Erdem
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Posts posted by Erdem
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1 hour ago, DavidS said:
My first post as a newbie, but I feel I’ve learned enough that I can say the clusters are not favourable for wintry conditions for UK.
Yes I'm afraid for cold fans , the Outlook is as poor as possible
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16 minutes ago, snowray said:
To get two very mild and winters on the trot though is not a normal, chances are that something cold will turn up eventually, although it might not be until the tail end of February though like in 2008. Personally I'm still hoping for a change to cold in the last week of January.
Well the stats suggest it has been normal for UK , late eighties , late nineties and several consecutive similar types in New millenium
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26 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:
Evening.
Dire outputs continue. Nothing in the way of amplification to note.
Thats me signing off for winter. CIAO
It's a real shame , sorry that the forecast you made has not worked out
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3 minutes ago, Allseasons-si said:
The ecm turns out to be a horror show after 144 hrs but i wouldn't take anything as gospel past that time-frame anyway
the models are rubbing salt into the already open and cut wounds and we are going to need a big bandage to stop this dross
i am hoping the models are overplaying the strength of the pv out to our NW and underplaying the ridge to our East in future runs
what we want to see is more of an amplifying trough out west to force the ridge further north,the gem did this towards the end of the run
so keep your Prozac's in the cupboard and your toys and dummies in place for now,and lets see what happens.
Yes , a very mild run taking us to middle of Jan , very well set Euro High
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9 minutes ago, MP-R said:
Haha you really need to get it out of your head that the weather was refurbished in time for the new millennium.
The coldest January’s and January weather I’ve experienced have been post 2000.
If you really want to find the closest thing to a switch flick, compare the 90s with the 80s!
My parents cannot believe I can be in England in winter and not need to have heating on or coat when I go out
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One of the guys on TWO is saying he has never seen such mild ensembles in 20 years , it's a remarkable persistence of pattern , and it seems it happens more and more often .
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Thanks snowray , I only looked at the temp numbers and it's clear , that for W Europe and even more so for UK and Ireland , there has been dramatic change since late eighties
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34 minutes ago, Mattwolves said:
I just can't believe the ones who are praising themselves for predicting this mild winter!! You must have one fantastic tardis or crystal ball.... Or perhaps I partyed to hard on New Year and have slept through the final 2 months of winter! It's not exactly rocket Science to predict a default weather pattern. For those of you coldies still interested... Keep the faith... Plenty of time for a backloaded cold spell just yet, or even a very cold early spring!
Ok , of course +NAO is normal but surely 'default' is not near record breaking , which January could be.
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47 minutes ago, Snowy L said:
Back in Cyprus, a Mediterranean island (i.e. just about the worst place outside the tropics for snow) I would be an hours drive away from more snow I could ever wish for. Here I would have to drive 5 hours to Scotland just to see some small snow patches on the mountain summit. Absolute disgrace.
Plenty of snow around in Turkey too , it's such a shame for the UK how things have changed
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47 minutes ago, Man With Beard said:
Well let's stick the clusters in too.
To me, D10 looks a bit of a tipping point
Progress by D15:
What we're seeing in the chance of the Atlantic getting stuck to our west. Quite a good chance.
If that is achieved then what would follow is either:
- a succession of long drawn mild southerlies if the ridge extends well south into Europe - or -
- a slow intrusion of colder and colder air initially from the south-east
However the line between these two scenarios in winter is extremely tight, once the Atlantic is shut out by an Eastern block.
So I think coldies have a least got a shot from the set-up as we get into the second half of January. Still probably asking a lot for a strong easterly though, best chance of snow * if any * will be battleground type snow.
I think battleground snow would be unlikely because we have such a warm continent - south easterlies would not be cold enough ?
