MATTWOLVES 3

Patience folks the ecm will deliver..keep the toys in prams for a while longer. Folks these ain't your everyday sypnotics and the models do struggle with these set ups..Things are gonna keep changing from to run...like you said to your missus on the big day....for better or worse!!! But we remain ina very encouraging position this evening.. Don't be making me get my El nino charts out again..I can't take it anymore

Amazing mate..amazing!!

High risk high reward in the making..some places could get a pasting.If we want significant widespread snow then we do need an attempt from fronts trying to dislodge that cold..This could be fun. And remember folks the drivers still favour cold don't be losing your heads at the first sign of a warm up. And yeh I can hold my breath for a long time.

Looks the same to me with ntlys and snow showers...then cold weather the most likely with continued risk of snow and ice..gonna be fun when weather systems attempt to push in. But like you say the media get hold of this and go mad and the end result is the met trying to be a tad Conservative! It's there necks on the line don't forget.

OK folks things are shaping up very nicely indeed. Think El Nino..think background drivers...think we ain't just in the game we are winning the game! I know some try to pattern match with past failures.. but if we end up with a flat zonal pattern with all these favourable drivers we wouldn't be just unlucky but CURSED!

We are in unchartered territory I feel..i would say how at this range the models will nearly always revert back to a climatology normal,reform the PV and put it back in its natural home. And they will do this more with a pattern we have now and are struggling with a desired solution. Background drivers could well be giving the pattern another kick at this point also! Obviously we don't want to be seeing a strong pv towards the NW at this stage as it can literally rule the roost and override other forcers! But going on what I'm seeing currently and those met updates I've got a feeling the pv could be remaining weak for the duration. Significant cold clustering out towards mid month on the ens

You know something mate..your new to this forum,and I already like your style

You can't judge a science on previous failures! And it's usually folks saying it's all 10 days away! This time it's within 6 or 7 days.. The output is remaining steadfast and has had only a couple of minor wobbles..usually when a wobble comes,the big downgrades come. Not this time.. we are looking as solid as I've seen for a long long time. @if @terrier is onboard for this we could be looking at the mother of all freezes

I'm giving you the week off work folks..tell ya boss there's just to much dam excitement in the models for you to be able to work with a clear head...you know what I mean!

I'll drop a quick post in now everyone's gone to bed.. I thought the output would improve today as its going through its daily wobbles and struggling with the NH sypnotics. But the trend is currently growing for colder conditions then potentially much colder conditions. GEM..solid throughout and remains steadfast..if this cold spell comes off then gem deserves a gold medal. UKMO vast improvement today and a better build of heights around day 6 and 7. ECM..Not covered itself in much glory for the so called best model..really is struggling with any kind of heights too the North. An improvement from the model this evening though. Rrrr...GFS the king of being first to spot a trend before ditching it,coming back onboard...ditching it again...before thinking what the hell let's go crazy and bring back 63. A very positive met update again with colder being the most likely outcome moving forward.. instabilities in the mix with a ntlys bringing snow showers before an attempt from Atlantic systems to dislodge the cold bringing a risk of substantial snow.! If we can get this cold entrenched it won't be shifted that easy...and there's not a great deal of oomph from the West currently. Background drivers could be about to wane before improving again later this month,so entrenched surface cold being in place would be a big bonus! A current warming of the strat would help the situation as we wait for another kick from the mjo!. My final thoughts are we could be looking at wintry potential over the next 2 months. I think it looks good. Gr8 posts on here by so many today..im proud of ya gang! Your a gr8 bunch. Onwards and upwards.

I had a feeling the upgrades would start coming..GEM remains very confident. Come on folks let's up the ante...a dreary Sunday is hotting up.

Mogreps 6z pretty solid gang.

Gfs 6z certainly not an outlier out too mid month. Hey folks it's Sunday...only one thing for it. ..yehhhhhh boyyyyyyyeeeee!!!

