WxHerts

A massive kick in the face if ecm comes off, because yet AGAIN we miss the main crux of the cold and it ends up a marginal mess for the majority. I would suggest it's one of the more sensible options however given it's a very similar synoptic to a type that we have seen twice this winter thus far and nothing major has changed to suddenly warrant us heading into the freezer in the next 10/14 days..no I do not believe we are not seeing the effects of the SSW yet - that will come later in some way shape or form. Ecm delivers really well for those who happen to live in the mountains, but for the many not the few it is, yet again, really rather rubbish! And I cannot be the only one who is getting incredibly bored with having to pray that evaporative cooling is on our side, let's be real the majority of us want to go into the freezer 09/10 style and this ain't it. Some were recently touting a 'historic January', uhh where, what so drastically changed?!

Snowing and settling here N London approx 0.001cm but we will take it!!

Just hit -2c here at 5pm!! Praying for some ppn early hours, MO app just given 4pm update now for a few hours of light snow here early morning..but obviously nothing from main high res models.

Light snow floating down here

I'm fast becoming desperate but a few models showing something setting up and tracking through Herts/N London area both Tues AM and even more so into Tues night (only Arpege runs out that far currently but shows a decent swathe lasting almost 12 hours excluding AM ppn!)...I'm not overly worried wrt marginality issues as I have elevation on my side and am far enough inland - so just praying for some moderate intensity ppn which sticks about for a few hours!

I'm not entirely sure where it's coming from but the map on MO's site actually shows more interest on Friday morning as opposed to Thurs...many hours of light snow through the small hours, with temperatures widely sub zero! I've heard that they use some extended form of UKV for this but again I'm not entirely sure.

Yikes from Arome, somehow it manages to perfectly skim the coast lol

John Hammond just on lbc he’s clearly backing the more northern track for tomorrow (also touted a bfte late Jan but that’s another matter lol)..but seems the trend is overall going south as you would expect.

Based on current radar evolution I actually think there's a small chance that the ppn currently centred around Hants could pivot a separate band into the London area, the system also looks to overall be gaining in intensity.

Whisper it slight shift east and uptick in intensity on very latest ICON

Shame I don't seem to be able to access archive ICON high-res charts on meteociel, but that's a huge dumping and so am just curious as to how good it is with the modelling of snow events specifically (I'm talking magnitude rather than placement obviously).

End of GFS 6z OP really reminded me of this from NYE 1978 lol.. more info on that here: https://www.netweather.tv/forum/topic/72097-snowstorm-of-dec-30th31st-1978/

Anyone know when GEM got its warm 850hpa temp bias fixed?

Ah only now are people beginning to wake up to the very real possibility of a setup that is just too far west for us to reel in the goods...ECM is majority cold rain, GFS is majority sleet.

I think what's most important is what's going on to our west and really they look quite similar in that regard!