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Posts posted by al78

  1. 10 hours ago, LRD said:

    I agree with much of that but not the bit I've bolded. I'm well aware of many of my childhood winters that were a bit 'meh' (but still would have had at least a week of snow even in the more boring winters - 1982-83 for example had some snow in Feb in an otherwise unspectacular winter). But I have menmories of 81-82 and the numbers and reports back me up. 84-85, 85-86 and 86-87 were all very good too as was 90-91 and 95-96 and Dec 96. So I'm not looking at this with nostalgic eyes. It's just fact.

    It's like summers - I remember the bad ones as well as the good ones

    The bit you bolded is a known phenomenon. People do look back on their childhood with a bias. The reason is that cold snowy winters mean you are out sledging, having snowball fights, and having a more memorable time. Hot sunny summers mean you are playing on the beach or playing football outside. In other words, having a more memorable day. Slate grey days with the rain pouring down for hours whilst you sit indoors reading a book are not likely to stick in the mind decades later, despite that characterising much of the UK weather in the GMT portion of the year.


    Nostalgia and Rose Colored Glasses: Why Past Times Aren't Always Better. Thinking about calling your old ex? Missing the good old college days? Here is why we always remember the past better than it was. Let’s...


  2. 1 hour ago, Skullzrulerz said:

    I totally forgotten what is a cold spell again ?

    It is that period when contributors on weather forums across the net start having perpetual orgasms over the GFS forecasts, and when people (usually living in the north of England/Scotland) falsely claim the south of England grinds to a halt from an inch of snow.

    • Like 1
  3. 2 minutes ago, mathematician said:

    So what? That has nothing to do with the fact that Global Warming is real and scientifically proven. People make millions selling cars. Does that mean that they are not real?


    Climate denier! LOL 

    Maybe you are right and I am too gullible , believe it or not I even believe we have been on the moon! How silly of me! 


    It is laughable the implication that global warming must be made up because someone somewhere makes money because of it, whilst ignoring the billions made from consumption of fossil fuels and spreading lies and disinformation.

    In any case, you can;t convince someone of the truth of something, when there salary or identity demands it is false.

    • Like 5
  4. 5 minutes ago, LRD said:

    I think you're saying exactly what me and the Met Office are saying but in a different way. I don't think we're disagreeing at all. The bit you've said that I've bolded essentially is saying that snow is less and less likely cos the conditions have to be almost perfect

    Yes we agree, what I am clarifying is I don't think snowy periods in UK winters will disappear entirely, just that the return period will increase, similarly the return period for extreme summer heat will decrease.

    • Like 1
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  5. 27 minutes ago, Relativistic said:

    That string of 80s Winters (1981-1987) were not typical for the 20th century, but very much on the cold side. If you grew up then then maybe your expectations are a tad too high. I was a teenager during the 2009-2013 run and I came to expect frequent snowfalls and prolonged cold spells every year. Winter 2013/14 was a real shock to the system; the idea of no lying snow at any point during the Winter was unfathomable!

    I was born in 1978 and I remember snowy periods when I was in primary school, making slides and rolling big snowballs. Your past memories are going to be a product of where you were brought up. I was born and raised in Salford which tends to be one of the last places to get snow if there is a cold snap, and when it does get snow it is the 1-2 inches that thaws within a day (like lowland southern England). It takes a proper severe winter spell to get substantial snow around lowland Gtr Manchester, something like Dec 1995 or Dec/Jan 2010. My past weather memories is biased toward the 1990's decade which was characterised by positive NAO winters, mild, wet, stormy, and a couple of superb summers in 1995 and 1996 (the former a bit too good).

    • Like 1
  6. 4 hours ago, LRD said:

    There were people mocking the Met Office for saying that snow will be a thing of the past by the 2040s if global warming is not slowed down. Calling it propaganda. Well, all you need to see is what's gone before and with the trajectory we are on - and have been since the last 80s - that is a very real possibility

    I personally think that is overstating it, Polar and Arctic air masses will still exist in winter in the 2040's, those regions are still going to be cold enough. It is just the conditions to advect the cold across to the UK along with moisture and uplift required for snow rather than sleet and rain are going to need to be even more optimal than now, so the frequency of major snowfalls will decrease.

