NApplewhite

Can the Azores and Scandi highs link up over England and Wales . I doubt it

I expect the low over Greenland to reappear and low pressure/trough over the UK in the 18Z run tonight! GFS you are a pain! you bring me hope and its always dashed in overnight runs!

Good summery set up !

Wow the low pressure is now centred off the NW cost of Portugal! A long way from the UK and dragging in warm air at +180

I used to look at the GFS Operational as my prime source of information about the coming weather but i now realise that i could probably created a better and more accurate statistical meteorological model to forecast the weather up to 16 days in advance. I would advise members of this forum, who like me, love analysing and forecasting the weather to use a combination of all the models and focus more on the Mean pressure charts rather than the tosh that comes out of GFS Operational. As i said the other day, there are numerous examples of GFS over inflating temperatures and they seem unable to forecast the weather even 48 hours in advance. I think the ECMWF is more accurate along with UKMO. In the short term its a lovely afternoon in North Wales, the cloud is breaking up and its turning much warmer and more humid than the 14C GFS forecast!

I dont like this chart for this Wednesday!

Looks very unsettled for the next 16 days though! up to +384

It sets sail for America but then gets stuck off SW Ireland and merges with another low so not much of a westward movement. Hopefully this will reduce the rain totals in England and Wales due to this and allows in a warm and humid easterly flow.

In summary - dire GFS for Heat and sunshine lovers!

Heavy rain forecast in GFS across Eastern Ireland, whole of wales, Midlands, Yorkshire, NE England, parts of Scotland, Mid Southern England between now and Sunday 14th June 2020. Low pressure anchored to the SW of England as show below, higher pressure over Scandandvia and low pressure over Continental Europe. Warm and Humid over Central.Eastern England, London, Liverpool, Manchester, Chester/Wrexham cooler and fresher conditions eleswhere. Two areas of Low pressure will dominate the weather week commencing 15th June 2020 and turning much colder. No sign of any settled weather on the horizon. Washout and zero sunshine over the weekend of 19th - 21st June 2020.

Overcast in Wrexham but relatively mild around 10 degrees in Bradley, Wrexham at 06.37. 99.9% Cloud cover at the moment. Temperatures for this week: Monday 8th June 2020 - 14c Tuesday 9th June 2020 - 17c Wednesday 10th June 2020 - 13c - Heavy Rain Thursday 11th June 2020 - 13c Friday 12th June 2020 - 21c Saturday 13th June 2020 - 29c Sunday 14th June 2020 26c

The GFS 12Z is out up to plus 96 hours - consistently showing the low pressure centered over Britanny Channel Islands and Bay of Biscay. Strong high pressure over Iceland, Faroe Islands ! This will lead to cool unsettled conditions to the E/NE winds.

Unsettled with plenty of rain on Wednesday and Thursday. Friday and Saturday will be lovely across parts of Wales with long sunny periods.

High pressure is very weak and will not make it!

As i thought ICON has the trough dominating weather across the UK, Northern France and the Benelux! I am sure GFS will follow (which i lost faith in about 4 years ago after numerous occasions of predicting heatwaves at +120 then changing to rain and low pressure in the next couple of runs). Why does everyone always focus on GFS? This is not the weather i want in high summer but this is the UK and we can expect cold weather over the next 5 - 6 days before temperatures recover (though remaining very unsettled as the trough - which is difficult to shift, embeds itself for the next two weeks slap bank over the UK)

All indications from UKMO, GFS, ECMWF are of a brief ridge of high pressure moving in for about 36-48 hours and then retrogressing as the trough develops over England and Wales. Very unsettled and cool next week though there is hope of a rise in temperatures to the season average. Plenty of rain to look forward to after the dry spring.

Looking very settled for at least 10 days in early to mid September, as is often the case!

Meanwhile look how cold its going to be on Sunday in Rochdale (Ol12)

Were any local records broken last night? if not nationally?

Im more concerned about the low pressure over the UK on that date

ECMWF Highres predicting highs of 34-35

Latest GFS 2m Temps on 06Z - HIGH res shows peak of 36C in London at 15.00 nothing like the 40 degress forecast earlier. I dont think we will break the record tomorrow

No where near 100f today! currently 66f in Manchester. Cant see us getting a rise of 34F in the next 36 hours.

I can see us returning to the early = mid June 2019 type weather with an active jet stream and lots of rain and below average temperatures! i am worried about the outlook beyond Saturday! Very unsettled with torrential rain and possibility of flooding.

I agree - Saturday looks like being a washout across England and Wales with lots of cloud and rain around and only average temperatures