Shillitocettwo
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Posts posted by Shillitocettwo
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Has there ever been a successive descendency of temperatures Feb, Mar then April? Actually think this year might manage it!
And has this ever happened?
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I'm thinking this April will undercut February with a chilly 7.4.C (well near 1960-1990 average but first below it in many months.) Expect a 'stuttery stally Spring' with a number of frosts, snow and a feel more like Winter than any of the actual Winter months just gone. Drier thankfully at 40mm.
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New seasons are...
Summer - May 21st until October 10th.
Summer temperatures will doggedly persist until early October when they will fall off a cliff.
Autumn Monsoon Season - Oct 11th to Oct 31st - expect relentless rain, wind and Gales Fuelled by sea surface temperatures well above average and some actual cooler air to the North
November pseudosummer - Nov 1st to Nov 18th - temperatures in the upper teens will make it feel like almost Summer minus any actual strength in the Sun
Autumn - Nov 19th to March 11th - there's no way you can call it Winter, the leaves ars still green well into December and the temps are too mild to call Winter
Winter - Mar 12th to Mar 19th - Some Sudden Stratospheric Warming event on steroids will push some Siberian Beast from the East style air over us which will find a weather front and dump a good few inches of unseasonably late snow
Disappointing Spring - Mar 19th to May 20th - despite global warming some kink in the jet stream will deliver clear sunny skies but rubbish temperatures and a run of late frosts before snapping out of it and catapulting straight into a 30.C heatwave by the middle of May -
March seems to identify as Winter these days and February Spring!
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I now think it's almost inevitable March will go cooler than February.
I think Winter will find the party belatedly with snow and relative coolth early doors, in fact the CET will be spectacularly down on Feb until late in the month where temps will hit low 20s for Good Friday swinging the month to 7.1 C , above average but around a degree down on a record breaking Feb.
Quite wet but not as wet as Feb, EWP 66mm
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March 2024 - Very mild start, brief cooler incursion then record breaking heat (30.C on Mar 29th) and record breaking CET of 11.4.C.
April 2024 - Extremely dry and another record breaking month temperature wise with a few days north of 30.C.
Another Lettucing of 12.4.C
May 2024 - Outrageous and frankly worrying heat in places, 38.C the peak and the CET ripped apart with an 18.1.C Very dry!
A record breaking Spring preluding a shockingly average June and cool wet July....
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Jesus my Lettucing is virtually on track with 8.97.C on the tracker (vs my 9.0.C)
I suspect there would be slight downward revision to the Met O.
With cooler (er not cold) conditions next week unless my heatwave rolls in I can't see the prediction coming off however I think there is a very strong possibility of this being the warmest Feb CET on record, it doesn't even need to hit 8.0.C. it comes to something when a polar maritime incursion in Winter is barely capable of knocking the daytime maximum below 10.C!
Lettucing - A month which lands a significantly above previous record CET eg December 2015.
In honour of Lettucing Gutted
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Well.....the CET is nearly 0.5.C above even my Lettucing.
I do like snow and cold weather, honest, although a shame for my prediction! Still, if the cold spell isn't too long (I'm not sure I'd even call it a cold spell in the southern parts of the UK and CET zone, more colder) and we get a good 2019ing end of month I still feel this month will 'achieve' a record high month CET temp value
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Im going for a December 2015 of Februaries Lettucing on this one with an astonishing 9.0.C
Little in the way of cold, a run of southwesterlies at first giving very mild low even mid teens days but then a 2019 style setup towards the end of the month pumping Saharan heat in on a High Pressure wiping the floor with various records and giving a new High of 23.C in the UK. Dry'ish' at 49mm.
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Im late for once!
A sandwich month, broadly speaking a mild and wet start, dry with cold temperatures mid month but I sense, with a nice interesting band of transient snow, a very mild last third.
I want to go lower but in this era of possible runaway climate change 5.0.C is the lowest Im offering with a wet 132mm.
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Jan 24 - Abhorrently mild at first wirh mid teen temps that segues to a stormy start to the year and the punchbag for the Atlantic but a few transient snow events with an injection or two of Northerly air. CET 5.6.C
Feb 24 - Extremely wet, worse than Feb 2020. Also mild to very mild at CET 7.3.C
Mar 24 - Settling down and similar in pattern to 2020 with settled and rather warm end. CET 8.3.C
Apr 24 - The first full month of a to be historic early long West European heatwave, very dry and a record 12.1.C CET
May 24 - Warmer still with temps regularly exceeding 30.C and an off the charts CET of 19.3.C!
