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MikeC53

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Everything posted by MikeC53

  1. MikeC53
    I was referring to after that time period the Low to the West edges back in from T180 onwards.
  2. MikeC53
    The 'beautiful' charts are what we have had in April and May. Far from certain IMO that we will become much warmer, and for some areas there will be huge rainfall totals.
  3. MikeC53
    It will if the GFS has the position correct - it will just be constant rain being fed from the trough.
  4. MikeC53
    My area has seen dreadful summer flooding several times in the last 13 years and we are looking at that again if the GFS comes off. People are going on about storms but you won't have them if the low pressure centre is that close to us.
  5. MikeC53
    Day 9 on the GFS and heavy rain almost everywhere.
  6. MikeC53
    Really dreadful output tonight especially for my area and further South/SW.
  7. MikeC53
    Day 7 and its still raining in the far SW.
  8. MikeC53
    Cornwall and Devon especially are looking at serious flooding on this run.
  9. MikeC53
    Yes two days of continuous heavy rain for here at least.
  10. MikeC53
    Things have taken a turn for the worse for Southern areas - heavy rain now moving back North at day 5.
  11. MikeC53
    Yes both GFS and UKMO have the low further North by day 5 than there earlier runs - wet for as far North as the South Midlands.
  12. MikeC53
    Day 7 is wet for Wales and Southern England, day 10 the jet is rolling in off the Atlantic at exactly the wrong latitude for us as pressure remains high to the North.
  13. MikeC53
    Looks pretty dreadful to me.
  14. MikeC53
    At least the initial trough sinks through quicker on all the runs this morning, but as you say still the potential for big rainfall totals for the South.
  15. MikeC53
    With respect to those posters, I've read some of their stuff in winter that predicts change to colder conditions - and those changes have never come.
  16. MikeC53
    Why is the GEM any more believable ? It's not the best model by any stretch. Matt Hugo is a respected meteorologist and his thoughts reflect at the very least that once we are in this pattern it's very difficult to get out of.
  17. MikeC53
    Yes just seen it, I'm sure warnings will be issued when the areas likely to be impacted most are firmed up - but I'm certain the Midlands will be bang in line as we were in 2012.
  18. MikeC53
    I'm afriad that is pure 'FI' we have to look at the reality facing us this week.
  19. MikeC53
    If they were for todaythen that was never going to happen from a northerly set-up. This is quite different and brings back memories of this time last year - nearly 3 days of continuous rain and max temps of 12C.
  20. MikeC53
    Yes we are going to see the weather making the news in low lying areas I fear - the last thing people need right now.
  21. MikeC53
    Yes some horrendous totals - not surprising as we will have slow moving fronts for around 5 consecutive days.
  22. MikeC53
    But if your stuck under the rain band then projected temps of that sort end up being 16/17.
  23. MikeC53
    The only plus point is that it's once again synoptically different from the previous runs, offering a little hope that a better solution could occur but the key point for me is that at T144 we have the models agreeing on significant blocking across N Scandinavia and that's never going to mean settled weather here.
  24. MikeC53
    As usual, once poor charts have appeared as the lilkely solution, things go from bad to worse very quickly. A lot of rain on the GFS as this coming week as the trough hangs around. The UKMO gives a respite at T144 but the next system is heading straight for the UK off the Atlantic. And there is no 'warmth' to be seen.
  25. MikeC53
    Yes, troughs have nowhere to go with big blocking to the NE, very wet in the West particularly.
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