SunnyDazee
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Posts posted by SunnyDazee
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On 11/05/2019 at 14:24, Earthshine said:
Despite the cool temperatures, it hasn't been a bad month so far here. Plenty of dry weather. Perhaps this cooler weather will be followed by a long-overdue backloaded summer?
I’m starting to think this too, Late June, July and Early August rather than May June and July. Also could mean warmer autumn
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2 hours ago, Mike Poole said:
No not really, I still think June and July will be better than August, it is just that we haven't had the very warm and settled second half of Spring that we had last year.
Thanks for clearing that up. Still waiting for a good August lol
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2 hours ago, Mike Poole said:
Some longer term musings from me tonight. My position coming into spring (my 'prior' in Bayesian speak) was that summer would be decent and hot one, but less settled overall than last year (see previous posts I think around early April), with more thundery breakdowns.
How are things looking now? On no account can it be argued that the latter half of Spring is similar to last year! I think some of that can be put down to the late and exceptionally strong final warming in the stratosphere, which has resulted in the kind of high latitude blocking that those of a cold persuasion crave in the winter, this year without result.
But that should dissipate, and if it does where does it leave us? Long range model output over the last few months has favoured high pressure domination in the region of the UK, although as far as I can see with more variability as to precise location re the UK (see my post yesterday on latest CFS runs). Sea surface temperatures are interesting, the current ones conducive to N Europe high pressure:
Compare mid April last year and mid June last year:
Clearly in April SST subdued near the UK after the Beast From the East, by June that's all gone after the hot second half of Spring last year. We haven't had that this year, so we could end up in a similar place by mid June, close to UK, but we need to watch the heat from Azores to UK, very strong last year, a signal there this year but weaker at the moment. The cold water south of Greenland is present in all plots though - some continuity there.
So there may be some similarities with model output, SSTs going into summer, also atmospheric angular momentum (AAM) generally above average looks likely (see recent post by @Tamara ).
Todays models, here GFS, FV3, GEM and ECM on NH view at T240:
Whilst the blocking is to the north, the models are not suggesting a rampant Greenland high. Remember last year, in May the driest warmest weather was in the NW, only translating to the heatwave further south in mid June.
Different so far, but is the journey into summer 2019 about to join a similar track to 2018, but a month or a bit more down the line. Will be interesting to see!
Very brilliantly fantastically amazing analysis as always . Are you saying you think this summer could be a backloaded one then? With our June being rather like our May of last year (warm spells with unsettled) and then July and August being hot?
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7 minutes ago, Scorcher said:
Just looked back on the records, it was also still 25C at 2.00 am that night of the 19th/20th. Remarkable and I can't recall a warmer night around these parts.
Unreal that is. 25c at 2am is unheard of here isn’t it?
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4 minutes ago, Scorcher said:
July 2016 was rather poor in these parts apart from that short (although admittedly impressive) hot spell around mid month. I recall that extraordinary night (around the 19th I think) when it was 26C at Manchester Airport at midnight.
I remember that too, crazy night wasn’t it? July usually has a hot spell though lasting a few days that is a usual certainty that’s my point. To be fair there’s been updates today and the Northern Blocking has slackened down and a SE wind is said to be rising, which is brill news if true, also it’s not looking as bad going into June as was predicted so hopefully the models move in our favour
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28 minutes ago, Roger J Smith said:
The last May to average below the 1981-2010 normal of 11.7 (or 1961-90 of 11.2) was 2015 (10.8).
In general, most questions about recent CET values and averages or extremes can be solved by looking at the introductory post to these threads (which is always following the same format). The CET values for each year since 1981 are posted along with various 30-year averages.
I realised this after I’d posted, thanks for clearing it up Roger and I’ll check the list next time
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Hoping to be the bearer of good news! CFS v2 has backed off from June northern blocking indicating a south easterly wind and high pressure over Germany stretching to the UK. Definitely looking much better than what was being shown before, the second best thing after the fact it’s Friday today lol
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24 minutes ago, Quicksilver1989 said:
This month has been dominated by northerlies so far, although I think May 1991 was dominated by them to any even greater extent in its first half.