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  7. 4 hours ago, LRD said:

    Vortex over Greenland - UK mild and wet in winter

    Vortex not over Greenland - UK mild and wet in winter

    Hugely impressive negative AO forecast - the charts are showing mild and wet for the UK

    I know the climate has changed and continues to warm but you'd think we'd still get some winters of note every so often


    We will, but there is no denying that a warming climate will make significant snow events less likely, and they were never very likely to begin with, despite the nostalgia bias claiming all winters in your grandmothers day were cold and snowy. The UK has always been marginal for lying snow in winter, because cold air masses are almost always near the freezing point when they arrive here, so you need several conditions to come together for widespread prolonged snowfall, which is low probability. It is the same with summer heat, there is a reason 35+C doesn't happen often. Having said that, by the laws of probability, very cold air masses will bring a decent snowfall to large parts of the UK, because the near continent will always be cold enough in an average winter, so strong cold advection from the continent combined with a Biscay low running into the cold air will bring heavy and disruptive snow to the southern counties. The thing is now, with a warmer climate than 50 years ago, what would have brought heavy snow back then might only bring cold rain and sleet now because we are always marginal for proper snow. There was a day in February 2010 when it rained all day and the temperature was 1-2C. I couldn't help thinking at the time that if it had been the 1960's, the south would have had nearly a foot of snow.

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  8. 59 minutes ago, Froze were the Days said:

    In my location I didn't think November was too bad, we did have some sunny days and it was drier than normal but it feels we're back in the rut of not seeing any sun and most days are grey and damp and now looks like becoming somewhat milder...winter's over! 😉

    It has been pretty bad in Sussex. According to the Met Office monthly anomaly maps my area had no more than half the average sunshine in October and November combined, and December is turning into the third consecutive dull month. For five months of the year the UK climate is something to endure.

  9. The only good thing about November is it hasn't been as wet as October, but I can't remember a two month period where I've had to have the lights on indoors all day so many times. Oh hang on, yes I do, it was last autumn. 🙄

    It has been an odd month, the frequent, almost persistent overcast has kept the overnight temperatures elevated, sometimes to the point where there is only a 2-3 degree variation between the max and the min. It has been a month to endure and just get through, at least I will enjoy some of the Christmas festivities in December no matter what the weather does.

  10. On 18/11/2020 at 06:10, John88B said:

    I seem to be in the minority here but I love this time of year. The dark nights, the looking forward to Christmas and the hopes, often dashed, of some proper cold winter weather to come.

    If we lived in a place where a cold winter was almost guaranteed we wouldn't enjoy the thrill of the chase or the joy of when proper winter weather does arrive.

    I too enjoy the build up to Christmas, although these days it seems to be an anti-climax when it arrives, because it is a long build up, then over in the blink of an eye. The last six weeks of weather have been miserable, October was like last year another claggy rain-fest, we've had one week of anticyclonic weather in November with a bit of sun then back to the lights on all day weather. For maximum annoyance, the weekends over the last five or six weeks have tended to be wet, so it is has been difficult to do any autumn work on my allotment, the clay soil gets sodden when nearly every day has some rain.

    The thrill of the chase for proper winter weather in this country is like watching a Bond film for the 50th time. There are some momentary exciting twists and turns, but we all know what's going to happen in the end.

    • Like 1
  11. 15 minutes ago, NEVES SCREAMER said:

    Another weekend. Another named storm. Was it February? 4 Saturdays. 3 Saturdays with a named storm. Now another one. What is it in the UK with weekends and abysmal weather.

    Tell me about it. Yes it was February where the named storms coincided with weekends, and when I was trying to erect a greenhouse on my allotment. Twice I had roof panels displaced or ripped off (thankfully polycarbonate, not glass), and I had to bodge an engineering solution consisting of L shaped brackets and drilling holes into the frame to bolt the panels down, then use a very strong adhesive around every roof and side pane to seal them all in. My greenhouse might withstand the equivalent of an October 1987 storm now.

