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GSP

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    Isle of Canvey, Thames Estuary

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  1. 97 mph gust now recorded at Capel Curig on xcweather.
  2. 92 mph gust reported at Capel Curig according to xcweather.
  3. Don’t know what to say really. Between now and next week at the very least on every run we will be focussing on little movements of just 50 miles in some cases which will make or break someone’s enjoyment. Or will there be another twist in the tail?
  4. Must be a number of forecasts being rewritten, then rewritten again! How on earth can you keep up with all this! Sense says don’t tune in until Sunday now when things ‘may’ be clearer, but we won’t!
  5. There should be plenty of caveats around with these models and forecasts. Events still 5 days away where just one little feature moving 50 miles can have a big say on an outcome.
  6. Quite true. What’s left of the ‘plunge’ from the north on Sunday/Monday is still 5 days away yet, and as you say it’s not beyond the realms that low to the south may play ball to our advantage in some way. I would not call it experience, but just viewing charts for 25 years plus says however our dominant wind direction normally has the biggest say in the end. That’s why I prefer, certainly for here a wind from the east without any southern low intervention. Yesterday surprisingly delivered a little more than I expected.
  7. And remember like us it’s also with weather models. “All it takes is one voice, singing in the darkness…..”.
  8. What has been startling is the loss of oomph from the cold from the north. It did seem nailed on there would be an artic sweep well through the country, now at best we are relying on developments to the south to dictate what happens.
  9. Or, as in a number of previous times in these circumstances, more and more models come into line, and meet in the middle with any models that disagree at that time.
  10. Still, there could be some good skating on flooded fields.
  11. All fizzling out on this run, and no surprise whatsoever it’s setting itself back towards default mild. With such changes in the charts and still so far out, still hopeful another evolution is being sought so quite what we will be looking at as the day progresses tomorrow?
  12. Agree, it still hasn’t quite worked it out yet. Feel, as usual we are going to need a bit of luck with this still though.
  13. The latter stages of GFS are coming out which will probably show a westerly restored. Encouraged by this chart on the 12z. Well defined low to the south of us and that spoiler high from the west is holding off on this one.
  14. Never say this country doesn’t have any deflector shields!
  15. Waiting for a weather VR package to be created. We could have charts then experience the weather with no breakdowns, hiccups, spoilers. We get what we ordered!
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