MikeC53

I was referring to after that time period the Low to the West edges back in from T180 onwards.

The 'beautiful' charts are what we have had in April and May. Far from certain IMO that we will become much warmer, and for some areas there will be huge rainfall totals.

It will if the GFS has the position correct - it will just be constant rain being fed from the trough.

My area has seen dreadful summer flooding several times in the last 13 years and we are looking at that again if the GFS comes off. People are going on about storms but you won't have them if the low pressure centre is that close to us.

Day 9 on the GFS and heavy rain almost everywhere.

Really dreadful output tonight especially for my area and further South/SW.

Day 7 and its still raining in the far SW.

Cornwall and Devon especially are looking at serious flooding on this run.

Yes two days of continuous heavy rain for here at least.

Things have taken a turn for the worse for Southern areas - heavy rain now moving back North at day 5.

Yes both GFS and UKMO have the low further North by day 5 than there earlier runs - wet for as far North as the South Midlands.

Day 7 is wet for Wales and Southern England, day 10 the jet is rolling in off the Atlantic at exactly the wrong latitude for us as pressure remains high to the North.

Looks pretty dreadful to me.

At least the initial trough sinks through quicker on all the runs this morning, but as you say still the potential for big rainfall totals for the South.

With respect to those posters, I've read some of their stuff in winter that predicts change to colder conditions - and those changes have never come.