of spatial variation. It was a very wet month in the SW, but the SE counties had near average sunshine and rainfall. Hot and sunny days have always been short lived in summer, the UK is not the Mediterranean, despite the spring we've just had.
  4. Yes you can. It might not have much, if any skill, but you can do one if you can find a predictor or two. There have been several attempts at seasonal forecasts for the winter NAO and UK winter.
  5. You have to be careful looking at monthly averages, because they tell you nothing about the internal variability within the month. A summer month that is dry for 29 days in one location then gets a severe thunderstorm on the last day dropping four inches of rain will look like a wet month in the stats, when really it isn't, whereas a month with frequent warm sector clag and drizzle and 40% less sunshine than normal, but an absence of moderate to heavy rain might end up drier than average, but it would be a poor summer month in most peoples eyes.
  6. I can relate to this. I don't like persistent clag in summer but I much prefer 20C to the 32C nonsense we had at the end of June. It is just so much easier to do stuff outside and sleep comfortably at night.
  7. June was warmer than average, although wetter. We are not even half way through summer yet so best to reserve judgement of the seasonal forecasts until after the season has finished.
  8. June was about average or slightly above in the south and east, Duller than average in the SW and NW England, west Wales, N Ireland and most of Scotland (again). UK actual and anomaly maps WWW.METOFFICE.GOV.UK Maps of climate variables for previous months, seasons and years
  9. This is what is annoying for me. I could do with a good dose of rain for my allotment, but instead we get this change in the weather (expected at some point), that brings cloudy, cool and unsettled weather, but the rainfall amounts have been pitiful. It just evaporates within an hour of falling. If we are going to get November weather, might as well have November rain as well, but this cuirrent can't-be-bothered-to-drop-more-than-half-a-millimeter-at-a-time weather, and me having to manually cart around 100 litres of water to keep my crops alive is just another UK Swearing AGAIN-take, on top o
  10. 1996 an average summer? Not in Salford it wasn't. It was overshadowed by the spectacular summer the previous year but it was warm and dry from my memory, particularly August. It is ranked 29th driest out of 254 in the HadUKP data and about 100th out of 361 for temperature, so above average in terms of goodness of summer.
  11. Daily Express, so likely the most extreme forecast they could find.
  12. Maybe not for you, but it has for me, not as bad as a muggy night in high summer, but just warm enough that I struggled to sleep several times. There were some nights where it didn't drop below mid teens outside, which means my house stays at 23C most of the night, probably a bit higher in the bedroom as my central heating thermostat which shows the indoor temperature is downstairs. Opening the windows means I struggle to get to sleep because of noisy bastards.
  13. Ok sorry, I thought you were having unrealistic expectations of the weather in the dark months, but you are saying that you appreciate warmth and sunshine because we have to deal with the autumn and winter grot. I certainly don't expect you to justify that, as I feel the same. Sometimes Spring feels like a tease season, when it gets to April, I hope for it to become warm enough to go outside without a jacket, but it seems to stay in the low double digits during the day for seemingly a long time, and I wonder if it is ever going to warm up. It nearly always does by the end of the month and into
  14. Already had thunderstorms in Horsham, one Saturday morning/early afternoon in mid May. The only significant rain to fall in the entire month. I can appreciate a good electrical storm, but preferably not overnight. I don't appreciate being kept awake until 3am when I have to get up for work.
  15. Too much damp I agree with but too much cool? What do you expect in the UK in autumn and winter? We can't have 20C in February every year.
  16. Looks like another week of below average daytime temperatures for Horsham coming up, but still little in the way of useful rain. At this rate, June is going to be cooler than May and April. Has southern England borrowed an arid climate from the southern hemisphere? I'm finding it tough growing UK veg in these conditions. I do find the cooler nights better for sleeping, which is one plus.
  17. Not a drop of rain in Horsham, and the Met Office have cancelled the wet evening that had been forecast the last two days, so another evening of dumping 200 litres of water on my allotment. No significant rain forecast for the next week, just a load of cool cloudy,dry, and completely useless weather. It is hard to cultivate UK crops in an arid climate.
  18. Classic UK p**s-take weather. Yes the August bank holiday will be awful, because I have booked a scrambling course in Snowdonia over that weekend, and given I picked the worst two week period last year to go backpacking in Scotland, the late 90's/2000's trend of crap weather whenever I want to hike up a UK mountain may have returned.
  19. The first half of May contained that annoying colder spell which produced frequent overnight frosts and fairly low daytime maxes, and was a nuisance for gardeners. Here in Horsham, there were more cold nights with ground frost risk than I can remember during the whole winter, which is why my potato crop got damaged despite earthing up. Up to that point, there was hardly any frost.
  20. Similar in that it was locked in for months , but the geopotential height anomaly through October 2019-February 2020 was indicative of a strong persistent positive NAO/AO signal, but with the centre of the low pressure anomaly shifted south over the UK, not a stagnant zonal wavetrain.
  21. I had a play on the NCEP NCAR composite plotting tool, and got out the surface pressure anomaly and 700mb geopotential height anomaly average over 1st April to 25th May. What we are experiencing seems to be part of a global wavetrain, with most of NW Europe under a ridge. There are regions either side (e.g. Eastern Arctic Canada) which have been under a trough, and I imagine there it has been a very wet spring. If the phase of this wavetrain had been shifted half a wavelength, the UK could be recording a record breaking wet spring, instead of a semi-arid one.
  22. Given how dry, warm and sunny April was in Scotland, coupled with the mild winter, will this mean less snow on the higher mountains in late Spring/early summer? I remember in 2017 there was barely a patch of snow even in the big corries of Braeriach where the semi-permanent patches can be found, but that was due to a lack of winter snow.
  23. That slow moving low and horrible full day of rain and November-like temperatures last Tuesday really bumped up the rainfall over central Southern England. Not surprised it ended up closer to average near me, that was the start of four consecutive wet days.
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