June 2024 - The peak of the precocious heatwave Spring/Summer with maximum solar insolation pushing temperatures of exceeding 40.C in UK (peaking at 43.C) and even worse on the Continent with a 50.C in Europe and 46.C in Germany! Bone dry and a staggering CET of 23.1.C
July 2024 - After the first few days a month long tussle between further feeds of heat from a baking continent and the Atlantic. Not as extreme but only a slither off the monthly record at 19.6.C CET
August 2024 - Summer spectacularly down the pan now with a miserable run of depressions off the Atlantic and a washout. CET 15.9.C managing the first below average one for ages.
September 2024 - Benign, at times autumnal at times Indian Summer and warmer than August at 16.2.C
October 2024- The heat which never left the Continent returns on regular Spanish plumes giving an outrageous 16.3.C creating a mad warming up record Aug, Sep, Oct run and destroying the previous record.
November 2024 - Smashing records early doors with 26.1.C recorded on 3rd, however a cold spell late month with snow dragging it out of record month territory at 9.5.C
December 2024 - After such a shocking year highlighting climate change, December will be a month of High pressure dominance, frosts, fog and a very average 4.5.C
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3.9.C and 51mm.
December will help avoid a clean sweep of above average CETs for 2023.
A month that will behave surprisingly 2010 like for its majority, disruptive snow and some double digit minus nights even quite far South, at one point around the 18th the CET will be hovering around the freezing mark for the month, however a rather sickeningly mild spell will take over with a snap to 2015 behaviour with impressive transient snow as it does so. After delivering 20.3 C on the 23rd, with the CET rapidly shooting up, a very nondescript Twixmas of mildish dreary fog will set in to close out the year.
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Here's my current thinking...
December 2023 - Not quite 2015 territory but still 2nd warmest with near incessant low pressure systems and storms barrelling in from the Atlantic and south-westerly fetches, which will deliver the first ever 20.C plus day in UK at a staggering 20.1.C. CET 8.6.C and EWP 126mm.
January 2024- This one will break records too, overall a CET of 8.0.C and a very similar Atlantic dominated pattern. A bit less soggy than December at 75mm.
February 2023- Finally something that behaves a bit more like Winter with the incessant Atlantic lows giving way to ridging and even a decent cold week mid month. Some snow as this breaks down with a CET an above average yet feels cold of 5.1.C
If you want proper cold you'll have to wait until March where a nasty SSW event brings a proper chill down from Siberia and the lowest CET of the year at 3.8.C
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I think November will be a bit of a shocker after such a protracted run of above average months. The first portion will be about average for what November's should do, 10-12.C by day single figures by night but a protracted run of cold from the NE second half with some air frosts and precipitation, where it does fall will be wet snow, which may even give a covering in places to wake up to. As such (I might regret this) but 5.9.C and 44mm
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On 20/09/2023 at 17:11, Don said:
17C September, 14C October and a 11C November?! Now that would blow the current warmest autumn on record to kingdom come!!
We live in interesting and at the same time, concerning times. With anthropogenic climate change going into.a higher gear this year (take a look at the mean global temperature anomalies and the southern hemisphere ice extent anomalies, they're downright disgusting, ) I fear many long held records will be obliterated soon
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1 hour ago, Roger J Smith said:
No Hadley CET updates showing yet, would estimate that yesterday's mean was around 12 C and the running CET is therefore around 17.8.
The EWP was last spotted at around 73 mm and GFS gives another 15-20 on average (quite dry in southeast, wet in parts of Wales and nw England, but grid average is not much over 15 mm). Our scoring estimate table seems safe enough at this point.
The output for CET rest of the way appears to settle at about 16.7 or 16.8, so GFS says no record for you. Odds are probably a bit less than 1 in 3 chance now, it's not carved in stone either way. In any case, for CET scoring it only affects a few outcomes as to where this lands, anyone below 16.2 is probably going to score the same no matter what the value actually is, the flow is such that I think we can rule out a finish below 16.5 now.
