MATTWOLVES 3

Get in you beauty GFS..OK we have Heights nudging Greenland,but just check out where the whole vortex is! And my oh my it's only mid November...what's not ro like my cold hunting beauty's

I'm pretty sure a west based NAO doesn't necessarily spell doom at the earlier stage of Winter. I found out some interesting facts about the fluctuations of this phenomenon. It was apparently often positive from 1900s to the 20s,and from the late 1980s to present! Also worth noting is the because of the fact that the Arctic regions are heating faster than the more mid latitudes,its probable that more Blocked patterns will become increasing likely around the North Hemisphere! This is in turn leading to more and more erratic NAO. We had extreme positive values in December 2015 and February 2020,and very negative values in 2010 and March 2013! So it appears the behaviour of these events are going to become far more unpredictable for us lot in the near future.

Not a write off by any means Shaky...and tbh,you know the score...its far too far out to get remotely concerned about. Sweet dreams gang...I bet you all wake up in the middle of the night screaming and shouting....what was I saying you ask the missus?? GREENLAND HIGH...GREENLAND HIGH...OH MY OH MY HOW I LOVE THO GREENLAND HIGH

Here you go mate.

Amazing folks...what can I say about all of what we are witnessing this evening! Either this output is gonna be wrong,or some of the pros are gonna be licking there wounds in the naughty corner. Personally I think we are onto something regarding cold...The Northern Hemisphere looks primed for Blocking and a continuation of a waving and meandering jet cant be ruled out as we move further ahead. And as long as that continues we will be prone to Blocking setting up in the right places,especially if there is going to be a distinct lack of oomph in the Northern arm. Fantastic posts in here today from you lot...legends the lot of ya,and I'm pretty sure you bring a smile to the faces of many who read this forum. Ps..and a big welcome back to some of the old guard.

It should have been my little purple friend griff Scarface eat your heart out.

Good to have you back Feb...hope your well mate. 18z looks a gem....let's drop that purple blob right over us.

Good god...I can't take anymore...this looks an absolute peach...Shaky must be shaking at this

Guys I think this could be potentially better than the 12z runs.. Heights look a little stronger in towards Western Greenland ??

The 46 had its 10 minutes of fame,now its over to the GFS to take centre stage.. looking good potentially,and let's not forget how well the American model tends to do with NW heights.

Yeh,the 46 does lose its way beyond week 2...but for me that's were the caution needs to be applied,because there is always a bias to revert back to seasonal norms beyond a certain frame! Its just looking for some good early sypnotics in the shorter term to develop,and then to take it from there one step at a time.

Just to point out Ali that Marcos thoughts are of his own and not necessarily that of the mets,when he posts on twitter. Personally in this game,whether your Pro or amateur....events that occur at short notice can make even the best experts seem pretty clueless! Now let's continue the positive theme of tonight's output so far with the 18s..

The blocking signal remains as we enter December mate...I try not to go much further,as they can tend to lose there way! But tonight my friend the signal is our friend!

Look at those colours around Greenland in the earlier stages of the 46 run...forget reds,they're literally off the scale.

Check1 A good EC46 and we are close to cross model agreement. Check 2 We now need to get this lot into the 4/5 day period....(pending) Check 3..withold from telling the relatives..(completed) Check 4...By a Chester freezer to stall all the extra Bread loafs! getting close to checking Amazon) Check 5...2010 redux...(pending and awaiting further inspections) Check 6...is it normal for a 48 year old to feel this ecstatic..I seriously feel like Break dancing. Check 7...Surely to god this is the best Forum anywhere in Europe...the posts say it all... Case adjourned....the Jury is now out to cement the final details. It looks like we are all guilty of being Hard-core cold fanatics...and for that I'm sure we all admit guilt!

Come on guys we ain't had the crazy boom gif yet...is it finally coming home!

In all fairness mate,it usually takes them a few days before they jump aboard...They probably want to see it over numerous runs before commitment!. Which makes sense being a professional organisation! If this Ecm and then tonight's EC46 look good,we can perhaps expect a word change in the next day or so. So far so good gang...get ya ar@e into Greenland my son. Can I just say gang...let's not nit pick each and every run and frame...theres going to be differences for better or worse over so many runs during 24hr periods. Cool heads required. 168hrs..subtle movements of the High pressure,but at this range,that's going to happen numerous times a day! But for me,it's good to see where the core of the vortex is residing...and the bulk of it is well East of its usual home.

