NewEra21

The chase is over for this winter imo, time is ticking and every push back is edging closer to March now. Not to say we won’t get a cold spring of course! But this winter has been a huge let down, like so many of late. One year, one year things will fall right again. But in this modern warming world, it’s one hell of a chase to get there unfortunately for the UK.

The ECM is just laughable this morning, we finally get the right Synoptics and an easterly flow. Yet there’s literally no cold whatsoever to tap into! Typical of our luck!

This winter is just slipping away unfortunately, another chance gone begging. No doubt we’ll finally hit the jackpot once March arrives!

GFS has often latched onto things first this winter with the other models slowly coming back round to the GFS. So say what you want about the GFS, but it’s got things overall more correct than not this winter imo.

Those Iberian heights just won’t drop for long enough this winter to allow any real chance of prolonged cold. Pretty sure once Spring arrives, those heights will be nowhere to be seen. As always!

Well if the GFS does end up being correct, it’s beginning to look like the ship has sailed for this winter. Barring something special right at the end of Feb. GFS really is worst case scenario stuff!

Looking at the models this morning I really can’t see much of interest, the GFS op is the only real promising run and that itself is very much on the colder side against the mean. Hopefully somewhere see’s a dumping late next week, outside of that I don’t see anything of note. Looking at mid month onwards now.

I feel like that SSW earlier this month no matter how short it was, absolutely ruined the prospects for the remainder of winter. It wasn’t strong enough to blow the NH open, but enough to end our cold chances. Usually we’re relying on a SSW, but this year it hit at exactly the wrong time. Things were looking promising for January, then that shook things up a little and this is the result of where we find ourselves now. I’ve no doubt come late Feb/Early March we’ll see what we wish we could see now. But it takes something truly special at that time of year. Aka 2018

It’s the same old story every winter, don’t worry it’s only December. January and February look promising, just for January to go down the pan as always and then February goes out with a whimper with a slight cold chase at the beginning of March. I understand some got lucky over the past week, but for the south it’s been terrible in terms of snow all winter.

We really need a true easterly BFTE down here. Troughs embedded in the flow etc etc. These northerly set ups and lows approaching from the SW rarely cut it nowadays. Cold enough and we can’t get any precip in, get the precip in and it will turn the wrong side of marginal. Very rare to hit the jackpot with sliding lows nowadays.

Next week looks nothing more than a bog standard cold spell now, a few frosty days with some snow in Scotland. Don’t get me wrong, we’ll all take those cold, dry frosty days after this soggy winter. But this is not what we thought we were all chasing, such a watered down cold spell to what could have been.

Hopefully that low can push up far enough north to give those further south something midweek next week. Otherwise it’s looking very meh in terms of snow potential for the region. Northerlies never really cut it this far south, unless we can get a trough unexpectedly coming down in the flow. This week just gone looked far more exciting with the Easterly flow at the beginning of the week.

This has been such a long chase and it’s definitely going to turn much, much colder next week. Hopefully we all see some unexpected surprises pop up when it comes to snow. But what was potentially on the table that we thought we were chasing a week or two ago, you can’t help but be a little deflated with how next week may actually play out.

A GFS op run in the middle of the pack would be nice for a change. Always seems to be outlier territory in the mid range!

Let’s just get the northerly down on Sunday/Monday and then see what happens. The whole of next week looks cold and I’m sure there will be a surprise or two. Once the cold is in, more often than not surprises pop up. I wouldn’t even look at the following weekend just yet!

ECM looks very good this morning, not so keen on the GFS. With those 850s and flow on the ECM, there would be features popping up all over the place. No worries about that run being dry closer to the time.

Troughs lining up like buses in the flow, on a direct route for the UK. Beautiful!

Well, well, well. A low going south and missing the UK and heading into France. Game on

The trouble is, closer to the time something else will pop up or go wrong. The longer everything takes, I just see the eventual outcome being watered down.

Just a few days ago it seemed almost effortless in bringing the cold in, just shows how difficult it is for a UK cold spell. Something always pops up that scuppers or makes everything edge of the seat as to will it or won’t it. The Meto seem pretty bullish about the cold arriving early next week in their forecasts. So let’s hope they’ve got this!

Hopefully the GFS is very wrong, but I do feel it’s latched onto things before ECM this winter, always feel like ECM is a step or two behind and always playing catchup.

The runs for next week really have become a mess, seems like we’re relying on a lot of luck now. We definitely need things to start looking better within the next couple of runs, especially as the important developments are now coming into the more reliable timeframe.

I do tend to agree, and a northerly never really delivers anything much for the SE anyway. The initial promise of a East/NErly flow looked very promising for next weekend onwards. Unfortunately that has become more of a northerly, which looks more of a struggle with each run. A few flakes and a freezing cold day tomorrow would be a nice at least!

Hope those further SE do well tomorrow, so much talk of cold in a weeks time. But the uppers for tomorrow are very impressive and right on our doorstep, some places could get very lucky. Fingers crossed. Should be a fun day in here tomorrow, nothing beats an easterly flow and tracking those snow showers and streamers!

The ECM has been going the wrong way for the past 24 hours or so. It manages to squeeze cold into our shores, but it looks more by luck than anything. If things go the way ECM shows, I’d never be confident that any real noteworthy cold reaches us. The next 24-48 hours looks more interesting for the south in particular.