Bradley in Kent

I suppose with 1981 - 2010 vs. 1991 - 2020 you're looking at how the 1980s compared to the 2010s and how those decades skew the average both datasets sharing the 1990s and 2000s I wasn't alive but looking at graphs it appears the 80s had some proper summers and a fair scattering of cold winters as well. (On paper 1980s looks like the best decade if extremes and a more continental vibe are your thing) Looking at 2011 to 2020, it was the near opposite being very 'Atlantic' in comparison with some very mild winters and drab high summers. If this year does end up being a 12 monther, it wouldn't surprise me as temperature records just keep falling. Before December 2022, the previous below average month was 19 months before in May 2021. So we've gone for over a period of 12 months already, just a matter of time before it tallys with a calendar year.

Absolutely agree with how one can't predict the weather months ahead. What I will say though is that, just like short to mid-term forecasts, a warm outlook weighs more than cold outlook based on the most recent update. I'm basing this on warmth equaling energy and cold being the lack of energy. A lack of energy will always be beaten by energy in itself. Perhaps a similar analogy is light beating darkness which is why there's more daylight and twilight on Earth than true night. Not going to write off this winter, simply acknowledging that crisp days, frost and snow will be extra special as such conditions will really be against the background signals, that being El Nino & +IOD duo, strong PV and higher SSTs not to mention the 'warm September/October' omen!

Drab Summers seem to be exasperated when there's no major sports competitions or national events I feel. September has just about made it up!

This is one of my favourite threads on NW! I'm looking forward to watching the advance through Autumn in particular. I enjoy the quality in depth analysis of data which makes it more understandable and enjoyable to follow! EDIT: I think it's been quiet because of the hot weather where many have been in a belated Summer mode

Evening all, Years ago, I remember reading an article on Metcheck which talks about this very thing. It's well worth a read and I reckon it'll be very relevant based on posts in this chat. For ease I've linked it below: Metcheck.com - UK Weather Singularities - Average Weather Across The UK Every Year. WWW.METCHECK.COM Metcheck.com - UK Weather Singularities -...

Eugh one hopes not but we'll no doubt be getting more of these verifying in years to come. Many places in Europe in low to mid single digits and certainly no BTFEs for the UK! December 2022 did prove though that the UK can make it's own cold air if things stay slack!

Evening all, Interesting posts and good reads as ever Okay I know this is Heathrow and the hot spell hasn't actually happened yet, but you'll struggle to find a forecast like this anytime of year in the UK. It's going to be a warm one that's for sure!

Well, that's Summer done from a meteorological POV. Very disappointing after the record June although I suppose at least we had a good June, better than a complete no show like some years like 2011 which was cool, drab and stormless throughout! I'm glad we've got some warmth left in the traditional astronomic summer. We'll have to see how long it lasts but there's something to look forward to and enjoy. Just a bit more warmth please then we can have true autumn afterwards. I'm not quite ready for true autumn just yet!

Not a good time of year to want absolute warmth, although relative warmth in of course doable especially nowadays!

Yes it's normally the August Bank Holiday one notices the change. A bit like how around the last weekend of February you start to feel warmth in the sun and all the early flowers are out. A few trees have been on the turn for a least a 3 weeks now be it a minority. Robins sing during the day and some mushrooms are starting to coming up. Much like the first 3 weeks of March though, the prior season can still show up easily or hold on sticking to the astronomic calendar. Change is starting, but it won't gather real pace for another 6 weeks yet. Let's face it, we knew by mid July that the true high summer boat (as in spells >30c) had been missed. Time to look forward or hope for some pleasant conditions this Autumn and put Summer 2023 down as experience; make the most of it even in June, because you never know when it'll end!

Just watch come November the jet will be revving up and the blocking will dissipate. Heights will build strongly over the Med and we'll be locked into a 2019/20 style winter. This blocking tendency won't last forever and I've just got this feeling we're entering a period of drab conditions like Autumn 2006 to Autumn 2009.

We're somehow managing 24c here but it's blowing a hoolie so not BBQ conditions. Where this'll be the worst July in 11 years, I've still been surprised (when considering synoptics) how many warm days we've managed to squeeze out at least here in Kent. Got to say though yesterday was truly awful!

I think that's the case for a lot of people. Historically in times where geography and weather had a more direct impact on people's lives, our benign climate and landscape was a good thing. It's a shame since WW2 that we haven't taken enough measures to improve living standards in a country where you need to make up for the rather drab geography which is no longer a blessing. If you look at the Netherlands or Ireland for example, both nations have the same climate and gentle geography as us. However overall living standards are higher through good town planning/architecture (especially Netherlands) or economic policies. If you live somewhere where everyone has good opportunities, strong community and your town is clean, safe and aesthetically pleasaing, you don't mind days like today! Put things in reverse, there are many countries which struggle socioeconomically and are worse off than the UK. In those regions the dramatic scenery (mountain ranges for example) and/or better climate does a lot more heavy lifting for those societies! Then you got places which have it all, good standards of living, strong economy, nice towns, interesting or pleasant climate and stunning landscapes - Scandinavia, Canada or maybe Australia come to mind! (BTW I've been to all the places mentioned) Oh sorry I've forgotten to mention, football is also keeping me here!

