SunnyDazee

Hi guys, Some of you might have seen me around before but I’m relatively new to this site and to weather in general. I’ve discovered plenty of things since joining this site and I give my thanks to you all for that. One thing I still don’t understand the concept of is El Niño and La Niña. I get what they are, and I get why they happen, but how do they tend to affect the climate of the U.K.? Are summers wetter or drier, hotter or cooler. Also how do they affect winter? I’ve looked everywhere for a good response for this on the internet and I’ve found nothing that answers my question. So I was wondering if any of you wonderful people could help me out, since El Niño looks to be strengthening currently Thanks a lot!

I’m starting to think this too, Late June, July and Early August rather than May June and July. Also could mean warmer autumn

Thanks for clearing that up. Still waiting for a good August lol

Very brilliantly fantastically amazing analysis as always . Are you saying you think this summer could be a backloaded one then? With our June being rather like our May of last year (warm spells with unsettled) and then July and August being hot?

Unreal that is. 25c at 2am is unheard of here isn’t it?

I remember that too, crazy night wasn’t it? July usually has a hot spell though lasting a few days that is a usual certainty that’s my point. To be fair there’s been updates today and the Northern Blocking has slackened down and a SE wind is said to be rising, which is brill news if true, also it’s not looking as bad going into June as was predicted so hopefully the models move in our favour

I realised this after I’d posted, thanks for clearing it up Roger and I’ll check the list next time

Hoping to be the bearer of good news! CFS v2 has backed off from June northern blocking indicating a south easterly wind and high pressure over Germany stretching to the UK. Definitely looking much better than what was being shown before, the second best thing after the fact it’s Friday today lol

That was quite a backloaded summer wasn’t it?

The next week looks nice I think. All change come next Friday on these said models but fingers crossed HP can hold on for a while as I don’t want my winter coat out in the Summer it’ll get worn out and I’m skint

JMA and 500 hPa forecasts looking much better after yesterday’s stinkers. Average to below average precipitation and warmer than average temperatures. Deep breath needed I think after seeing this as it restores a bit of hope from my own perspective. Signs that the weather may not all be that bad going into early June then

It’s just from far out models. The BCC has northern blocking continuing until mid June at least (That’s when the 40day forecast finishes) however other models show different. There’s signs of 1988 in some and 2013 in others. They’re a mess at the moment. This summer was predicted to be very frontloaded though but now it looks like July and August may have to save the summer at the moment, (July has been good to fantastic in all but 2015 in the last few years) however August is as reliable as a table with 3 legs. Fingers crossed though that the better models prevail as some still show above average temperature even if they have northern blocking which is unusual. We are due a hot August now though, not had one for a good 15 years really (and when we get hot August’s we tend to know about it!)

Fantastic thanks for getting back to me, we’ve had N’lys but are we getting W/SW at the moment? I’m struggling to read the wind finder forecasts they’ve got wind coming from everywhere lol

I’m 90% confident May will finish below average. Just seen the fantastic BornFromTheVoid’s CET projection and that has us 1.4c under average on the 19th of May. Would need low 20’s days and 10c nights for the rest of May which so far looks pretty unlikely, just as it does in models. So if May is cooler than average, June could also be cooler than average if this pattern we are seeing follows on. This is starting to worry me already as I like the warmer weather, I can already see signs of a 1988 ish poor summer. Either it’s gonna be back loaded like 2013, or it’s gonna be a write off in my opinion

Finally, what was the last year to have a May below average do you know? It’d be interesting to see how the summer was after that considering I’m 80% sure this May is gonna be below average

It’s gonna be cooler than average isn’t it? What temps would we need in the last 10 days for it to finish above? Must need constant 20 degree days and mild nights

Beijing Climate Centre showed this too, northern blocking and low pressures. CFS does look awful in general for both June and July in the models I’ve seen, but I’m happy to be corrected of course

So following on from the last post, do we think May will be the first month in over a year to be below average? It’s a close call for me, more settled weather coming up but no major temperature boost to counteract what we’ve had so far (-1.2c anomaly). It’s a battle between quantity and “quality” (even though it’s been dross ). If I had to guess right now I’d say we’re gonna finish 0-0.5c above.

Seems like we’re gonna have to wait until mid June for it to start to settle down completely. I could see a 2013 summer set out, with warm but unstable air, if there’s thunderstorms I hope they’re at night. However back to May and I’m looking forward to this spell of upcoming settled weather indicated by all the models, may be a little bit cooler (high teens rather than low 20’s) but at least it’s settled. How long it lasts is still quite unknown however it’ll be refreshing compared to what we’ve had. GFS models tend to have it dying off on Thursday or Friday, ahead ECMWF has hints of it continuing to the end of the month. There’s extreme conflict in the models beyond that so to people making up long range predictions based on the 11th of May ECMWF model at 9:30pm at night (including me lol), let’s wait for a trend first!

Could still leave me a bit wet and unsettled though if it’s only a brief hotpoint!

I think the hottest weather next week will be in the West. I’m hoping but not overly confident that this spell will last for more than a week, as when we start to get into next Thursday and Friday there starts to be some model confusions again. For now though, let’s get this torrid December, oops I mean May, weather out the way and enjoy the warmer weather for at least 4 or 5 days

Sorry for my language, but I bloody hope so

Northern Blocking looks set to hold out into June, which is reminiscent of a very wet and cool summer. Periods in mid May when the weather looks to start becoming more settled again, however this settled weather looks likely to end going into May 21st on the GFS. If this does hold out into June, we might be in for a bit of a disaster here people, a certain Scottish band comes to mind (Wet Wet Wet). Still quite a while off but I’m losing hope quickly. No sign of warmth in May really, and I think May could be the first below average month in 14 months

Certainly possible here. I doubt summer will be cool or cold when the Earth is warming so rapidly even when it may be rainy. Solar minimum is due soon which could lead to some duller summers though

Which is true. That probably means that if this summer does become warm and settled, it’s likely to be towards the back end of summer. It was early to mid August in 2003 I think when the hot temps were reached (you might be able to correct me) but yes there are certainly exceptions. May looks woeful for the most part and the start of June doesn’t look much better at the moment though