Saint coolio

Italy’s curve is rolling over. The new cases and deaths look awful but they are well off the original exponential growth curve and should improve in 10-14 days, deaths lagging. We’ve taken arguably more effective steps, earlier. Still too late, I would agree, but not as late as the areas I mentioned before.

btw, it seems like southampton is the place to be. Not only are they trialling the drug mentioned above, they are also piloting usage of a 15-minute covid test made by a uk biopharma. Unfortunately they do not have enough nurses however.

Well, yes, but just not very precisely. which is my motto basicallly - “approximately right, not precisely wrong”

Guy’s a flake. He’s been calling this market crash since before the last one.

With reference to being ahead/behind of the curve, an absolute key indicator, morbid as it sounds, is the pattern of deaths vs cases. There have been numerous severe outbreaks clearly, but the ones that have or will get out of control are the ones characterised by a number of ‘early’ deaths (indicative of thousands of undiagnosed cases). Wuhan, N. Italy, NWR Westphalia, Washington State, Bay Area, and possibly Madrid all have that pattern.

I think so. The problem we have is more basic though - our health service is critically underresourced

Still queuing in an orderly fashion though

No, Italy was caught with pants down with many thousands of cases before they even started. Spain’s reaction was also poor.

Weather conditions have very little impact in the epidemic phase but could be much more important later

You can’t be serious? They don’t really know how to treat it yet. Six months from now we may be in a position where it is a manageable condition.

Well my kids aren't going in tomorrow or Friday now. Whats the point?

I wonder who the first mainstream politician in the west will be who calls China out for their outright lies about this pathogen? Trump? EVent Horizon @evdefender Y'all been Xi'ed. This may be the most cruel fake dataset of all time as world leaders who sat by praising China while doing nothing to prepare for #coronavirus watch it grow exponentially in their respective countries.

Absolutely. At least.

Sadly, it can take a long time to die. Possibly we are seeing a long tail of people who have held on 3-4-5 weeks. What you have to realise is that there were by best estimates 10s of thousands of cases already in Italy before they realised there was even a significant cluster. An outbreak starting with a number of deaths - like in Italy - is about the worst case scenario. Then they made a catastrophic error announcing lock-down in N.Italy only with a day lag whereby tens of thousands of people moved around Italy.

Just the lock-down now