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Erdem

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Everything posted by Erdem

  1. Erdem
    The records over last 30 years or so show mild December and Jan is usually then followed by a mild Feb , relentless persistence of pattern
  2. Erdem
    Yes I'm afraid for cold fans , the Outlook is as poor as possible
  3. Erdem
    Well the stats suggest it has been normal for UK , late eighties , late nineties and several consecutive similar types in New millenium
  4. Erdem
    It's a real shame , sorry that the forecast you made has not worked out
  5. Erdem
    Yes , a very mild run taking us to middle of Jan , very well set Euro High
  6. Erdem
    My parents cannot believe I can be in England in winter and not need to have heating on or coat when I go out
  7. Erdem
    One of the guys on TWO is saying he has never seen such mild ensembles in 20 years , it's a remarkable persistence of pattern , and it seems it happens more and more often .
  8. Erdem
    Thanks snowray , I only looked at the temp numbers and it's clear , that for W Europe and even more so for UK and Ireland , there has been dramatic change since late eighties
  9. Erdem
    Ok , of course +NAO is normal but surely 'default' is not near record breaking , which January could be.
  10. Erdem
    Plenty of snow around in Turkey too , it's such a shame for the UK how things have changed
  11. Erdem
    I think battleground snow would be unlikely because we have such a warm continent - south easterlies would not be cold enough ?
  12. Erdem
    ? Teapot
  13. Erdem
    Yes , I would think 16 or 17 is possible for SE. I'm now trying to understand this large teapot theory
  14. Erdem
    Looking at some of the temperatures for last 30 years then , for snow fans , many of these winter's must have been in the realms of the worst
  15. Erdem
    Yes , incredible and the models suggest another very mild period for the mid month so the Jan temp record could come under threat .
  16. Erdem
    Having done bit more research the figures really do show amazing changes since late eighties. If UK has mild December then mild Jan and Feb have nearly always followed which is amazing over 30 year plus period timeframe
  17. Erdem
    I think we are very unlikely to see troughing to the SE, one problem is no Russian High this winter and just Low height all to the North . The set up just supports itself
  18. Erdem
    Very mild charts again this morning and I would think the possibility to break some records for UK
  19. Erdem
    Yes , ECM starting to look good for SE Europe
  20. Erdem
    I think any feed that we would get from the SE would be warmer than normal because of what has Happened so far. We would need to see the colder air getting under a higher latitude block and nothing suggests that at this time
  21. Erdem
    Last winter I think those charts were at day 8 or so - and they still didn't happen . In SE Europe once the colder snowier weather is at that range you can be sure it's coming
  22. Erdem
    Without a doubt from the synoptic , but why is this happening , the lack of high pressure further North
  23. Erdem
    Im not sure I would call the UKMO highly amplified , the concensus as I see the charts is Euro High and very strong PV
  24. Erdem
    This is interesting , because for SE Europe there has been generally no increase in winter temperature and more incident of snowfall and extreme cold periods in last 20 years - much of Turkey has recorded lowest minima - though I'm not sure of when records go back - in the 2000s/2010s
  25. Erdem
    Incredible but becoming more frequent and once again the colder air is for Turkey and Greece
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