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SunnyDazee

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Posts posted by SunnyDazee

    Summer 2019 - Moans, Ramps, Chat etc

    in Spring Weather Discussion

    Posted · Edited by reef
    Topic title

    I’ve noticed we don’t have a summer weather forum open yet, so I thought I’d start this up to get everyone’s idea on the summer. The current predictions from the long range forecasts indicate a very very warm summer again. I think this is entirely possible and I think many have resigned to this, as 2007 style floods are looking more unlikely day by day with the weather trends. I was concerned we was gonna get a cool summer after February, but gradually I’ve seen the models and forecasters predict it to be very warm. I appreciate not everyone likes this weather, so how does everyone else feel this summer will be? I think May June July and early August will be cracking for us warmies. 

    Model Output Discussion - What does April have in store?

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    9 minutes ago, knocker said:

    A reminder to myself, again, not to comment on the post(s) of others in future

    I don’t mean no harm personally mate, we usually tend to spin it how we like the weather, it’s only a bit of banter. Sorry if what I posted or what others posted if it made you feel bad, we don’t mean it. Different outputs are showing different things I agree, the overall trend on the majority shows more settled weather, but of course yours looked unsettled. You’re obviously very lnowledgable I’m not criticising you one bit!

    • Like 6

    Model Output Discussion - What does April have in store?

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted · Edited by SunnyDazee

    27 minutes ago, Mattwolves said:

    I don't care what certain folk say, this unsettled spell is going to be shortlived.... Fact.... Today's major downpours Brought about half hour of rain here.... Didnt even water the dafs!!!! May is shaping up for plenty of fine and warm conditions, let's just hope we don't end up with an hose pipe ban.... Because come summer we will be needing them big time to cool down......

    water-hose-gif.gif

    Also brought us in Wigan about 20/30 minutes of showers, with 1 sound of thunder. Was pretty pathetic considering what I was expecting. Tomorrow will be another test but even then I doubt they’ll be that bad. GFS parallel, Ensemble and CFS v2 also showing starting next week warmer weather for us. I think we’ll be fine, just a nice little shower to get ready for the monster summer! 1976 style fingers crossed

    • Like 3

    Model Output Discussion - What does April have in store?

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    3 minutes ago, knocker said:

    I would not call that settled at t198

    t198.thumb.png.4be892a65d1007c9c39162a516639a42.png

    That doesn’t look settled I agree, the models do look like they’re becoming less unsettled though in general, we’re bound to have some models showing the weather that was originally predicted I think, the trend does suggest more settled though. May Day bank holiday just a couple of days ago was showing temperatures of 12 degrees and low pressure, now suggesting high pressure and 16/17 degrees. It’s one of those we’ll only find out the closer we get

    • Like 4

    Model Output Discussion - What does April have in store?

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    5 minutes ago, Frosty. said:

    Soon there will be talk of a drought again lordy lordy...still, it's nice to see this improvement in the mid and longer range..hope I haven't jinxed it now!:crazy:

    Get ready for our hosepipe bans next week . I hope you haven’t too however as I’ve said earlier, the long range predictions tend to be much cooler and wetter than when it gets closer. The thunderstorms predicted in Wigan today were more like heavy showers. It was a joke honestly 

    • Like 3

    Model Output Discussion - What does April have in store?

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    1 minute ago, Mattwolves said:

    Yes good point, I recall in the summer of 95 a breakdown being forecast with a fair bit of rain due to low pressure being in charge.... And basically temps got a bit more suppressed and it remained largely cloudy and dry... I remember the forecaster Charlie Neil at the time saying, things aren't to bad at all considering we have low pressure in control! I still think this so called unsettled spell is gonna be very brief, certainly not long enough to keep the rain brigade happy. 

    Absolutely, I agree there. I’ve looked at my forecast for the next 10 days, all of them were rainy just a couple of days ago, now Sunday is supposed to be warming up, that’s 3/4 days rain and not the downpours that were earlier anticipated. Similarly to how our winter was predicted to be freezing due to the long warm summer and Indian summer we experienced last year, when in reality apart from a week or two it was reasonably mild. I still think we’ll get a good amount of rain, but I’m doubtful of thunderstorms and I’m doubtful about how long it will last. This weekend we’ll be able to tell although next week looks better for me, temps possibly up to 18-19 degrees again

    • Like 4

    Model Output Discussion - What does April have in store?

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    12 minutes ago, Mattwolves said:

    In all honesty I don't think we are gonna be indulging the widespread and big rainfall amounts the recent models have been predicting, for Instance this thundery rain spreading up from the South today, won't be affecting everyone! The East looks pretty good to me. 

    Even yesterday, near Manchester it was supposed to be hammering it down right now. Currently it’s sunny and 19 degrees. I wonder if our models are often quite conservative in thinking that there has to be a lot of rain just because we’ve had low rain levels, when actually we only get moderate rainfall and not the massive torrential downpours. 

    • Like 3

    Model Output Discussion - What does April have in store?

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    28 minutes ago, Frosty. said:

    It currently has very little support on the GEFS but like a little acorn i hope it grows into a mighty oak.