    The weather now seems to be trolling me with the forecast of sunny days next week when I am working at home after what looks to be a very wet and sunless weekend.

  12. Well October was a pile of crap in my part of Sussex. Rain rain rain rain rain dull dull dull dull dull. Another month with several 12-24 hour rainfests and lights-on-all-day days. To make it even more crap, the weekend wet weather bias seems to be kicking in, this is going to be the third consecutive weekend being mostly wet or at least very unsettled, with Sunday looking to be another full day of rain. It has gone like last year, roaring zonality with almost no high pressure. Sadly November looks to be starting in a similar manner, having the sunny days in the week when I am working ☹️. The final clearing up on the allotment will have to wait a bit longer. What makes it worse it wee might have another four months of this if we have another +ve AO/NAO dominated winter, just what I need to look forward too when faced with the prospect of not being able to visit my family over Christmas.

  13. 15 hours ago, Weather Enthusiast91 said:

    Agreed. Having warm (or even hot) sunny weather during September isn't enough to make it feel summery. Let's take that very warm spell we had at the end of Sept 2011 and into October. Whilst it was a fantastic spell for the time of year, it was still pretty obvious that it was indeed autumn. The surrounding nature, the weakening of the sun, taking much longer (or not getting one at all) to get a suntan and the rapidly declining daylight hours told me what season we were really in. 

    It is the same as having unseasonably cold weather during March and April not feeling like winter.

    I'd tend to agree. It feels like summer until the sun goes down at half past six. The 30C at the end of September was spectacular, I don't recall it ever feeling so warm outside so late in the year before or since.

  14. On 04/09/2020 at 14:24, Harry233 said:

    North west highlands are extremely wet. 14 days of rain in a row seems very typical. Most parts of the north west highlands receive over 100 inches of rain a year. Glasgow which is the wettest City in the UK receive half of that.  

    14 days of rain in the highlands is unlucky based on my experience of many summer holidays up there. Even last June when I was there for a fortnight and had to endure the summer killer known as the stagnated low pressure over the UK, I didn't get rained on much, the main features of the weather were the cool temperatures and near constant clag, and being on the Ullapool-Stornoway ferry in a NEly gale, perfect for sending a sizeable swell between the islands and mainland (one way to mitigate seasickness is to look outside to the horizon).

  15. 2 minutes ago, Alderc said:

    Sat at my desk my in lounge, temp at desk is 31.9C currently. I'm still enjoying though.....More people openly moan about things I find and post they are managing, enjoying things...just my thoughts but I do understand not everyone likes it but for those at least they usually have 5-15days per year to get through verses those that don't like cold and rain have 250+days plus to deal with it.....basically its a case of get over it lol. 

    I'll take the same attitude when you spend the autumn, winter and spring moaning about cloud and rain - get over it, it's the UK, what do you expect?

    People are going to complain about conditions that are uncomfortable or destructive, regardless of whether you personally enjoy such conditions, deal with it.

    • Like 4
  16. 37 minutes ago, Sunny76 said:

    I agree.

    After weeks of crappy cloudy and sometimes coolish weather, a couple of weeks of very warm to hot weather, and Marky is moaning.

    When it gets stupidly hot like the last week, I appreciate the crappy cloudy weather more. I can garden in comfort, cycle in comfort, and sleep in comfort in crappy cloudy weather.

    • Like 3
  17. On 04/08/2020 at 12:10, Sunny76 said:

    I think it’s a bit premature to be wishing for autumn weather. 

    We’ve barely had a large amount of decent summer weather, and August the last time I checked, was a summer month.

    I really hope it doesn’t cool off until the early or even middle part of September.

    I'm not wishing for autumn weather, but I am wishing for a cooldown. This weather is useless, too hot to do anything useful outside. It can be decent without being extreme, there is such a thing as a happy medium.

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