ChannelThunder
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Posts posted by ChannelThunder
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Alderc 2.0 Nothing surprises me at the moment. All I recall seeing for weeks now is model runs that do everything they can to end up with a northerly!
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Metwatch while the data there is disappointing, it's at least good to know we're not all mad/delusional/overdramatic in commenting on a decline.
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Alderc 2.0 Believe it or not, I recorded 17.2C this afternoon, which is now the warmest it's got so far this year on my station. Pretty pathetic for two thirds of the way through April.
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There's been little to get excited about in the models this week, but suddenly on its last couple of runs, the Euro is swinging a low down from the NW and parking it in Biscay, close enough to throw up unstable conditions from the southwest next weekend. These sorts of scenarios seem more likely to deliver in Spring or early autumn, so one to watch. Still a little bit in FI but hopefully it's still showing in a few days.
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Seems like it's going to be one of those years where it takes an age to warm up. All I can see beyond the weakening of the HP next week is more crud from a NW'ly direction. Big meh to that!
The end of April marks the beginning of 'plume season' so I'm begging to see high pressure set up just to the east in the models from around about now. Just seriously hoping it's not as bad as 2020, 21 & 23 on the plume front!
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Briefly recorded 12.8mm/hr during the squall line that just went through down here. Highest I've seen my station show so far
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Today's persistent bank of nondescript cloud suddenly cleared entirely... 30 minutes before sunset of course
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stainesbloke the FE eclipse stuff is even worse! Really does make you despair for humanity.
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raz.org.rain Facebook is getting worse and worse for it. They sit in their echo chamber groups on there in their thousands. I was having a nose at the group 'Chemtrails UK' and they're even talking about mobilising, taking action and all of that. Apparently when they write to their MPs, they get sent a link to a 'BBC propaganda article about chemtrail conspiracies'
. Some on there are literally blaming their health conditions on the 'spray'.
As anyone here who follows the MO on FB will know, they swarm the comments sections for every single item posted.
The problem is; it's hard to argue with them when you watch what happens to these trails on many days, and the cloud-fest that has been the last 6 months has given them so much bait to hook onto, clearly being used to recruit further to their cause. But, ultimately, as @In Absence of True Seasons mentions, it's the number of planes in the sky, which gets higher every year and clearly isn't helping. Friday was a particularly bad day for it down here. The atmospheric conditions were seemingly ripe for high cloud development, given the way the trails were getting a bit out of hand up there, spreading out into wide banks of Cirrus that filled the sky. On days like that, you can almost hear the conspiracy lot around you, pointing at the sky and going 'see! They're spraying the **** out of us. Look up, sheeple!'-
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Uh oh, on the latest ECM, the high pressure (that's still over a week away) is now being held to the west, leaving us in a yucky northerly flow. That won't go down well for many if it comes off!
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Happy first Kent Clipper of the year! And it's only 8th April.
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The difference that tiny stretch of water can make...
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Paul has a fair few out with him on AR/MO border. He's posted that Cirrus is becoming a concern. Best of luck to them!
Of course there's also an Enhanced SPC outlook in Texas on the same day as an eclipse!
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Shame about the wind today. Clear blue skies all morning here, but can't really sit in it without being cold and irritated by this gusty breeze.
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CoventryWeather Spotted this too this morning. Looks a bit Kent-Clipper'ey
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A mild one, but I recorded only my second-highest max since having my station from the start of the year. 16.1 today. 16.2 on 20th March
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Not a lot to report in the end, then!
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Now the radar's in range, you can quite clearly see the southward shift in the heaviest precip. that myself and @viking_smb alluded to an hour ago. Shame! Still, I'm not writing tonight off entirely, but definitely going to bed now! Radar check some point in the early hours no doubt when I awake probably needing a pee
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Touch-and-go whether it grazes Cornwall and southernmost tip of Devon, if it sustains itself that long
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Thunders I was thinking about setting an alarm for about 4am, but if you look on the satellite now, things are taking a turn southwards it would seem...
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While Blitz looks even better at the moment, UKV largely kills it off now during the night.
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As a caveat to the above, it's of course still hundreds of miles away! I shouldn't really try to predict its path over such a long distance, especially given it'll likely die off and/or be replaced by sister storms later on. Single thunderstorms like that rarely last beyond a couple of hours!
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viking_smb shows as a nice round lump on satellite.
Current trajectory swings it along channel coasts somewhere I'd say, from analysing the sat. loop & Blitz
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Eagle Eye thanks for the details. I hadn't even paid attention to the fact there is a storm risk tonight, just assumed it was your bog-standard showery Atlantic front!
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Storms and Convective discussion - April 2024
in Storms & Severe Weather
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Metwatch I've been keeping half an eye on this in recent model runs. Certainly an unusual synoptic set up playing out on the ECM. In theory there could be modified plume storms drifting in from the North Sea, which isn't something that happens very often at all!