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Thunder and Lightning

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About Thunder and Lightning

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    Formally MetWeather

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    NW London
  • Weather Preferences
    Convective Weather and Snow

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  1. A few models suggesting a spell of snow tomorrow night. Hopefully this delivers something!
  2. I think there is a chance for some surprise storms tomorrow late morning and early afternoon. A warm front looks to lift north during the morning, with a fairly moist environment, at least for winter: temps 11-13c, dps 9-11c This looks to lead to a few hundred j/kg of CAPE, up to 500j/kg on some models. Quite a lot of energy (vorticity) in the upper levels as well as that low slows down. And not too unfavourable upper level wind profiles: increasing wind strength with height and a nice loop in the hodographs (this skew-t was for NW London)
  3. Here are the highlights for this mornings model outputs The NetWx-MR shows a stronger high across the Atlantic brining down a cold northerly into Christmas: ICON showing a stronger low bringing a northerly as well, just not so much of a high in the mid atlantic. UKMO showing a very strong high right across the mid atlantic as well Access-G (don't really know this model) brings a large high into mid atlantic, similar to NetWx-MR and UKMO. This time the low to the E is much weaker and further E. The GFS has a similar ridge but it is squished to gi
  4. Hopefully none of the models join this trend Low pressure really breaks into the UK this run. At least the flow on this is still NW not SW πŸ˜…
  5. The 12z GFS shows quite an amplified pattern across the US moving into the Atlantic It looks like things may be trying to erode the ridge but we will see how things play out further through the run
  6. In this run it does look like the ridge will be broken down, but it doesn't look like it would be with anything mild. Upper air patterns is relatively calm so hopefully nothing too mild would be driven towards the UK
  7. <-- 6z 0z--> 6z GFS encouraging, with the low bringing wintry showers during Christmas. However the ridge looks like it is abount to get broken down as low pressure moves in, similar to last GFS run, just not as soon.
  8. I'm just letting everyone know that if we don't get enough snow this year we can move to the Alps - You can always rely on snow there πŸ˜”
  9. It looks like wind gusts along the line have only really been 35-45mph. Hopefully they increase soon 🀞
  10. My hopes were made high by the AROME and UKV... now they have dipped quite a lot πŸ˜”
  11. Already a gust to 70mph at Capel Cruig as the cold front passed, I know it's exposed but it is definitely a sign of things to come!
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