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  1. Starting to look more like we will have a moderate event which looking at the latest NINO region anomalies looks east based at present but it wouldn't take much to make it a mixed La Nina. Unless something strange happens I think we can now rule out a central Pacific La Nina. Moderate east based La Nina could mean game on for a colder than average winter and with how little the Atlantic seems to have dominated even during the autumn with some unusual patterns showing up in the models suggests we could be onto a "different" kind of winter this year, only as long as the stratospheric
  2. Makes me wonder why so many want an EQBO for winter if the WQBO is better at creating a negative AO during phases 6 and 7 compared with an EQBO
  3. I have posted the general version of this post in the ENSO thread but I wanted to post a more specific to this winter version here. I have crunched all of the data on the websites containing all of the NINO region anomalies on the websites at the top of my latest thread on the ENSO thread, refer to this if you want to see the links In this thread however I shall specifically concentrate on what is more relevant for this winter, La Nina First I will post the La Nina years as well as the La Nina stats I have shown on the other thread La Nina Years La Nina Stats
  4. After crunching all the numbers from all that data I got from the following websites I have used this and CET data to come up with the following analysis as predictors for winters with certain ENSO anomalies and types https://psl.noaa.gov/gcos_wgsp/Timeseries/ https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/data/indices/sstoi.indices First as a reference to make sense of all the CET anomalies that appear to not match up I have used the following CET 30 year means to get my anomalies for all years between 1870 and 2020 As a rule I have chosen the middle decade in each 30 year period and
  5. Anyone hoping for a cold December may wish to be more patient. The CFS monthly charts on weather outlook are favouring a back loaded winter with quite a strong signal for this. Take today's set of charts as an example December 2020 January 2021 December and January charts have this sort of flavour a lot with low pressure either over us or to our N or NW bringing Atlantic domination and no doubt average temperature when averaging out the alternating Pm and Tm airmasses between systems December looks slightly cooler than January here on the above charts with more
  6. My sixth CFS Christmas update here for you all to read today containing the next 10 days worth of analysis from the CFS 9 monthly runs from meteociel My first to fifth updates came in with the following figures Update 1 26/09/2020 to 05/10/2020 Data Temps 0z 6z 12z 18z TOTALS Precip 0z 6z 12z 18z TOTALS V Mild 0 V Dry 0 Mild
  7. CFS wants to copy my opposite scenario to last year idea I posted the other day My scenario Latest CFS runs Notice both are crashing the vortex into near nothingness by January and all non bias corrected runs are getting to a reversal at some stage in January Just hope it comes off as "Polar Vortex of Doom Part 2" isn't my idea of another winter down the drain
  8. Right near that green patch across E England on the first chart. Shame the snow level numbers aren't at 0 as that will be a no show event otherwise
  9. Looks like new EQBO is on the move downwards Latest Day 10
  10. Well that is a good start if you want it to be a cold one
  11. Here's a nice little run for those who hate the Atlantic dominating during December to February in particular, the latest 12z CFS Dec 1 High pressure to start December pulls northwards temporarily and allows an easterly for a short time which brings some colder weather in Dec 4 By December 4th it looks like the Atlantic is trying to break back through but it has little success Dec 7 High pressure has reformed over the UK and the Atlantic is cut off once more Dec 8 It looks here as if the high is trying to retrogress towards the mi
  12. About as dire as it can get for a winter CFS run. Really from the start of December this particular run just fires up the Atlantic and we get nothing but alternating airmasses between long fetch SW winds and some brief colder W or NW setups behind each low pressure area The worst part is here when storms begin to get in on the act too Look at that huge area of pink, purple and black, about as strong as the vortex gets on these charts and notice that little low pressure in the bottom left and let me show you what monster it turns into the next day Look at that beast,
  13. What about a mirror image of last years vortex status Well that was the best I could do with free hand drawing in paint but imagine "Anti Polar Vortex of DELIGHT" rather than the "Polar Vortex of DOOM"
  14. When looking at different layers of the polar atmosphere we can see varied stories in 10 days time 10hpa just looks terrible if you are hoping for any sustained cold weather in December A totally compacted and cold vortex with very little sign of anything to disrupt this, even that small warm area isn't up to very much at all 1hpa is showing those rapid zonal winds but the temperature profile doesn't seem to match up with what is forecast The cold temperatures appear to be scattered about in around 3 or 4 more pieces despite that strong vortex showing. Is someth
  15. The CFS 9 monthly runs for the 12z run have consistently churned out the coldest on average runs and I thought I'd share another good run for you, maybe not quite as exciting as the previous one I showed you but non the less another cold one on average Dec 1st We begin the month under an area of high pressure and quite a chilly high at that with fog and frost by night and clear sunny but quite cold days. A typical inversion cold setup with those milder uppers and cold air on the surface but look what is lurking to our east Dec 2nd On the 2nd we have an attempt t
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