Beanz

WYorksWeather we’re 3 weeks into Spring, it’s nearly April - when you say better/worse, upgrade/downgrade, that doesn’t really explain much to anybody reading your post and charts.

Some of us hang out here for weather, not just snow…

Certainly been an interesting winter, the twists and turns of the models have been great fun this season, keeping us all on our toes.

WYorksWeather looking like the perfect start to a spring season - what’s not to like about those ensembles!

Nick F I always enjoy your measured posts Nick, they’ve been the ones to look forward to throughout this winter season. I think you’re right to call out the MJO. Now that winter is drawing to an end, I think I can happily say it’s been a fun few months of model watching, and we’ve had the widest variety of weather I think I’ve ever known.

It’s been fairly windy here and more than I expected. I would say it probably just about warrants the amber warning in this area, and I’d expect some trees to be down for certain. The village is currently without power so something somewhere has blown over.

Well, even the frost has been disappointing this week - barely a frost on the windscreen this morning

Forgive my flippant question, but how do you know if AIG has modelled a low pressure system well, if it hasn't happened yet...?

There will definitely be some weather next week..

Not really, considering that’s the U.K. default. Most here would also say a 10 day cold spell isn’t long too…

Please keep going, if you stop then I’ve only got 4 people left posting on this thread as the others have all been blocked!

As you clearly have identified, a vast number of folk hang on every model run and put emotion before scientific analytics. So you're less of a novice than you might perhaps think! You do have to sort the wheat from the chaff on this forum, particularly at this time of year otherwise it ends up reading like a thread from mumsnet.com. We already know the background signals are very well placed, the building blocks if you like. The latest GFS run is just another solution and one which isn't supported by UKM or EC but certainly isn't a set in stone solution for the next week, and neither should it be binned as you rightly point out. The road to an embedded cold period is long, very long in fact, and I'm fairly sure we will see a good period of cold weather over the next 6 weeks unlike we've seen for a good few years. It may not align quite as we expect, and maybe not perfectly or from the current evolution of the model output. Patience is key, but thats a commodity in short supply on this thread at the moment, and it shows sometimes

I think we all know what’s meant by an Azores Low - makes enough sense to me

I’m seeing day time air temps, in the south of the country down to below -10. You have a strange idea of ‘mild’

Beginners mistake, that’s a weather app not model output

I’d go one step further, it’s not an opinion it is absolutely correct

Your posts are quite vague, can I suggest if you make claims related to certain charts or to the MetO statements, that post links to support your commentary - otherwise it just means nothing to those reading it

How does it compare to the same graph from 3 days ago though?

It’s a noticeable and unfortunate trend now. That said, it’s not unsurprising, the EC has sniffed something out over the last few runs - which it quite often does in these scenarios.

It’s 10 days away, you won’t get cross model agreement at that range.

I would agree, I would take this op run for what it is. Definitely the test of a seasoned cold weather chaser, separating the men from the boys - let’s have some stronger nerves!

Thank you John, a very measured and sensible piece of commentary nestled amongst the noise this morning

A cold spell is almost certain, I don’t think it’s foolish to expect that to happen now given where the models are at and that’s where the excitement is focussed. Snow isn’t a measure of a cold spell, and I can’t see anybody nailing their flag on that happening, it’s watching brief with low expectations I would suggest…at this stage.

And the mean is certainly the one to keep an eye on as we know. It’s been remarkably consistent

306hrs - pointless