NApplewhite

A fair start to the day in eastern parts of Scotland and eastern England with some bright or sunny spells here. Rain and cloud through Ireland, Wales and southwest England early in the morning, this then spreading east and north during the day. Wet in Scotland in the afternoon, heavy in the southwest. Damp in eastern England, although heavier rain in northwest England. Drizzle for southern England and Wales and staying rather cloudy. Staying wet in western Ireland. Staying breezy for all. Highs at 10 to 14C. Friday Another unsettled day on a Friday as a shallow area of low pressure crosses Ireland and the UK. This brings rain into Ireland and western parts of England and Wales through the morning, spreading eastwards through the afternoon although turning lighter and more patchy. East Anglia and southeast England may stay dry although always some drizzle along southern coasts. Scotland will have some rain in the south but most other parts will be drier with sunny spells, apart from a few showers on western coasts. Highs at 16C in much of southern and eastern England, 14C in northwest England and Wales, 10 to 12C in Scotland and Ireland. Saturday A deep area of low pressure over Ireland on Saturday will be bringing a windy day to all. There will be rain, most of it in the north and west and some of it could be heavy. Eastern parts will see more patchy rain although it is going to be staying windy here as well. Heavy showers across Ireland, some of them could be thundery. A risk of severe gales in the west. Highs at 10 to 16C. Sunday 1/11/20 Another unsettled day with more wind and rain for most areas. The heaviest of the rain will be across western parts of England, Wales and western Scotland as well as Ireland. Eastern parts of England and Scotland seeing light rain overall. Highs at 9 to 16C. Monday 2/11/20 Rain may linger across southern counties of England through Monday as a front become slow moving. Elsewhere it should be brighter with some sunny spells, but also showers affecting western areas. The heaviest of the showers in western Scotland and western Ireland. Cooler for all. Highs at 8 to 12C. Tuesday 3/11/20 Day of sunshine and more widespread showers on Tuesday. The showers may be heavy I will pass from west to east. Longer spells of showers could affect western Scotland and the west of Ireland. A breezy day. Highs at 8 to 12C. Wednesday 4/11/20 A ridge of high pressure builds across the UK and Ireland on Wednesday. There may be some morning mist and fog patches in more sheltered areas as well as a touch of ground frost. For most the day will be bright and dry with some decent sunny intervals. Highs at 8 to 12C. Thursday 5/11/20 No pressure remains across the country on Thursday. They may again be some morning mist and fog patches and these could be slow to clear. Where they do the day should be dry and bright. Breezier in northern Scotland where they could be a few spots of rain. Tempertaures around 7 to 11C.

Turning more unsettled over the next 8 days.

Drier and colder than normal across the UK over the next 4 days. High pressure to NW of UK. Turning unsettled over the period October 19th to 26th 2020. Source:ECMWF 12 October update.

Look at this chart for the end of October! very cold and stormy

Turning briefly a little milder this weekend according to the GFS. Then colder with wind and rain following . A little drier for the far south

Mixed October ahead followed by a wet November and average December . Slightly higher pressure than normally in June 2021. Is the Netweather Autumn forecast out yet?

