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Lance M

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Everything posted by Lance M

  1. Plenty more convective opportunities showing on the models for Sat/Sun/Mon. I'd imagine many inland areas should get something nearby at least on some of those days!
  2. Personally I MUCH prefer our French imports down here to homegrown pulse storms, so I'm not too jealous - it's just actually getting the French imports that's been the problem over the last couple of years!
  3. Much more interesting model-watching now than the first two-thirds of Spring! I'm not even sure what to take away from the runs on offer at the moment as it's such a mixed-bag and always changing! A feeling of 'anything could happen' for the rest of the month.
  4. Well, I've made it to a soggy Dungeness/Lydd. Just gotta hope the stuff in the channel can spark back to life otherwise it's a wasted journey 😞
  5. Okay that radar has me convinced it's worth a drive to Kent. Quick dinner down, now time to leave!
  6. Into radar-watching territory. Lots of drizzle coming up from France 😂 ...and one little storm in there trying its best to get going.
  7. The last storms I thoroughly enjoyed/was able to photograph were in Oklahoma some 23 months ago now, so yeah, pretty damn starved to be honest after last year's letdowns! 6z Arome still looks promising for the ol' Kent clippers. It does tend to overdo things a little, but it's worth noting previous runs picked up this morning's activity through the Dover Strait, and the 6z itself even picks up on the showery activity moving through the Brighton area currently.
  8. Looking increasingly likely such scenes will be repeated tonight, in my opinion. Just trying to decide whether a distant light show over the channel/North Sea is worth a 2 hour drive later 🧐
  9. Great call on the morning action in Kent @staplehurst - the models seemed to be really unsure about whether anything would happen! Time to charge those camera batteries in case I end up in Kent later!
  10. Convective Weather CONVECTIVEWEATHER.CO.UK Forecasting thunderstorms and severe convective weather across the British Isles and Ireland for up to the next 5 days. Dan's thoughts for tomorrow. I'm verging more towards not driving down to Kent right now, but I hope things look more positive in the morning.
  11. Banking that UKV right now! I wouldn't necessarily have to even chase very far if that came off. Might have to charge up the camera batteries for the first time this season. Edit: thanks for the good luck wishes @Mr Frost. I'm moving back to the Isle of Wight in a few weeks as we've bought our first house, and after the pants year for storms last year, my soul needs one more storm chase on this side of the water! I will go down to southeast Kent on Sunday if that's what it takes! Talk about storm-starved!
  12. Most models have showed something clipping Kent for a few days now. The worry with a Kent Clipper is when the models already show it taking that path 48 hours out, it can only really be corrected eastwards nearer the time and then miss us altogether. I think on Sunday I'm going to have to make a call whether I chase to Kent or not! I'm moving back to the Isle of Wight in a few weeks so it'd likely be my last chance to jump in the car and chase on the 'mainland'.
  13. Another morning looking at absolute crud on the models and feeling concerned for @Alderc 's sanity!
  14. A nice bit of activity around today for sure! As for here, I managed to somehow be in the middle of every single shower/storm that passed from the west to the east today! It might seem unbelievable given the radar, but we managed to keep our washing outside drying rain-free all afternoon!
  15. Blimey, no wonder it's showing snowfall. What a joke! All on the 12z Euro now to show something a bit more positive, fingers crossed!
  16. It's worth cautiously mentioning that the Euro now wants to stall next weekend's low pressure system to the SW, and even develops night-time thunderstorms along a cold front on Saturday night. Not worth trying to pin down any details at this stage as they'll probably disappear on the next run! Overall, with both the GEM and the ECM now stalling the low, it gives potential for at least something thundery arriving from the South, let's hope it's a model trend that continues and that GFS gets interested soon too.
  17. Plenty of interest in that run for me personally, especially seeing the GEM follows suit and even goes as far as hitting us with some very heavy rain, originating from N. Africa/the Med! In both of those models, things get interesting with the LP to the West/SW churning up lots of heavy rain and yes, even some warmth! ECM also develops thunderstorms from Devon/Dorset up to Hull next Saturday night. Usually, the ECM is first to pick up these ideas, then Goofus follows suit a day or two later.
  18. I wonder what led to the area between Swindon and Oxford achieving its average rainfall? I don't recall any sustained rainfall being so localised during the month, unless it's purely from yesterday's frontal rainfall being much heavier/prolonged there? 🧐
  19. A few nice skyskapes around today, but not a drop of rain here, whereas other parts of Hampshire have had a fair bit! A mere taster for the rest of the season. Hints of a plume on the last couple of goofus runs, but it's 9 days away. If the 12z and 18z come up with it too, it might be worth entertaining!
  20. It'd be a step in the right direction, but the jet would need to be a good few hundred miles further west than that. As you'll see on the corresponding pressure charts for that date on the same model run, that would take any low pressure systems up out of France and to the east of the UK, so any unstable air would be far to the east (Germany etc) and we'd be on the 'cold side' of the jet in more stable conditions.
  21. That's indeed a fair bit of lightning for so early in the morning and so early in the season. Has to have been elevated, right? Cloud bases in general seem high over the last 12-24 hours, at least around these parts! Edit: Dan's outlook for today gives more detail on that storm: http://www.convectiveweather.co.uk/forecast.php?date=2021-04-28
  22. 😂 Oops. This is what happens when I go from having used my WFH keyboard all day to my gaming one on the other PC
  23. Out of nowhere, GFS is producing this for Monday/Monday night! The same LP possibly affecting England and Wales more so than Scotland/NI was mentioned by the Aiden on the week-ahead forecast from the Met Office today too.
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