In a way I don't think this September actually deserves the CET record warmth title, an exceptionally third should not be sufficient to carry a very average two thirds!
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I feel this will break records. 13.9.C and 87mm.
Nothing record breakingly warm by day, just an absence of cold minima and enough 20.C or thereabout days to secure a record
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1 hour ago, Derecho said:
An update on the CET projections based on the 12z GFS, which sends the CET cascading, mainly due to cool nights. However this is a work in progress and it may be off:
8th: 20.1 (22.9)
9th: 20.4 (22.4)
10th: 20.5 (21.5)
11th: 20.3 (18.0)
12th: 19.7 (13.9)
13th: 19.2 (13.2)
14th: 18.8 (13.7)
15th: 18.5 (13.8)
16th: 18.1 (11.8)
17th: 17.7 (12.3)
18th: 17.4 (11.9)
19th: 17.0 (10.2)
20th: 16.7 (10.9)
21st: 16.4 (10.9)
22nd: 16.2 (11.1)
23rd: 16.0 (11.6)
However the prediction I made 5 days ago held up fairly well:
3rd: 18.0 (18.8)
4th: 18.5 (19.9)
5th: 18.7 (19.4)
6th: 19.3 (22.9)
7th: 19.9 (23.6)
8th: 20.2 (22.3)
9th: 20.3 (20.9)
10th: 20.5 (22.1)
11th: 20.5 (20.3)
12th: 20.0 (15.2)
13th: 19.6 (14.0)
14th: 19.1 (12.8)
15th: 18.8 (14.6)
Still the warmest first half to September on record but I wouldn't bet on the warmest September on record overall. Tropical storms may throw up surprises and the EC does look much warmer however.Yes a very warm start but a very warm first 3rd won't carry a record monthly value with average temps for the other 20 days!
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Given July and August have both been poor weather wise (despite global warming ensuring temperature wise they have been averageish) this often means a good September. While I don't see this one breaking any records, it will still be quite summer like in places with a few decent mid 20s days however a very autumnal end will see it just miss 16.0.C so 15.9.C and 59mm please
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On 31/07/2023 at 13:33, Roger J Smith said:
You don't give a number for EWP but I'm sensing about 120? Anyway perhaps add one?
117mm and I accept the late penalty for this bit lol
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Current thinking for rest of year....
September...15.1.C actually warmer than August! Sunny and quite dry but with some cool nights late into month preventing excessive values.
October 12.4.C Mild and weather on the better side if average.
November 11.7.C Mildest on record, days we'll into mud teens even by close if month with a conspicuous lack of frost.
December 12.4.C. An absolutely staggering new record to make 2015s effort look like an Ice Age. Unusual warmth lingering in the Med and North Africa will push over us for large sections of the month with some truly astonishing new records, London recording 23.4.C on the 6th and many days in the high teens making the month feel like Summer without the intense sunlight with some very mild nights. 20.3.C a new Christmas Day record in the South.
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I think August will be horrific. CET 15.0.C even cooler than 2014. It will start unsettled and cool and apart from one half decent weekend with a ridge of high pressure the run of Lows will be relentless with some cool days and a few quite shockingly cold nights, even a widespread ground frost around Bank Holiday.
The heat will remain in the Med
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I would describe the pressure chart synoptic as the 'jammed launderette' at the moment, NW Europe has a rather persistent 'Washing Machine Low' throwing its 'cycles' of rain at us and SE Europe has the persistent high pressure dome 'tumble dryer' ie. the intense heat
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Is there a year in rhe CET series with June being the warmest month? Bar a 1 day heatwave this July so far feels like October is squatting in it weather wise.
Also the big l SST anomaly seems to have evaporated back to a broad everywhere is 1.C above average status
April 2024 C.E.T. and EWP contests
in Spring Weather Discussion
Posted
What bothers me currently is that the CET is in the 11.something zone in the first half and its not like its even trying particularly for a record....you would expect something spectacularly anticyclonic driven by SE winds for this....when in fact we have had fairly banal weather patterns with the odd Southerly...if it actually tried there is now the potential for absolute destruction of CET monthly and daily records
The only way my original temp prediction is coming off now is Yellowstone to erupt imminently....even then its not a certainty!