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Erdem

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Everything posted by Erdem

  1. The records over last 30 years or so show mild December and Jan is usually then followed by a mild Feb , relentless persistence of pattern
  2. Yes I'm afraid for cold fans , the Outlook is as poor as possible
  3. Well the stats suggest it has been normal for UK , late eighties , late nineties and several consecutive similar types in New millenium
  4. It's a real shame , sorry that the forecast you made has not worked out
  5. Yes , a very mild run taking us to middle of Jan , very well set Euro High
  6. My parents cannot believe I can be in England in winter and not need to have heating on or coat when I go out
  7. One of the guys on TWO is saying he has never seen such mild ensembles in 20 years , it's a remarkable persistence of pattern , and it seems it happens more and more often .
  8. Thanks snowray , I only looked at the temp numbers and it's clear , that for W Europe and even more so for UK and Ireland , there has been dramatic change since late eighties
  9. Ok , of course +NAO is normal but surely 'default' is not near record breaking , which January could be.
  10. Plenty of snow around in Turkey too , it's such a shame for the UK how things have changed
  11. I think battleground snow would be unlikely because we have such a warm continent - south easterlies would not be cold enough ?
  12. Yes , I would think 16 or 17 is possible for SE. I'm now trying to understand this large teapot theory
  13. Looking at some of the temperatures for last 30 years then , for snow fans , many of these winter's must have been in the realms of the worst
  14. Yes , incredible and the models suggest another very mild period for the mid month so the Jan temp record could come under threat .
  15. Having done bit more research the figures really do show amazing changes since late eighties. If UK has mild December then mild Jan and Feb have nearly always followed which is amazing over 30 year plus period timeframe
  16. I think we are very unlikely to see troughing to the SE, one problem is no Russian High this winter and just Low height all to the North . The set up just supports itself
  17. Very mild charts again this morning and I would think the possibility to break some records for UK
  18. I think any feed that we would get from the SE would be warmer than normal because of what has Happened so far. We would need to see the colder air getting under a higher latitude block and nothing suggests that at this time
  19. Last winter I think those charts were at day 8 or so - and they still didn't happen . In SE Europe once the colder snowier weather is at that range you can be sure it's coming
  20. Without a doubt from the synoptic , but why is this happening , the lack of high pressure further North
  21. Im not sure I would call the UKMO highly amplified , the concensus as I see the charts is Euro High and very strong PV
  22. This is interesting , because for SE Europe there has been generally no increase in winter temperature and more incident of snowfall and extreme cold periods in last 20 years - much of Turkey has recorded lowest minima - though I'm not sure of when records go back - in the 2000s/2010s
  23. Incredible but becoming more frequent and once again the colder air is for Turkey and Greece
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