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Bedknobs and Boomsticks

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  1. From what I've read, WWII was all about Germany wanting to open up its border with France.
  2. This says to me that there are a good 10,000 undetected cases in the lower age cohorts. Probably need to double the number of cases at least
  3. Actually.... Express Bingo EXPRESSBINGO.ORG.UK The Daily Express front page recycles the same dozen themes – and sometimes the same stories – over and over. Track them here.
  4. Christ things must be bad if The Express has switched from feear mongering to false hope!
  5. I'm sad to say that people aren't getting it when they say that we could end up like Italy if we aren't careful. Even if we assume that tens of thousands are infected in Lombardy, that is still less than 1% of the population. Assuming that it can't be contained, as everyone seems to think, then the virus will only die off when many tens of percent of the population have become infected (say 40 to 80%). Unless we want to go into full lock down mode for the next 12 to 18 months while a vaccine is sorted, we can pretty much guarantee that something far worse than Italy is already inevitable. To mix my metaphors, the debate is do we want to try to fight the rising tide in the hope of a life raft, or cut people adrift and get through it as quickly as possible. If Lombardy is already drowning under less than 1% infection, is there any point in dragging that situation out for many months until we hit herd immunity? Who'd want to lead at times like this. We're effectively in wartime levels of descision making. And on a linked note about the lack of action at the moment, it's all very well talking about flattening the curve, but if you zoom out to take in the entire likely outbreak, the bit we are on right now already looks flat. None of this is what I expected to think, but I'm wavering between thinking that the response is genius or lunacy. Only time will tell.
  6. That may well include people in the incubation period.
  7. Absolutely brutally correct. The only way to control it is for about 40 to 80% of the population to have been infected (I have a model). That's 25 to 50 million people: 2.5 to 5 million needing hospital treatment over the course of a few months. Feeling pretty bleak TBH.
  8. Or that Italy has missed an awful lot of cases. A lot of the European cases seem to have stemmed from Italy, suggesting both that they should be the same strain, and that there are a hell of a lot of Italians infected for travellers to catch it off. I hope so anyway.
  9. Mark, Probably just dermatitis. I get something very similar. Your GP should be able to prescribe you with some steroid cream, which always clears mine up sharpish.
  10. New poster here; came for Storm Ciara but stayed for the Corona virus. For people talking about modelling, its actually very easy to do. Open up an excel sheet. Start on say row 10, and manually set B9 =1, C9 = 1, D9 = 0, F9 = date of start of outbreak Column A: R0 number = ? (4 works well for current European outbreaks, reducing rapidly once serious control measures kick in for places like Italy, S Korea and China) Column B: Total infected = C10+B9 Column C : Total infected per incubation period = A9*C9*(1-D9) Column D : Proportion of population infected = B10 / 65,000,000 (for UK) Column E: Incubation period = ? (again, 4 works well for current European outbreaks) Column F: Date = F9 + E10 Now drag Row 10 down for a terrifying demonstration of the power of exponential growth, plus an interesting demonstration of how herd immunity can stabilise infection at below 100%.
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