Many local unofficial stations in the 23c to 25c range. Some cloud some sun with light winds. Pleasant enough considering synoptics. However, I still can't help feeling a bit disappointed at a time of year when weather has a bigger impact on lifestyle. We had a very warm June with high SSTs. It was looking like we were in for a proper summer, but something happened and it went 'wrong' so to speak. Definitely a setup which seems to benefit less all round. Greenland and Arctic suffers from higher melting, we get stuck under a load of green snot and the Med with Eastern Europe suffer from extreme heat!

The jetsream has been very amplified in recent years with more meridional patterns. High pressures and low pressures (or ridges and troughs) are slows to move west to east. So instead of a flatter jetstream keeping systems mobile, we've been experiencing the opposite where systems are getting entrenched leading to very episodic weather. I doubt though I'll last much longer, we'll no doubt resume a more mobile pattern with a general mix of weather soon for sure!

We need the Greenland heights to go which the models seem to be eluding to and hence portraying better conditions. Fingers crossed we'll see this trend over coming days

Well, it looks like we've peaked people. Granted there'll still be the odd usable spells in August and September but it's too late now to build back the synoptics if prolonged warm and sunny weather if that is what you're after. Hot 'High Summers' are built from building blocks put in place in May / June. Funny how like last winter the most seasonal weather occurred pre-solistice! I just can't see August delivering anything sustained. Think about it though, 1977 was dreadful at least on paper as was 2004 and 2007. After 2022, we did at least manage to get a record breaking June out of it!

Sandwich Summer anyone?

The SE admittedly fairs best in these setups. 22.5c when I got back from work at 6pm. I'd prefer it a bit warmer but a breezy run of 20c - 23c with the odd shower isn't a disaster. Usable I'd say albeit boring from a model watching POV!

Oh dear, this is the winter equivalent of having just had a mild westerly week, a short northerly snap over the weekend before going back to mild westerly again with no end in sight. Best take a couple of weeks off and hope end of July into August brings something. Saturday could bring some convective interest at least

Yes 22c to me is the line between cool vs. warm if asked. When looking at forecasts for a non-working day this time of year 23c is a 'be outside day and make use' where 21c is 'nah, bit cool and not fussed if outside or inside'... I think because 20c is basically room temperature and to extend the comfortable period of day you need a max several degrees above.

Evening all, So it looks like a record breaking (or at least a podium position) June comes to a close. Must say regardless of how the rest of the Summer goes I'd have been pleased if you told me last Spring that Summer 2023 will feature a very warm June. Having done some research it appears that even the classic Summers have included several cool and unsettled spells. For example, 1976 had a cool spell first third of June, middle third of July and last third of August. In addition, I've been lucky enough to be in a few parts of the world in their Summers and we are not the only ones to experience days like today in Summer. I recall staying with relatives in Southern France in July and having blustery showers with temps around 18c for a week. Same too goes for Northern Spain and Germany. More surprisingly Australia and New Zealand also experience disappointing weather in Summer. Many days did I experience that drab, overcast, cool and windy conditions in places like Melbourne and Christchurch. So no need to panic just yet. If we're in the same scenario in a months time with cool ensembles into mid August then we can write the Summer off. I'll admit though it's easy to overreact to poor forecasts, but sometimes a step back is needed to look at the bigger picture!

If Summer was a weekend (for those who work Mon-Fri) May - it's Friday daytime and your at work looking forward to the weekend and you're tying loose ends June - you've finished work and down the pub. It's Friday night and everyone is hopeful and in a good mood July - it's Saturday and it's all in full swing (football, gatherings, drinking sessions and the like) August - The Sunday of Summer. Sometimes though it's a continuation of Saturday, sometimes it's a hangover day. September - Often a Monday but sometimes you might have booked leave or have a bank holiday so still a good time. If it's been a good season / weekend one feels positive, but if it's disappointing one feels melancholic and not ready for the upcoming week or in this analogy 6 months of cool and damp weather! I'll type this now, I enjoy my job on the whole and don't wish time away to that extent. But I will say, if I've had a good weekend and Summer, I'm positive about the following working week or Autumn. If it's been naff though, I am not ready for work or the Autumn!

We'll have to see if the SSTs continue to rise through the Summer or if they'll plateau. If they keep rising it'll be one humid late Summer / Autumn. It's been noticeable how it's felt like August of late in terms of evening temps and humidity.

The wind has really picked up which (I'm guessing is the same 30 miles South) is laterally ripping apart any convection columns. Very little lightning to speak of so basically we're now looking at a bit of rain from the South; hardly noteworthy! It happens time and time again, models and forecasters completely overdo thunderstorms. But then again I fool for it time and time again!