al78
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Posts posted by al78
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The north/south rainfall bias continues. March to date has seen above average rainfall relative to the whole month across SE England, whereas in parts of Scotland and Northern Ireland it has been much drier than normal so far.
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LetItSnow! Not sure I agree with that statement:
2022 European drought - Wikipedia
EN.WIKIPEDIA.ORG"July 2022 was the driest July in England since 1935."
"Parts of Yorkshire experienced their driest period on record and emergency pipes were laid."
"The Cornwall hosepipe ban continued to be active into 2023, and was extended to cover large parts of Devon on 25 April 2023. This was done in an attempt to replenish water levels at the Roadford Reservoir ahead of that year's summer."
Europe's drought on course to be worst for 500 years, European Union agency warns
NEWS.SKY.COM
This year is set to be even worse than in 2018, when unusually favourable conditions in some parts of the bloc protected it from drought elsewhere, and the worst since the sixteenth...And then there were the wildfires at the peak of the heat:
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kold weather SE England has remained wet through March, not as bad as February but to be good enough it is not sufficient to be better than the worst.
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Buzzard Meanwhile on trains in SE England it is common to hear people coughing their guts up and sounding like they should have stayed in bed, showing that nothing has been learnt from the pandemic and ensuring the next pandemic will be even worse.
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ANYWEATHER Although those stuck-in-a-rut periods seem to have become more common over the last decade or so.
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stainesbloke Massive exaggeration does your argument no favours. The fact is that whenever there are months of well below average rainfall water supplies become stressed. Whether it eventually balances out is irrelevant. The UK has poor resilience to deviations from normal because resources are overstretched and consumption is often wasteful because people take things for granted. Try growing your own food instead of paying someone else to do it for you and then lets see you trivialise three months of drought and periodic heatwaves in the growing season, or months of anomalous wet weather like last year.
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sundog Anyone who thinks 0.04% of anything isn't significant just because it looks like a small number should try 0.04% of arsenic in their coffee.
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baddieI remember March 2012 being a month of large contrasts between the start and end of the month. The first weekend I was playing bridge and it was sleeting outside. After the equinox I was sitting outside in warm sunshine in short sleeves during my afternoon tea break.
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East Lancs Rain "The weather always makes up for itself."
aka gamblers fallacy:
The Gambler’s Fallacy: What It Is and How to Avoid It – Effectiviology
EFFECTIVIOLOGY.COM-
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MP-R High pressure for a few hours would be a start.
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MP-R It has been better than February but has kind-of carried on regardless. According to HadUKP the EWP is at 20% of the monthly average after the first two days which so far represents a continuation of wetter than average conditions, following on from the third wettest consecutive 12 month period on record. It is no surprise people have had enough, being better than the worst does not make something good or even adequate.
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Alderc 2.0 March is a transition month, the first half is pretty much the end of winter and what we think of as spring weather rarely arrives before the equinox. After a year with a jet stream displaced further south than normal over the southern half of the UK, I'm hoping the increasing temperatures from now will encourage it to start migrating northward. Attached is the 250mb zonal wind anomaly over Europe from March 2023 to February 2024. It shows how ridiculously persistent the jet stream has been stuck over much of northern Europe over that time.
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Scorching sun. I find it energy sapping and therefore as useless as 24 hours of continuous rain for doing outdoor activities. It is also inevitably followed by warm nights which make sleeping very difficult and trying to do a days work feeling like I have semi-permanent jet-lag is unpleasant.
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Just been on a walk from Lewes to Hassocks and it was a beautiful day. Sunny intervals, calm, dry and a good temperature for hiking uphill without getting sweaty. There was a very good clarity in the air, the North Downs easily visible on the horizon from the South Downs Way. Clarity like this is very rare when I go walking during the summer months.
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cheeky_monkey The teleconnection between ENSO and UK winters is really a intra-seasonal link. El Nino has a modest link to more likely outbreaks of colder weather in the second half of the season but obviously that hasn't happened. The ENSO link is weak and will be dominated by other factors so it is not something to hedge your bets on in isolation.
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stainesbloke My perception living in Sussex is that southern England has had some pretty awful weather since the spectacular spring of 2020. The period seems to have featured a lot of locked in weather patterns, from persistent wet periods to bone dry and hot periods. There doesn't seem to have been very much happy medium weather.
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Cheshire Freeze No. The weather and climate does not try to balance out, it responds to forcings. If those forcings point towards pushing the jet stream over the UK, the UK continues to get unsettled weather. I don't think there is any correlation between summer and winter precipitation, although if the next 12 months were wetter than average it will likely be horrendous for flooding and agriculture.
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The England and Wales 12-month rainfall total (HadUKP data) for the period March 2023-February 2024 is 1327.4 mm.
I can only find two wetter 12 month periods in the records going back to 1766:
April 2012 - March 2013 (1331.5 mm)
April 2000 - March 2001 (1355.4 mm)
The former covers the fourth wettest summer on record and the latter covers the wettest autumn on record (using all records back to 1766).
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Metwatch I am giving a brief knowledge share to co-workers next Wednesday about the UK's and SE England's rainfall over the last year and I was going to look into rolling 12 month accumulations. The period March 2023 - Feb 2024 has got to be up there as one of the wettest such periods on record.
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Funnily enough the northern half of the UK hasn't been that wet relative to its climatology compared to the southern half. Last month according to HadUKP, SE England had double the rainfall of eastern Scotland which says something, climatologically they should be about the same.
I am really hoping for a prolonged dry spell now. I made good progress clearing and digging a new allotment in the cold dry spell in January and have managed to do almost nothing on it for the last month. I have got plenty of worked soil to plant potatoes later this month but if it keeps raining like this they will just rot in the ground. Don't cultivate heavy clay soil when it is wet they say, in that case when I am I ever going to be able to grow anything? I hope this is not going to be a seventh consecutive year of poor productivity. Is it really too much to ask to get a sustained period of weather within one standard deviation of climatology?
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raz.org.rain In the southern half of the country but even there, only a handful of times a year on average.
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"The wettest conditions are most likely to be in the south" So lather rinse repeat then.
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In Absence of True Seasons I wonder if a lot of the hyping on here is wanting things that you can't have most of the time. 30+C in summer. Heavy snow down to low levels in winter. Spectacular thunderstorms. Would people who drool over the prospect of snow do the same if they lived in Alaska or Scandinavia, and would people who crave heat crave it if 35C was an average daily max in summer? Somehow I doubt it.
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B87 What about strong advection of an Arctic air mass from well inside the Arctic circle? Something analagous to the beginning of June 1975.
Spring 2024
in Spring Weather Discussion
Posted
NEVES SCREAMER There was a prolonged dry spell from late May to late June, then in the first half of September here, but other than that, southern England has stolen the climate of Scotland.