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Just now, Erdem said:
Yes , I would think 16 or 17 is possible for SE. I'm now trying to understand this large teapot theory
? Teapot
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10 minutes ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:
no wonder SS 14 degrees forecast for Tues
Yes , I would think 16 or 17 is possible for SE. I'm now trying to understand this large teapot theory
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18 hours ago, Nick L said:
Certainly in the realms of the worst ever winters for sure. At least 06/07 had a belting snow event in February though. Thankfully it's impossible to beat 13/14 in terms of snowlessness though! Can't get less than zero
Looking at some of the temperatures for last 30 years then , for snow fans , many of these winter's must have been in the realms of the worst
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10 minutes ago, General Cluster said:
Crikey! With uppers of circa 12C, one or two all-time records must be under threat...?
And, unlike on December 28, peak Foehn effect should coincide with peak insolation...
Yes , incredible and the models suggest another very mild period for the mid month so the Jan temp record could come under threat .
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Having done bit more research the figures really do show amazing changes since late eighties.
If UK has mild December then mild Jan and Feb have nearly always followed which is amazing over 30 year plus period timeframe
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9 minutes ago, DiagonalRedLine said:
Must admit, would be feeling more happy and confident if some of the anomaly charts, such as the NOAA ones, were to show a good signal for a European Trough to the South or East of the UK. Something that seems to be lacking at the moment. That would help I feel and easily encourage any Scandinavian High that may develop to the East of the UK to get propped up (off course, though, the positioning of the Lows and troughs to the South/South-East of us in Mainland Europe would be important as well as having Atlantic Lows to the West of the ridging going far enough South).
However, even should nothing cold or snowy occur within the next sixteen days (perhaps away from Scottish mountains), doesn’t really mean no cold and snow can’t turn up at some point for the rest of Winter.
I think we are very unlikely to see troughing to the SE, one problem is no Russian High this winter and just Low height all to the North . The set up just supports itself
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Very mild charts again this morning and I would think the possibility to break some records for UK
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Just now, Jason M said:
Just looked through the various model runs and to be honest they look awful. Its highly unlikely that we will get heights in the right place as the northern arm of the jet will simply not allow it with such a well organized PV. Love to be proved wrong but the very best I can see is a mid Lat high. That will allow for some good time lapse snow videos from Greece but that's about it!
Yes , ECM starting to look good for SE Europe
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I think any feed that we would get from the SE would be warmer than normal because of what has Happened so far.
We would need to see the colder air getting under a higher latitude block and nothing suggests that at this time
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56 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:
Charts of the winter so far > Who cares its miles away > Brings back so many snow memories
Last winter I think those charts were at day 8 or so - and they still didn't happen . In SE Europe once the colder snowier weather is at that range you can be sure it's coming
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39 minutes ago, Frost HoIIow said:
Probably because we've had a lot of Winters with high pressure nudging into southern/central Europe from the Atlantic & on the eastern flank of that high where Greece & Turkey are it drags in cold air from the north.
Without a doubt from the synoptic , but why is this happening , the lack of high pressure further North
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1 hour ago, Steve Murr said:
Interesting times >> All the non cold spells over the last few weeks the GFS / ECM have been over amplified & the UKMO has been flat > eventually being the winner - all be it with some volatility..
Now we have the UKMO highly amplified with the GFS beginning to move to it - The 06 GEFS mean is a big swing to amplification at 156.
Ignoring all the misery & winter is over posts > thats the best news to date.
Its a pity no UKMO 168 today but im sure there will be a GEFS ENS that looks similar come 144
S
Im not sure I would call the UKMO highly amplified , the concensus as I see the charts is Euro High and very strong PV
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This is interesting , because for SE Europe there has been generally no increase in winter temperature and more incident of snowfall and extreme cold periods in last 20 years - much of Turkey has recorded lowest minima - though I'm not sure of when records go back - in the 2000s/2010s
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1 hour ago, igloo said:
very rare to see upper temps of +8c in northern Scandinavia at the beginning of jan.one upside it can't get any worse surly
Incredible but becoming more frequent and once again the colder air is for Turkey and Greece
Winter 2019/20 | Moans, Ramps & Chat
in Spring Weather Discussion
Posted
The records over last 30 years or so show mild December and Jan is usually then followed by a mild Feb , relentless persistence of pattern