Joneseye

I'm down the road from you in Newbury and have a sneaky suspicion of back edge snow overnight. Not long to wait and find out. Also liking the look of those convective charts posted by Knocker and the high res model predictions of shower activity tomorrow.

Woah horsey! Just checked the 10 day forecast that defaults for London .. 113mm in 3 hours

Staying at my parents in Weymouth. Off out for dinner in a bit then ready for (hopefully) a decent show out over Portland later on x

I wonder if the French are tracking our storms and anticipating the affect of the English Channel!

No - I looked at the radar this morning from East Anglia northwards and was very surprised. I'd be very interested for some of the experienced members to pick the bones out of the last few weeks. I'm trying to bank my analysis of these last few weeks for when easterlies of this potency arrive again*. For me the scenario remains the same, get the cold air in place and watch with fascination at what unfolds afterwards, Very hard for any model to accurately predict what will happen.

I'm sure I speak for many on here in saying THANKYOU! the time and effort you put into your posts. How you illustrate your thinking and breaking things down into laymans terms is greatly appreciated.

As always I've been mainly lurking and analysing the last 6-7 weeks of our 'extended winter'. Heck my eldest said to me today 'Daddy why is it snowing in spring, it's not meant to snow in spring daddy' - yeah this year is different, darling... Anyway if any of you lovely people read this. The point is as always micro level details of precip amounts in these situations are guidelines. There is some superb knowledge, experience and interpretation from the more knowledgeable posters on this forum. I looked at the radar at 2255 and thought.. you know what its over for my location so close the the M4 (Bingo). In the back of my mind I kept seeing the images and reading the words of some of the excellent analysis about what might develop to the east. I peek back an hour later and there it is Sussex way developing.

Could see double digit below freezing tonight where there is snowcover and if the winds remain light. -4.8 here with -6.4 dew point

Fingers crossed to wake up to a dusting by morning.

Wonder if it ties in with the deepening colder air. The -14 850hpa is approaching..

Ditch the mobile phone app in favour of the trusty lamppost and radar

As per usual we are into nowcasting territory for the 'Slider'. They don't come along very often so very difficult to accurately model. It's excrutiating micromanaging every small shift in trajectory. I remain positive, but not enough to spark any excitement from my children yet! 'Daddy - what does snow look like?'

Let's hope the band of precip over the Irish Sea/SW Approaches can do something similar once it makes landfall

Pretty jealous of that storm over in Belgium right now

The lightning activity has really died down now across NW Europe compared to a couple of hours ago. The Strike rate was up around 140 per minute and now its around 40. Plenty of time for things to get going throughout the rest of the day. The reality so far today illustrates how difficult it is to accurately model thunderstorms in this country.

2+ inches of rain in an hour! Blimey O'Reilly! I feel an early start is in the offering for tomorrow morning!

see above ^^^

Latest 10 day forecast showing 38mm rain for Newbury in a 3 hour period on Thursday. Never seen a forecast of that much in 3 hours since the start of the Internet age. Somewhere in the 'sweet spot' will get a deluge on Thursday. Doubt it will be Newbury, but you never know.

Looks like some cells developing over the Cherbourg Peninsula now too. Hopefully some treats in store for the baked, sleep deprived south east folk.

Trying to check against the scale is tricky - but I'd say 1 down from the top. Maybe someone else has better colour vision than me

An the core has 100mm plus rainfall rate indicating hail!

Couple of cheeky cells popped up over the channel. I wonder if these will explode when they hit land? Justin123 beat me to it!

Agreed - Heathrow was already at 25C at 0800 and widely the temperatures are 23C and above at 0800. I reckon somewhere in our region will break the 90F mark.

I think the Will it rain function is broken. It shows the same totals when changing to different locations e.g. Capel-Curig

What a mucky start to the working week. Tomorrow looking warm and muggy, could turn very warm if the clouds break. Wednesday still looking very wet indeed with 20-40mm rain forecast depending on the model.