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SqueakheartLW

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  1. Don't know how we can be getting to a more blocked pattern unless it is forced from the troposphere somehow as that polar vortex shows no signs of slowing down neither. The CFS members on weather is cool have the vortex lasting right into May At this rate could we see our first ever recorded zonal westerlies at 10hpa in June?
  2. Done some research on the link between solar activity and the winter CET's recorded since the beginning of solar cycle 1 that started with the winter of 1754/1755. I have split the results into different stages within solar cycles as well as if it is an odd or even cycle or a transition between odd to even or even to odd at minimum as well. The following is what I got ordered from mildest solar cycle stage to coldest stage for winters in the UK Solar Max Odd December January February Overall Winter Averages 3.98C 3.10C 5.52C 4.20C Anomaly -0.26 Colder -0.29 Colder +1.56 Milder +0.34 MILDER Solar Max Even December January February Overall Winter Averages 3.84C 4.52C 3.91C 4.09C Anomaly -0.40 Colder +1.13 Milder -0.05 Colder +0.23 MILDER Solar Min Even to Odd December January February Overall Winter Averages 5.05C 3.13C 4.06C 4.08C Anomaly +0.81 Milder -0.26 Colder +0.10 Milder +0.22 MILDER Ascending Even Cycle Min to Max December January February Overall Winter Average 4.08C 3.09C 4.78C 3.98C Anomaly -0.16 Colder -0.30 Colder +0.82 Milder +0.12 MILDER Descending Even Cycle Max to Min December January February Overall Winter Averages 4.43C 3.41C 3.79C 3.88C Anomaly +0.19 Milder +0.02 Milder -0.17 Colder +0.02 MILDER Descending Odd Cycle Max to Min December January February Overall Winter Average 4.42C 3.57C 3.52C 3.84C Anomaly +0.18 Milder +0.18 Milder -0.44 Colder -0.02 COLDER Ascending Odd Cycle Min to Max December January February Overall Winter Average 4.01C 3.28C 3.89C 3.73C Anomaly -0.23 Colder -0.11 Colder -0.07 Colder -0.13 COLDER Solar Min Odd to Even December January February Overall Winter Averages 3.29C 2.86C 3.49C 3.21C Anomaly -0.95 Colder -0.53 Colder -0.47 Colder -0.65 COLDER Overall Averages Dec1754 to Dec2018 Jan1755 to Jan2019 Feb1755 to Feb2019 Overall Winters Dec1754 to Feb2019 4.24C 3.39C 3.96C 3.86C Overall it seems odd solar cycles are colder overall or transitioning out of an odd cycle to an even one whilst the even cycles are overall milder Solar maximum is mildest overall as expected with odd maximums ahead of the even maximums. The odd solar max figure is overall +0.34C MILDER for winters The even solar max figure is overall +0.23C MILDER for winters Odd solar maximums favour a front loaded winter whilst the even solar maximums favour a mild January Next comes to my surprise Solar minimum when transitioning from an even solar cycle to an odd numbered one. Winter 2019/2020 is probably one of these winters The even to odd solar cycle transition is overall +0.22C MILDER for winters This is in fact almost the same as having a solar maximum winter anomaly January is most favoured for cold based on the averages but there are some exceptions in the data, January 2020 is clearly going to be another exception December is most favoured to be the mildest month in the even to odd solar minimum stage Next comes Ascending Even Cycle from minimum to maximum This favours an overall +0.12C MILDER than average winters A front loaded winter is most likely followed by quite a mild February overall 2010/2011 is a classic example of the above pattern. This is followed by the final milder option with Descending Even cycle maximum to minimum This favours an overall +0.02C MILDER than average winter and could be said to be basically average A back loaded winter is favoured overall with slightly milder December's and January's February is most likely to be colder than average Next comes the Descending Odd cycle maximum to minimum This favours an overall -0.02C COLDER than average winter and is more or less average again As with the descending even cycle winters these ones also favour a back loaded winter The anomalies are slightly colder and overall these winters are marginally colder than the descending even cycle ones February yet again comes away with a cold anomaly but more severe than the descending even cycle February's The next option is Ascending Odd cycles minimum to maximum This favours an overall -0.13C COLDER than average winter so slightly below normal on average Unlike ascending even cycles that favour milder conditions it seems ascending odd cycles favour colder winters All winter months come out colder than average overall with December better placed to be the coldest of the three THIS LOOKS PROMISING FOR THE NEXT 2 - 4 WINTERS FROM 2020 TO 2022-2024 AFTER THIS MILD FEST OF A 2019/2020 WINTER The final option is Solar minimum when transitioning from an odd solar cycle to an even solar cycle This favours an overall -0.65C COLDER than average winter. 2008/2009 was one of these winters and it was indeed colder than average All of the winter months come out colder than average overall, especially the December's We'll have to wait and see but around 2030 we could get quite a severe winter, especially if solar cycle 25 ends up another weak one
  3. Squall line just reaching Jersey now. It is also now giving some people in Belgium a taste of what we have had today Lots of heavy showers packing in behind by the looks of it
  4. Look at those shower streamers over Scotland right now. One through the central belt and another curved one to the north of it. Looks like the centre of the storm is over NE Scotland at the moment with that small hook of rain there
  5. There's another line behind this one in the north. Don't know if that will form another squall line or not
  6. The GFS 12z is bad in terms of zonality for any hopes of sustained cold but the best we get are a few cold zonality shots at times during the run There appears to be nothing that can disrupt the polar vortex it would seem and this run shows just that from the moment the latest warming finally subsides at around +180 hours 10hpa 30hpa And again no disruption to the vortex at any point after this right out to 384 hours. Just a nice tightly rounded ball on both charts 10hpa 30hpa If this chart is also to be believed then the zonal winds are going almost off the scale again in the anomalies really throughout the time period but especially later on. This other chart from weather is cool is just a sight of horror if you want anything cold. Seems like zonal winds could be setting some new records again later this month based on the mean of the GFS members and some of the CFS runs too. All of this just translates to the expected pattern with zonal from start to finish and the two following charts are snapshots of the surface pattern at the same +180 hours and +384 hours timeslots +180hrs +384hrs As can be seen, nothing but zonal but the best chance of anything wintry is within the colder sectors between systems and this will most likely be higher ground or in the far north.