That was quite a backloaded summer wasn’t it?
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2 minutes ago, Frosty. said:
Only just had a peek at the Ecm 00z ensemble mean, not checked any other models yet but if that's anything to go by the Atlantic is dead in the water as far as the uk is concerned, it looks very blocked indeed!!
The next week looks nice I think. All change come next Friday on these said models but fingers crossed HP can hold on for a while as I don’t want my winter coat out in the Summer it’ll get worn out and I’m skint
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JMA and 500 hPa forecasts looking much better after yesterday’s stinkers. Average to below average precipitation and warmer than average temperatures. Deep breath needed I think after seeing this as it restores a bit of hope from my own perspective. Signs that the weather may not all be that bad going into early June then
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12 minutes ago, Sunny76 said:
1988? Eurgh no!
I would take 1987 over that, even though that was a dire summer, we still had about 3 weeks or so of warm to hot weather between late June and August of that year.
It’s just from far out models. The BCC has northern blocking continuing until mid June at least (That’s when the 40day forecast finishes) however other models show different. There’s signs of 1988 in some and 2013 in others. They’re a mess at the moment. This summer was predicted to be very frontloaded though but now it looks like July and August may have to save the summer at the moment, (July has been good to fantastic in all but 2015 in the last few years) however August is as reliable as a table with 3 legs. Fingers crossed though that the better models prevail as some still show above average temperature even if they have northern blocking which is unusual. We are due a hot August now though, not had one for a good 15 years really (and when we get hot August’s we tend to know about it!)
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16 minutes ago, Quicksilver1989 said:
There is a good chance although the ECM is warmer then the GFS still. 2015 and 2013 were the last 2 Mays with below average temperatures but both produced very different summers. Worth noting that May 2015 was dominated by cyclonic WSW winds whilst 2013 was dominated by NW winds however, so synoptically very different.
Fantastic thanks for getting back to me, we’ve had N’lys but are we getting W/SW at the moment? I’m struggling to read the wind finder forecasts they’ve got wind coming from everywhere lol
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33 minutes ago, Sunny76 said:
I’ll admit I don’t mind the poor May so far, because we have the damp cool weather mixed with brief warm interludes while still chilly when the clouds move in. If this is a pattern for summer to come, it might provide more chances of thunderstorm and perhaps more frequently.
However, while I appreciate some on here don’t want another 2018, 2013, or 2006/95 style summer, I’m hoping we don’t face another 2011 or 12. The latter will look more likely if we are still having this discussion by the middle of June.
i will be happy with more 21-24c days, and this is something even the south has failed to record so far in May.
I’m 90% confident May will finish below average. Just seen the fantastic BornFromTheVoid’s CET projection and that has us 1.4c under average on the 19th of May. Would need low 20’s days and 10c nights for the rest of May which so far looks pretty unlikely, just as it does in models. So if May is cooler than average, June could also be cooler than average if this pattern we are seeing follows on. This is starting to worry me already as I like the warmer weather, I can already see signs of a 1988 ish poor summer. Either it’s gonna be back loaded like 2013, or it’s gonna be a write off in my opinion
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12 minutes ago, BornFromTheVoid said:
Assuming the forecast to the 19th is correct, we'd need the final 12 days of the month to average at least 15C to reach the 81-10 average by months end (but probably more than 15C if we include corrections). So minima around 10C and maxima in the low 20s would do it.
Finally, what was the last year to have a May below average do you know? It’d be interesting to see how the summer was after that considering I’m 80% sure this May is gonna be below average
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7 minutes ago, BornFromTheVoid said:
Below is the estimate of the CET over the next 10 days based on the 06z GFS
The first graph is the provisional data and forecast with daily max, min, mean and the rolling CET, as well as the 81-10 rolling mean. The second graph is the daily mean in relation the the daily high and low mean record values.
The mid month warm up has now diminished into a close to average period, meaning the CET is likely to more than 1C below average as we approach the final third of the month.
