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Everything posted by al78

  1. You work in fog, or at the least have condensation running down the walls and dripping from the ceiling? The heat index from well over 30C and 100% humidity would be unlivable for humans if it were part of the climate. I can't help thinking you are sligfhtly exaggerating.
  2. It is deviation from average that matters, combined with the fact that at this time of year we have reached the climatological peak in temperrature, so on average the weather is only going to go downhill. At least if Winter and Spring is poor, you can hope for nice weather in summer. Wouldn't you say those who were flooded out in the relentless February rains are justified in complaining about it?
  3. That's fine, but I don't understand why people want the othe extreme, 25+C for weeks on end with zero rain unless it's a thunderstorm. It is as if they have no idea how crops are grown.
  4. Needs?? Why does it need to be a decent month? What are the consequences if it isn't? I'd be grateful for a decent weekend. Last week, Sunday was poor, this weekend Saturday is a washout. Another poke in the eye for people with weekday jobs.
  5. Since last weekend the weather has improved significantly here in Horsham (except Sunday which was a miserable drizzlefest). I've just looked at the data from my logger in my greenhouse on the allotment, and it gives clues as to why my dwarf beans are looking sickly. I have the door and a roof vent open to minimise daytime overheating but the overnight temperature has been dropping below 6C on a few nights. This is very poor for mid July in SE England away from any frost pockets.
  6. Nostalgia bias may be creeping in there. You are far more likely to remember the good summer periods from your childhood because you will likely have more memorable days. Sitting indoors reading a book with the rain lashing down outside is not going to stick in the mind decades later. This is why some older people claim their summers were always hot and sunny, and the winters were always cold and snowy. Nonsense, every winter in the past was not 1962/3 or 1947, and every summer was not 1976, the UK never had a continental climate 50 years ago, they are remembering the memorable periods and hav
  7. You are in the wrong country. A continental Koppen D climate is what you want.
  8. I would agree it hasn't been cold. 18-20C is not cold. Below average, yes, but not cold. Anyone who thinks that is cold must suffer 8-9 months of torture in our climate. The opinions of how good/bad the summer has been from someone who doesn't live here is meaningless, how could they possibly know unless they are making an effort to log daily observations from the area?
  9. You mean anyone with clear eyesight who lives down here. Someone living 300 miles away trying to tell me what the weather has been like down here can safely be ignored, unless it matches with real data.
  10. So what. A couple of years in your memory does not dictate a trend (that is why we look at all the data). There have been years where is hasn't happened as well. 2012 had a very wet April and the summer was dreadful.
  11. July has been a poor month in the SE full stop. I used to live in Salford so I am well accustomed to the clag-fests that plague that part of the country. Temperatures have been below average, sunshine has been below average. That is what makes it a poor summer month. Just because it has not been as bad as the NW does not stop it being a poor summer month. There always seems to be someone trying to apply the fallacy of relative privation, as though being better than the worst is good enough
  12. Thereis no correlation between April/May and the following summer weather.
  13. June was average over the SE, and in my area had the odd sunny day interspersed with cloudy days. The first half of the month was dry, the rain arrived in the second half. July has been a poor summer month, not as bad as the NW or Wales, but still poor. Struggling to get to 20C in SE England at the climatologically warmest time of the year, and 50 hours if sun in 15 days is a poor summer month. We've been blessed with two warm/hot sunny days, it is 17C and cloudy this morning, and is forecast to stay that temperature all day with no sun and occasional drizzle. That is characteristic of a tropi
  14. I agree. Friday and Saturday just gone is the only time I have felt proper warmth this month. Much of the month has been a clag-fest.
  15. Above average (25-26C) in the south east yesterday and today. Punishment weather comes in tomorrow.
  16. You could be right if a warming Arctic is leading to more high latitude blocking in summer, which tends to send the jet stream south over the UK or put the UK under a trough. I think the jury is out on whether that can be seen to be happening now though. It does seem that summer Greenland blocking has become more frequent since the very low Arctic sea ice extent in 2007. https://rmets.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1002/joc.4673 I would still say that even if UK summer months have become biased towards poorness, it does not justify automatically writing off this August, because
  17. If you toss a coin and it comes up heads 10 times in a row, does that mean it will come up heads next time? What happened last August, the August before that, or any of the previous 17 Augusts has no bearing on what this August will turn out like. The UK weather is not that predictable. Six out of the last 14 have been average or warmer than average. If you use tercile boundaries to define below average/average/above average, then over a large number of years, you would expect August to fall in each categor one third of the time. For 14 years, you should expect about 4-5 years of poo
  18. What makes you so certain that August will be bad?
  19. Going by CET since 1950: 1974/5 2017/8 It doesn't happen very often, that is because you are specifying exactly mild-mild-cold. There are more winters with one mild month and one or two cold or near average months.
  20. Far from clear: This is the wrong thread for this discussion though. In any case, sometimes the truth is inconvenient. Ignoring it or denying it doesn't make it go away, so best to deal with it. Will climate change bring benefits from reduced cold-related mortality? Insights from the latest epidemiological research « RealClimate WWW.REALCLIMATE.ORG Guest post by Veronika Huber Climate skeptics sometimes like to claim that although global warming will lead to more deaths from heat, it will overall save lives...
  21. That article is looking globally, not specifically the UK, and one poor summer does not defy projections.
  22. I haven't checked to see if someone has already posted this, but the 700mb geopotential height anomaly from 1st to 14th July looks like the anomalous northwesterly pattern, and explains why temperatures have been suppressed.
  23. The only reason why people get so excited about snow and heat/thunderstorms is because of its rarity in the UK. If we had a continental climate we'd get those every year and no-one would bat an eyelid.
  24. You must have been in a microclimate. Autumn last year was a damp clag-fest, the fifth wettest on record. November was below average in temperature but wasn't really cold. Record breaking rainfall - for some WWW.METOFFICE.GOV.UK Many people in England will remember Autumn 2019 as a very wet season, but this hasn’t been the case across the whole of the UK.
  25. There isn't any significant correlation between the temperature anomaly in September or October and the upcoming winter using the Central England Temperature data, at least from 1950-2019.
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