  7. This looks initially like a monster low on the GFS 6z run at +342hrs That central pressure is below 920mb However the predicted wind gusts with it are actually lower than what they are saying with storm Ciara on Sunday Storm Ciara gusts Gusts with this predicted low that probably won't verify like this
  8. Considering February 1779 got a CET of 7.9 and how we have a warmer world than back in the 1700's then I just get the feeling that we are due our first February CET of 8.0 or more. We got our first 20C+ day last February.
  9. Winter 1868-1869 compared with 2019-2020 so far Current mildest winter on record December 1868 - CET 7.2 December 2019 - CET 5.8 -1.4 lower January 1869 - CET 5.6 January 2020 - CET 6.5 +0.9 higher February 1869 - CET 7.5 February 2020 needs to record a CET of 8.0 to equal the mildest winter on record of 1868-1869 If we get CET of 8.1 or more then we have a new record mildest winter. Based on how our winter has been so far and the output showing for the next 2 weeks at least combined with a possible record breaking positive AO and continuation of positive NAO then don't rule out a February CET of 8.0 or more. That in itself would beat 1779's all time February CET record of 7.9.
  10. This is +384 hours on the 6z GFS 10hpa chart Just imagine what this would do for us on the surface if it verified exactly as shown We'd have two monster ridges. One will be the Siberian High, the other a monster Greenland/Canada ridge. A big trough would sit over Scandinavia and this would link back to the Atlantic lows which would be on a southerly track. This would place the jet stream through the med and leave us in a very cold Arctic northerly or even NE winds and a negative NAO to boot. Eastern USA could also go cold here from the same monster ridge over Greenland/Canada.
  11. This looks more like it Saw the chart on weather is cool for the zonal winds based on 0Z GFS run Some of the members are going for a reversal of the zonal winds but the overall trend is very promising These charts show how much the zonal wind is collapsing in the extended range. It is even showing a slight reversal here too on the wind speed chart and it is good to see those blue colours on the anomaly chart. The very end of the 0z GFS run is also good to look at. At 10hpa it appears a split of the polar vortex is taking place here. Lets just hope that one of the pieces of the vortex doesn't end up coming to rest over Canada or Greenland. Over Europe would be much better and would encourage colder temperatures to move to the UK and Europe. At 30hpa the initial warming has already propagated down but the second warming isn't showing just yet. However the vortex split is beginning to show itself at this level too with the main colder part of the vortex over Europe. Will this create a December 2010 repeat if it got down to the troposphere. Finally at 500hpa there is still no sign of what is happening above but then it is probably too early to see any response in the troposphere at this stage but it looks like the changes above are descending quite rapidly. Lets see what these charts are showing in a few days time
  12. Could be in for the UK's warmest year on the CET record since we are getting off to such a warm start already. We almost got the 25C Isotherm at 850hpa last summer. Maybe this year we could get close to the 30C Isotherm reaching us
  13. The 6z GFS continues the trend of the big drop in the zonal winds Also your first image and the zonal wind chart are from different runs. This chart is the one that goes with the first image
  14. This winter is definitely worse. in 1997/98 we had northerlies in early December that brought some northern and east coast regions some snow showers. We then had the beast from the east in mid December with that frontal snow event that I remember so well. Also around 19th or 20th January there was another northerly that gave further snow showers so compare 1997/98 to 2019/20 we had at least 3 snow events before this date whilst this winter I have seen ... NONE so 2019/20 definitely a lot worse
  15. Here's a look at Tuesday night into Wednesday next week from 12z GFS Look at all that snow for central, southern and some eastern areas. The stratosphere also looks interesting at +384 hours too at 10hpa The warm region over Canada is the remains of the first warming but a new one is appearing over eastern Europe. If it merges with the other one we could be waving bye bye to the polar vortex very quickly.
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