DavidS
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Worldwide Mountain & Snow Sports Discussion 2023/24
DavidS replied to Blessed Weather's topic in Spring Weather Discussion
It looks like the end of this week and the weekend could bring some much needed more widespread snow to the Alps and the Pyrenees, with temperatures continuing to decrease to something more appropriate for the time of year. We are back from our week in Sölden, and while Thursday and Friday last week were a tad warm, we did enjoy some excellent skiing. Luckily most of the skiing is above 2000m and we even had about 15cm of fresh powder overnight on Monday last week, so the conditions on Tuesday were really good. Although the valley runs were best avoided. This was my first to Sölden and I really enjoyed it. I would definitely come again and also recommend to anyone, however if I do go back I would like to go at a quieter time of year. -
Worldwide Mountain & Snow Sports Discussion 2023/24
DavidS replied to Blessed Weather's topic in Spring Weather Discussion
Arrived in Soelden on Sunday and there had been fresh snow above 1500m, with about 15cm above 2000m. This made for really good skiing today. It is currently snowing now at resort level (approx 1300m), So hopefully we will wake up to a fresh covering tomorrow. This is my first time to the area and I must say the Oetz valley is spectacular. -
Model Output Discussion - Spring Has Sprung
DavidS replied to Community Team's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
carinthian yes for the Alps, the hope of a couple days ago would be lower pressure would push east or south east from the UK and at least bring down the 850s next week, but that scenario seems to have gone from the models. -
Model Output Discussion - Spring Has Sprung
DavidS replied to Community Team's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
12z ICON is not quite as good as the 00z but at least some consistency. -
Model Output Discussion - Spring Has Sprung
DavidS replied to Community Team's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
I’m quite liking the ICON at 180 this morning. It maintains a wedge of heights to the NNW and we go colder. Looks a bit on its own at that time frame though -
Having the low track as far north as shown on the ECM 12z op is within the envelope of possibilities, but probably not the likeliest solution. I would imagine something quite a bit south would be more likely, in fact i would be less surprised if the eventual outcome was it went too far south. But that of course is to be determined and many more options will be shown by the ops in the next few days.
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The ECM isn’t an outlier within its ensembles and tracks the mean out to around the 12th/13th Jan, however at that point it does start to drag its heels. Plenty of scatter on the ensembles from day 8 with a good cluster, including the control keeping things cold. Much still to be resolved.
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Model Output Discussion - Into Winter
DavidS replied to MATTWOLVES 3's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
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Model Output Discussion - Into Winter
DavidS replied to MATTWOLVES 3's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
I do love a GFS snow depth chart. The 00z also maintains the cold until the end of run. Would be an interesting start to the year. -
Correct, the colder temps at 10hPa are currently displaced from the typical home.
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Model Output Discussion - Into Winter
DavidS replied to MATTWOLVES 3's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Sobering viewing from the 00z suites, as often seems to be the case. It’s not the first time, and probably not the last that I find myself looking at the eastern seaboard of North America, to see if a pesky low can stay detached long enough to allow pressure to orientate favourably for us in the UK. Oh well, no doubt the outlook will change again later. -
Good to see. There are some -12s on that chart, which is toasty. Hopefully we see some consistency in the output and it starts to come into the reliable. End of December is a good time to have a warming.
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Worldwide Mountain & Snow Sports Discussion 2023/24
DavidS replied to Blessed Weather's topic in Spring Weather Discussion
Corbets Couloir - Jackson Hole -
Model Output Discussion - Into Winter
DavidS replied to MATTWOLVES 3's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Icon 12z keeping things generally unsettled in the next week. Is it though looking to build an Atlantic ridge from T+168 or would it likely flatten? -
Worldwide Mountain & Snow Sports Discussion 2023/24
DavidS replied to Blessed Weather's topic in Spring Weather Discussion
Normally Obrertauern, but this year we have a change is scenery and are going to Solden. -
Worldwide Mountain & Snow Sports Discussion 2023/24
DavidS replied to Blessed Weather's topic in Spring Weather Discussion
Beautiful tracks Carinthian. Hope the stellar conditions hold until February. -
Model Output Discussion - Into Winter
DavidS replied to MATTWOLVES 3's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Why do the 00z suites seemingly have this desire to dissolve the cold? -
Latest ECMWF anomaly charts at 10hPa, show a strong warm anomaly for Weeks 2 & 3. Week 1 (first image) is for week commencing 27th Nov.
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Model Output Discussion - mid Autumn
DavidS replied to Kirkcaldy Weather's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
GEM, GFS and ICON all going for height rises to the NE at day 7. GEM, GFS and ICON all going for height rises to the NE at day 7. -
Winter 2023/24 - Discussions & Forecasts
DavidS replied to Blessed Weather's topic in Spring Weather Discussion
Noted -
Winter 2023/24 - Discussions & Forecasts
DavidS replied to Blessed Weather's topic in Spring Weather Discussion
Looks pretty good to me, with lower heights to the east / south-east for Jan/Feb. -
Model Output Discussion - mid Autumn
DavidS replied to Kirkcaldy Weather's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Just be clear, I am in no way condoning the appearance of a ‘Bartlett High’. -
Model Output Discussion - mid Autumn
DavidS replied to Kirkcaldy Weather's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
This is brilliant. Being a relative newcomer to the weather models (c. 5 years), I had often seen the term ‘Bartlett High’ used. I understood what it was describing quite quickly, but only more recently gleaned a vague understanding of why the term was used. However reading this, it is fascinating to realise the term came about due to discussions not dissimilar to those I follow everyday here. Thanks for posting