As you clearly have identified, a vast number of folk hang on every model run and put emotion before scientific analytics. So you're less of a novice than you might perhaps think! You do have to sort the wheat from the chaff on this forum, particularly at this time of year otherwise it ends up reading like a thread from mumsnet.com.
We already know the background signals are very well placed, the building blocks if you like. The latest GFS run is just another solution and one which isn't supported by UKM or EC but certainly isn't a set in stone solution for the next week, and neither should it be binned as you rightly point out.
The road to an embedded cold period is long, very long in fact, and I'm fairly sure we will see a good period of cold weather over the next 6 weeks unlike we've seen for a good few years. It may not align quite as we expect, and maybe not perfectly or from the current evolution of the model output. Patience is key, but thats a commodity in short supply on this thread at the moment, and it shows sometimes