Turning very stormy next week across the whole UK

Hurricane Sally Discussion Number 15 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL192020 1000 PM CDT Mon Sep 14 2020 After rapidly strengthening earlier today, Sally's intensity has plateaued for now. Both the NOAA and Air Force Hurricane Hunters have been investigating Sally this evening and they have found that the minimum pressure and winds have leveled off, and support perhaps a generous initial intensity of 85 kt. Doppler radar images and reports from both aircraft indicate the inner core of the hurricane is quite small and that the eyewall is open on the south side, likely due to some dry air that has wrapped into that portion of the circulation. Aircraft and Doppler radar fixes indicate that Sally is moving very slowly to the west-northwest, with the latest initial motion estimated to be 300/3 kt. Weak high pressure ridging to the north and east of Sally is expected to cause the hurricane to continue to move slowly west-northwestward to northwestward for another 12 hours, bringing the center of the storm very near the northern Gulf coast. By Tuesday afternoon, when the hurricane will likely be just offshore, the models show the steering currents collapsing and Sally is likely to drift northward before finally turning northeastward ahead of a developing mid-level trough over the central U.S. by late Wednesday. There continues to be a significant amount of uncertainty on exactly where and when Sally turns northward and makes landfall, with model solutions ranging from a landfall on the Florida panhandle to a landfall in extreme southeastern Louisiana. It should be emphasized that it is always challenging to forecast the track of hurricanes in weak steering currents, and in Sally's case the weak steering is occurring very near land. The new NHC track forecast is a little to the east of the previous one, trending toward the latest consensus aids. Sally is still in generally favorable environmental conditions consisting of very warm SSTs and low wind shear. Since the hurricane will likely remain in those conditions through Tuesday morning, some strengthening seems likely in the short term. In 12 to 24 hours, when Sally is forecast to be very near the coast, a combination of an increase in westerly shear and cooler upwelled shelf waters should limit additional intensification. After the hurricane makes landfall, rapid weakening is forecast and Sally should become post-tropical in 3 to 4 days over the southeast U.S. The NHC intensity forecast lies at the high end of the model guidance and is quite similar to the previous one. Users are reminded to not focus on the exact forecast track or the specific timing and location of landfall. Hurricane-force winds, dangerous storm surge, and flooding rainfall will affect a large portion of the north-central Gulf Coast during the next few days. KEY MESSAGES: 1. It is still too early to determine where Sally's center will move onshore given the uncertainty in the timing and location of Sally's northward turn near the central Gulf Coast. Users should not focus on the details of the official forecast track, since NHC's average forecast error at 36 hours is around 60 miles, and dangerous storm surge, rainfall, and wind hazards will extend well away from the center. 2. An extremely dangerous and life-threatening storm surge is expected for areas outside the southeastern Louisiana Hurricane and Storm Damage Risk Reduction System from Port Fourchon, Louisiana, to the Okaloosa/Walton County Line in the Florida Panhandle, where a Storm Surge Warning is in effect. Residents in these areas should follow any advice given by local officials. 3. Hurricane conditions are expected early Tuesday within the Hurricane Warning area in southeastern Louisiana and are expected by late Tuesday and Tuesday night within the Hurricane Warning area along the Mississippi and Alabama coastlines and the western Florida Panhandle. Tropical storm conditions are already occurring in some of these areas. 4. Life-threatening flash flooding is likely with Sally, as well as widespread minor to isolated major flooding on area rivers, along and just inland of the Central Gulf Coast. Significant flash and urban flooding, as well as widespread minor to moderate river flooding is likely across inland portions of Mississippi and Alabama and into northern Georgia, southeastern Tennessee and the western Carolinas through the week. Sally may continue to produce flash flooding across the Florida peninsula and prolong existing minor river flooding across west-central Florida through tonight. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 15/0300Z 28.9N 87.6W 85 KT 100 MPH 12H 15/1200Z 29.1N 88.1W 95 KT 110 MPH 24H 16/0000Z 29.6N 88.4W 90 KT 105 MPH 36H 16/1200Z 30.4N 88.3W 85 KT 100 MPH...INLAND 48H 17/0000Z 31.3N 87.4W 50 KT 60 MPH...INLAND 60H 17/1200Z 32.0N 86.3W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 72H 18/0000Z 32.7N 84.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND 96H 19/0000Z 33.1N 82.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 20/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Cangialosi

Settled into the end of the month apart from a few small blips - FL I KNOW! Next Tuesday expect cold wind and rain. Storms heading our way from the Atlantic - Ex Hurricane Sally perhaps?

I am looking for the first frosty night/morning!

Any snow on the horizon ??

Looking good! no sign of rain in England and Wales for a long time! Perhaps we are heading towards a drought! please let us have a dry hot autumn . Spoke too soon - some rain in the forecast for Sunday and 30% risk of Rain on the 26th September in Northern England according to the models

The storm is off the SW coast of Italy but i've checked the weather for Corfu for Wednesday and temps are 36 degrees with long sunny periods so i don't know where its heading.

Very wet and windy next Tuesday to Friday according to GEM but looks more settled again at very long range - high pressure re-establishes over UK even on the 27th September 2020 - 30th September after next weeks heavy rain. But thats for the future - enjoy today's hot weather. ICON looks good for this Saturday from a sunshine perspective but expect much cooler temperatures.

I must say these are the most stunning mid- late September Modelling charts i have seen in 35 years of watching and analysing the weather. Can anyone on the forums remember such summery charts in late September ? I am astonished at this! Speechless in fact! If this was mid June or July what temperatures would we be expecting?

Why arent the ECM models being reflected in the weather apps ? they arent reflecting the latest model outputs

Slight downgrade of next weeks heatwave turning into a 2-3 day warm/hot spell mostly in London and the SE. Much colder the following weekend (Sept 18th -20th)

I think i need an explanation from Tamara as to why we are seeing the hot spell next week!

Remarkable ECMWF for Mid-September! Astonishing.

Is this a result of the AAM turning positve and an impact further downstream from the US heatdome this week and the jet stream changing as a result Remarkable change in temperatures in Denver! 33 degrees down to 1 degree in 24-36 hours!

Possible heatwave in SE England next week with two tropical nights predicted and temps of 30 to 35 degrees in London. Is this a sign of climate change! Nigel

Temps of 24 degrees in Northern England and 28 in London next week . I thought we were meant for strong winds and rain this weekend coming now high pressure noses in from the Azores