    Signs that 2nd and 3rd week of May are looking warmer and dryer than average are slightly starting to occur. Data is scarce but there’s warmer temperatures on the North Sea and in France. I think we’ll probably get some warmer weather come mid May just like last year. This weather has been rather like last year so far, almost a carbon copy. We might not have had the beast from the east as such but there were a few consecutive days in January and February where temps didn’t rise above 0 degrees and it was snowing, which was essentially the same conditions as beast from the east here in the west.

    • Like 6

    Model Output Discussion - What does April have in store?

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    38 minutes ago, Mattwolves said:

    I don't think things have changed much overnight, plenty of rain and showers and wind over the coming days, but I still think pressure will build beyond the 1st week of May and become warmer.... Could it even be cold enough for wintry showers over Northern hills this weekend, early next week!!! I've got a feeling in me water though that once again come next bank holiday, we will be in a similar scenario to the one we have just encountered!! Long way off but its feasible. Until then get your cameras ready for some potential thundery activity.

    original.gif

    Agreed with this again. Is the met office contingency planner down for you? They could be adding the 3 month outlook today https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/services/public-sector/contingency-planners?WT.mc_id=Twitter_Weatherdesk_Enquiries

    • Thanks 1

    Spring 2019 - Moans, Ramps, Chat etc

    in Spring Weather Discussion

    Posted

    31 minutes ago, Sir Mim said:

    .....

     

    Eugh

    I don’t have AC, I just enjoy sweating to high heaven whilst eating ice cream and sitting in the garden. Cold showers help if it gets too hot. However I do like a good old barby too, something you can’t have in a wet summer. Finally, I do like being able to travel out and about without having to worry about the rain. I’d much rather have it so it was 20-25 degrees and warm like this week all year around, but I’d also much rather prefer 35 degree heatwaves than 15 degrees cool summers. Don’t even get me started on Winter!

    • Like 1

    Model Output Discussion - What does April have in store?

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted · Edited by SunnyDazee

    17 minutes ago, Mattwolves said:

    First time I've seen you post... But I like you already some good points made and tbh I was sceptical of this summer originally, but now I'm feeling more confident of something quite special again. The coming weeks rain could soon become a distant blip... Not everyones cup of tea I no, but perhaps its something we are gonna have to get used to over the coming years.

    Thanks a lot! I’m new, only joined 2 or so weeks ago as I wanted to learn more about the weather as it’s something I’ve always lived with day by day not really caring about it, however this changed at the end of 2018 and I’ve been making myself familiar with all the terms used and being on this site with great people always helps. To add to my point, the latest met office contingency planner, long range sea temperatures, the French met office, the Icelandic met office, CFS (which is slated but of recently has been highly accurate) all indicate above average temperatures for the coming months. The next Met Office contingency is due in the next couple of days, bare in mind the last had the weather being in the top category at 45%, last year it was at 40%. So if it drops down slightly to 35% or 40%, it could look less likely on the surface, but be more accurate as it’s been shown over the last several months indicating consistency. 5% chance it being in the coldest category (similarly to 2007 and 2012 level coolness) you can essentially take as 0, since they can never place it as 0% as there’s always a chance. However it’s also saying that drier weather is more likely than wetter weather too. All in all positive signs (so far, again touch wood) for us who are Solarphiles rather than Solarphobes

    • Like 8

    Model Output Discussion - What does April have in store?

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    7 minutes ago, Mattwolves said:

    So some welcome rain for some to come beyond Wednesday, out to day 7, I'm seeing signs of improvement and a gradual warming, ECM perhaps flagging this up tonight, so another cracker tomorrow and then perhaps the heavens open up for a while, never overly cold though..... Ntly!!!! Forget it.... They've got no bite in winter, let alone may!

    I'm sure the rain is gonna cheer a few on here up.... 

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    giphy-2.gif

    I agree with everything you’ve said. The early signs for summer is May will be warm, June boiling hot, July warm-hot and it’ll be quite similar to last year. The next 2-3 weeks will probably (touch wood) be the final wet and cool extended spells for a good few months. With August September and October looking warmer than average, albeit August slightly wetter, it certainly follows the blueprint of many good summers, like last year and 1995. Not sure how hot July will be yet so not quite 1976 levels, but doesn’t at this stage look 2007 or 2012 like

    • Like 1
    • Thanks 1

    Spring 2019 - Moans, Ramps, Chat etc

    in Spring Weather Discussion

    Posted

    6 minutes ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

    cannot understand anyone wanting rain, From about Wimbledon time to mid-late Aug, rain gives me a bad chest, fungal spore allergy

    the warmer and drier the better

    The cold kills a lot more than the warm, I agree. I can see why people would want it cool but cold all year? That’s not for me. Each to their own though and that’s why all the opinions on here make it a cracking place to be. May it be 50 degrees and snowing everyone!!!

    Spring 2019 - Moans, Ramps, Chat etc

    in Spring Weather Discussion

    Posted · Edited by SunnyDazee

    54 minutes ago, Sir Mim said:

    Looking bloody awful more like!  

    Early May looks awful. Not late May and certainly not June from my perspective anyways! If you’d like it cold then I suggest cold showers lol that’s how I get about it. Honestly though that cool breeze we had today made it pleasant. I just think there’s nothing like getting into the Wimbledon and hot weather spirit in summer personally but obviously that’s my preferance

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