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Always Upsidedown

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  1. The good news is that the TAFs for Norwich & Stansted have now been amended with an increased likelihood of snow. Still not great and still likely to be wet and slushy but better than nothing. Still time for further amendments to come. Defo more positive now.
  2. No, its not the best. Also remember that prob 30 doesn't mean that there is a 30% probability! its a bit more binary than that. Prob 40 means that it is likely to happen, something like a 75% chance (ish) and prob 30 means it is not likely to happen, something less than 25% chance (ish). There is never a prob 50, 60 etc. Strange system isn't it and a can't imagine what sort of mind came up with it but strangely it actually works quite well. You may have known that already in which case I am sorry for teaching my grandmother to suck eggs. I always go with the TAFs on the day.
  3. Yes. But this is the thing Nick - PROB30 TEMPO 2920/2923 0500 +SHSN BKN004. Its a Prob 30 which means that the +SHSN will most likely not happen. Now if it was a prob 40 that would be a different matter. The tempo means that even if it did happen it would last no longer than half the period covered which would mean 1.5hrs at best. Hence my pessimism. Only prob 30 & no more than 1.5 hrs.
  4. Sorry but the Norwich TAF says that if you get any snow at all (which is unlikely) it will only be very brief, an hour at most.
  5. That would be nice but I suspect that Southend will get nothing and my neck of the woods (Stansted) will get next to nothing or nothing at all in terms of snow fall. That's based on the airport TAFs and they are seldom wrong I am afraid. Hoping that Thursday turns out to be a bit better because for me all hope of anything even half decent has gone for tonight.
  6. Latest TAF for Stansted (EGSS) now out and still not showing anything significant at all for the Stansted area. We will be lucky to get anything more than a bit of sleet or a slight covering of snow if the TAF is correct and it usually is. Same for Heathrow, Luton & Gatwick with nothing at all for southend. Not looking at all good I am afraid. Perhaps Thursday will yield something better.
  7. The Stansted airport TAF (EGSS) issued at 04:56 is saying that there is a low probability of snow for that area so its looking like I will be lucky to see anything at all. Booooooooo. The next TAF is due out any time now so hoping for a decent upgrade with fingers crossed. Good luck to the rest of you.
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