Clear and backwards trend? 1..met update still very positive. 2. Some good op runs throughout the day and still good ens support. 3. Mogreps trending colder again. 4. Still.good anomolies. 5. Positive noaa update. 6. NWP chops and changes on regular basis when it comes to this kind of set up. 7.minor but significant warming of the strat currently underway which will cause yet more model headaches. 8. The UK has had numerous severe cold snaps over the years..yes more Intense many years ago but cold patterns come in cycles...ie 2009 then 2010...then 2013..then 2018..Yet far to many base previous failures as the benchmark in saying it won't come off cause it rarely does.. weather is a science not something that develops out of good or bad luck and a hunch. STILL LOTS TO BE POSITIVE ABOUT!

I don't think some of you will ever be happy...even if the met said 63 in the making..some would still get concerned over a gfs 12z run..this output is better than we've seen for many years...do you want me to come round all your houses and sugar-coat it with sugar and cream! Or do you want a spanky bum bum!

Firstly as I pointed out to Brain on twitter there's a lot of scatter in those ens...also the gfs 6z ens have trended colder along with mogreps..so that's good. Ohh..this scenario of frontal systems pushing in from the SW is certainly on the agenda as the met highlight it with the current update.. significant snowfall risk..obviously how far North any milder air gets and for how long is the next big question! But an 80s style event would suite me fine!

And it doesn't take much for you to get them little doubts mate. Hey we are going to see the models and especially the ops throwing out some mixed signals from time to time...its never really possible for the output to keep improving run by run. And keep in mind the ongoing strat warming is gonna give models another potentially big headache in the days ahead. So much to feel positive about good man. The only time I get concerned is when folks start saying..massive 12s coming up..and even more concerned when it's...massive Exeter update coming up.

Mogreps has seen the light and is saying..hey folks let's go back down And again with the current warming of the strat...remember the lag time for the models to factor this in..Next 2 or 3 weeks could become very spicy.

Hemisphericaly speaking I'm not gonna complain regarding the ext ecm ens..The NH looks completely out of kilter on many of them..In all honesty I can't remember the last time I viewed a strat and pv like this in January! There are gonna be little ups and downs..some days upgrade the next a downgrade followed by a holding pattern,to then upgrade again. Bloody hard work going through all of these 50 members on me phone though..Good job I had some assistance from me pet's bless em.

The block still looks the form horse..now if it remains in the right place then Winter continues to bring promise

Not concerned about ecm at all..the NH looks good and the ops are just feeling about. Mogreps 12s and I sense those temps are about to drop again..take a look at Norwich and you can see a more dramatic fall away..perhaps winds swinging more Netly!

Quick one from me while the 12s get ready..I think things are moving into place slowly but surely.. Next week obviously colder with Frost.. then hints of less cold for a short time..which is hinted at by mogreps 6z ens..we then see the clusters start to head down again which probably hints at the ntly...we also have a current strat warming which won't be picked out by the models just yet...this could serve too boost the blocking forces..keep in mind El Nino winter is very often backloaded and ENSO is also favourable. And just to say that met have updated the 2nd part of forecast to now include risk of potentially big snow events as systems try to push in from the West or South West..with cold air being in place. There's a hell of a lot going on..some heads may fall off in the process but I urge you to remain positive and keep a cool head...a cool head will deal with this so much better. Enjoy the experience folks. OK it wasn't a quick one from me..I got carried away

We have not really been discussing severe cold and snow next week though,it was more of an indicator for towards mid month. And with this minor warming now taking place we could end up in a very good place if things land right. Yes next week colder with frosts and mainly dry...beyond this it COULD turn much colder. There's alot going on. And in all honesty I've never ever heard Liam talk up significant cold even in 2018...infact I remember the BBC at the time saying this...yes turning colder..but a very dry colder! Things change very quickly. Quick one on mogreps solid agreement for that early cold...but look at the end of the run with a little hint of the runs wanting to go colder again.. petty we can't see them out to day 10! I think they will gradually be colder again.

Let the world's best ramper calm the nerves a tad...keep in mind the warming of the strat won't even be factored into the NWP right now. We are inching to a better place...op runs will throw there toys out of the pram once in a while..the ens remain steadfast!

While the gfs has its daily wobbling routine I bring you the ec ens and yes the outlook is promising..These det runs will get itchy feet from time to time and will need to turn to there bigger more experienced brothers and sisters for a little guidance! There's a simplistic way of putting things.