8.9C to the 10th would make this year the 4th coolest first 10 days of May in the last 30 yearsIt’s gonna be cooler than average isn’t it? What temps would we need in the last 10 days for it to finish above? Must need constant 20 degree days and mild nights
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Just now, Frosty. said:
I looked at the CFS charts from a recent run and it shows low pressure domination?
Beijing Climate Centre showed this too, northern blocking and low pressures. CFS does look awful in general for both June and July in the models I’ve seen, but I’m happy to be corrected of course
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So following on from the last post, do we think May will be the first month in over a year to be below average? It’s a close call for me, more settled weather coming up but no major temperature boost to counteract what we’ve had so far (-1.2c anomaly). It’s a battle between quantity and “quality” (even though it’s been dross ). If I had to guess right now I’d say we’re gonna finish 0-0.5c above.
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Seems like we’re gonna have to wait until mid June for it to start to settle down completely. I could see a 2013 summer set out, with warm but unstable air, if there’s thunderstorms I hope they’re at night. However back to May and I’m looking forward to this spell of upcoming settled weather indicated by all the models, may be a little bit cooler (high teens rather than low 20’s) but at least it’s settled. How long it lasts is still quite unknown however it’ll be refreshing compared to what we’ve had. GFS models tend to have it dying off on Thursday or Friday, ahead ECMWF has hints of it continuing to the end of the month. There’s extreme conflict in the models beyond that so to people making up long range predictions based on the 11th of May ECMWF model at 9:30pm at night (including me lol), let’s wait for a trend first!
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1 minute ago, Ed Stone said:
We'll all be okay: the dryer's a Hotpoint!
Could still leave me a bit wet and unsettled though if it’s only a brief hotpoint!
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I think the hottest weather next week will be in the West. I’m hoping but not overly confident that this spell will last for more than a week, as when we start to get into next Thursday and Friday there starts to be some model confusions again. For now though, let’s get this torrid December, oops I mean May, weather out the way and enjoy the warmer weather for at least 4 or 5 days
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2 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:
So, you are saying is that this May, so far, has a lot in common with those of 1975, 1983 and 1995?
Sorry for my language, but I bloody hope so
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Northern Blocking looks set to hold out into June, which is reminiscent of a very wet and cool summer. Periods in mid May when the weather looks to start becoming more settled again, however this settled weather looks likely to end going into May 21st on the GFS. If this does hold out into June, we might be in for a bit of a disaster here people, a certain Scottish band comes to mind (Wet Wet Wet). Still quite a while off but I’m losing hope quickly. No sign of warmth in May really, and I think May could be the first below average month in 14 months
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21 minutes ago, Sunny76 said:
If that happens, it will be the poorest start to the early summer since 2016. May was chilly that year and parts of June were quite poor. Although, it turned warmer and humid with those thunderstorms later in the month.
Certainly possible here. I doubt summer will be cool or cold when the Earth is warming so rapidly even when it may be rainy. Solar minimum is due soon which could lead to some duller summers though
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1 hour ago, Frost HoIIow said:
Not that I'm a fan of hot weather but as you say exceptions for sure as May 2003 was mostly cool & unsettled until the last few days of the month but look how the following Summer turned out with the hottest temp ever recorded in the UK.
Which is true. That probably means that if this summer does become warm and settled, it’s likely to be towards the back end of summer. It was early to mid August in 2003 I think when the hot temps were reached (you might be able to correct me) but yes there are certainly exceptions. May looks woeful for the most part and the start of June doesn’t look much better at the moment though
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El Niño and La Niña
in Spring Weather Discussion
Posted
Hi guys,
Some of you might have seen me around before but I’m relatively new to this site and to weather in general. I’ve discovered plenty of things since joining this site and I give my thanks to you all for that. One thing I still don’t understand the concept of is El Niño and La Niña. I get what they are, and I get why they happen, but how do they tend to affect the climate of the U.K.? Are summers wetter or drier, hotter or cooler. Also how do they affect winter? I’ve looked everywhere for a good response for this on the internet and I’ve found nothing that answers my question. So I was wondering if any of you wonderful people could help me out, since El Niño looks to be strengthening currently
Thanks a lot!