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Everything posted by NApplewhite
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Low Pressure returns and jet stream fires up at + 8 day range Uk left on cold side of the much more powerful jet that exits Canada and our old friend the Iceland low sweeps across the UK bringing temperatures down to just 13 in Northern England and North Wales. Summer ends next Tuesday 18th August. Week commencing 24th August looks distinctly cool and wet!
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ECMWF 00 model is out and it shows a cooling off from Sunday to Wednesday next week as a low pressure system established itself over the UK. Much lower temperatures by the 19th August as the Scandi high remains and the azores high ridges north allowing the jetstream to move leaving us on the much colder side. Wet outlook for this week. Longer range is distinctly average.
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Looks like a big temperature upgrade is coming Have a look at GFS 06Z (right) compared to GFS00Z (left) for next Thursday 13th August and the previous run . 2 degrees have been knocked off the highs for tomorrow (August 7th 2020) though across most places in England and Wales. I can see more changes by tonights 12Z.
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Model output discussion - into July 2020
NApplewhite replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
no upgrades at all. Look - this time last week they were predicting the whole of England and Wales were going to enjoy exceptionally how temperatures. Now its just the SE of england as usual while us in Wales are stuck with average summer temperatures and a "one day wonder" - not me its the met office saying this. Gutted is the word! We need a massive shift of 300 miles to the west of the warm air to bring Wales into the heat. -
Model output discussion - into July 2020
NApplewhite replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
For Wales we are facing a warm day on Friday then its game over. If the ECMWF medium range is to believe i will have the central heating on here and my hat gloves scarves and tights on to keep warm next Friday as we shiver up North -
Model output discussion - into July 2020
NApplewhite replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
27 overnight in London only 16 here in Wrexham. Im only 161 miles from the capital -
Model output discussion - into July 2020
NApplewhite replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Most weather apps are only going for 20 degrees on Saturday onwards! How can they ignore the Upper 850s! i dont understand. Sites like Accuweather always seem to massively understate or underpredict future temps1 -
Model output discussion - into July 2020
NApplewhite replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
London showing 40 degrees on Monday. What is the exact town or city that hangs onto the imported SE heat? Ie where does the heat end in England? Looks like im only 161 miles from the heatwave! we just get one warm day. -
Model output discussion - into July 2020
NApplewhite replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Last Sunday we were looking at blowtorch temps in Wrexham of 30 degrees for 3-4 days now we might squeeze out 1 day. The GFS has messed up again! I hate progressive charts!