You guys have beat me to death with these latest 12z runs...so know point in me repeating them. So Borris reckons there's a Blizzard brewing out East...check out the graphs...he may be correct! It comes piling in towards the Eastern side, then others come in on the act also! Don't get me wrong,this is a very long way off for precipitation...but if the evolution is for a much colder theme...then the chances for snow only increase! Come on EC46...BE ON BOARD THE COLD EXPRESS! Be winter ready just incase! And for god sake,don't get telling the Family just yet!

We go from narnia to mowing the lawns and running around fields with a daffodil behind our ears...or that may just be me! Typical of the 18z to go down that route..not overly concerned by this run though...the 18z tends to be run with less data than the earlier runs! It's game on if we see this resume on the 0s in the morning,and it will be even a bigger bonus if the 46 on Monday goes down this route also! Personally I think we are heading in the right direction as we enter the beginning of the Winter season. It's gonna be a hell of a long road,so make sure you don't get running out of petrol!! Have you seen the bloody prices Great contributions from all you lot tonight...im learning so much from you guys and gals.. and its most definitely a pleasure,and also an honour ?

Do we have some support for the GFS op run? We sure do...and perhaps they're gathering momentum. Let's try and keep cool and level headed in here if things go down quicker than a submarine.. It's been a couple of years of misery and suffering for quite a few with the covid situation,not to mention the many lives lost due to NHS backlogs..Worth remembering when you feel the need to vent frustrations,over by and large a weather situation that will always be out of our control. Hopefully fun times ahead gang,and we all have one hell of a time in here during the run up to Xmas. Happy hunting.

Come on now guys this starting to get tyresome Seriously though...hopefully GFS leading the way for this much talked about pattern change.

As above at Ali...things looking much better today...some cracking ens also...just a little taster from me... I'm not in anyway advertising tyres here,but make sure your Winter tyre ready or at least have them checked...sounds more like an Health and safety post tbh

Its Sunday and it's grim...the 6z serves up some excitement There could be a channel runner coming to you southerners in time for silly season...no I don't mean mo Farrow...but some of the crazy stuff could be landing....Big word of caution...precipitation charts this far out are only for the dreamers amongst us...I for one live in a complete dreamworld...a parallel universe if you like... But good lord ain't it just great to see! Me love it long time. Hopefully changes are a foot come months end...we really do need a shakeup of this mundane pattern we have right now! Ps...I only hope the papers don't get hold of these charts Have a fab Sunday roast! Ps...please come back jon snow.. Feb blizzard and Mr Steve M.

Firstly perhaps the ECM ens hinting at a general cooling trend towards day 10! Secondly the GFS ens also throw out some cracker sypnotics. Things perhaps getting a move on the final 3rd of the month...beyond that anything goes....but I'm sure you will agree its going to be for some...an adventurous ride,for others a complete stressed up nightmare! So if your sitting in your butt's right now,get up the loft and get them Xmas lights down...let's make it come early this year... For me it's going to be a Winter of cold snaps...some of them quite telling..just my opinion! If I'm wrong you can roast my chestnuts on an open fire Have a splendid one. @swfc a very happy birthday...Health before everything else, everytime mate.. And just incase any of you have forgotten about how MJO cycles can alter the N Hemisphere...here is a reminder.. @Georgina Facebook should be renamed 2facedbook,that's all it's good for

I'm feeling a touch of trepidation around the thread today...here we are in mid November,and there seems to be an air of frustration....regarding where are our cold charts! Cold in November will bring nothing to suggest that the pattern will lock in for the duration of the Winter...infact it's more scientifically proven to bring the opposite! The point of interest for me will be where we stand come the final 3rd of December...even then that's know guarantee of how January will play out...but it certainly serves more purpose than the November scenario. A few tasty ens from the GFS,one of them a blinder..obviously we want to see these to start growing with more support further down the line! It's Friday...go on enjoy yourselves...take the missus out for fish and chips...forget the steak meal or better still get yourself ready to go out tonight and tell your missus get your coat! She will say...oh great are you taking me out! And you replie....no I'm turning the heating off Seriously folks have a great Weekwnd.