[Model Output Discussion - Spring Has Sprung]

Pv is taking a kick in the groin here folks..yet again and it's stronger than last night. Mean has really tanked into negative territory tonight.

[Model Output Discussion - Spring Has Sprung]

Gfs is like don't bother let's get spring in. But look ECM and it's a different story. Cyclonic episodes wrapped in cold air at times and if you fast forward to day 10,we have some serious cold over Greenland..follow the isobars and we are dragging that down..yes there will be moderation of the flow,but I tell you what I wouldn't be suprised to see the met being busy in the next week or so with snow cropping up for those who didn't expect it,and a fair bit of snow for areas further NW and with elevation. 

So perhaps we still have a few more dramas to play out before all is said and done..Will be keen to see if tonight's zonal winds keep with the trend for the strat to be hit again come early March.

[Model Output Discussion - Spring Has Sprung]

Hey folks I'm sure many of you have given up the ghost by now,and that's understandable! I've never seen a winter where the NWP as been so poor regards to blocking...I've probably lost my cool at times with it and slandered the teleconnections experts which I would like to apologise for! Basically it's been a nightmare from all the data to nail this down,and it's certainly not the fault of the experts who bring those really insightful and cool background driver updates. 

It appears a few spanners have been thrown into the works this winter,firstly perhaps El nino was a little to strong and a as a result we ended up with vast warming of some of the oceans which helped to inflate those iberian Heights...perhaps even the tongs eruption had an affect on the cooling of the stratosphere! There's multiple variables we can blame here and its a difficult post mortem tbh. The Canadian warming I feel also seemed to alter the structure of the PV and it acted up ever since..warmings from the bottom up etc.

Is it too late to save what's left of winter? Well tbh I'm old school and base everything on the equinox and say winter does not end till 21st March...so basically we have a very brief reversal die in the next couple of days before a quick uptick. Will it be long enough to reverse us to an Estly? Will it impact the trop? Many say know it won't and some have pointed out the wave acteas not strong enough. But let's be honest here the strat had been a forecasters nightmare this winter so don't be suprised to see more fun and games.

Last nights zonal winds also hint at yet another hit of the strat by early March,but we need to tread cautiously as these zonal wind forecats have left alot to be desired this season. What I will say I'd I'm noticing alot of ensembles now pointing to Ural blocking,a gr8 wave 2 precursor which makes me belive the strat may tumble quite abruptly rather than a customary slow breakdown at this time of the year..this could put us in the game for a cold and blocked 3nd part of March! Is it to late though? Well there's a lot of cold bottled up over the Arctic so a sudden breakdown could put us in the game. Remember last March! Some had a foot of snow! 

And I would like to finish by saying I wish you all well and have greatest respect for many of you..I've currently been spending a lot of time on X just to grow my followers.. its the same old me though..serious forecasts injected with a lot of humour! And on a sad note its been over 2 months now since my dad passed away,his ashes are now with us and there's not a day goes by when I don't feel bloody awful about his demise. To see it was shocking and will haunt me forever. I only hope he's ina better place now.

Go on gang have one last chase...its along time till next November! I wouldn't long drawn out severe cold...but I feel snow chances will crop up next month.

Loves ya brothers and sisters.. stay well and enjoy life everyday as its a long time gone!

[Model Output Discussion - Spring Has Sprung]

How's about a bit of the pink stuff folks..you know what I mean

[Model Output Discussion - Spring Has Sprung]

Again I'm gobsmacked on here..far to many posts are becoming emotional based and that will cloud one's judgement! The ECM run appears to open doors further into the run and keep in mind this is beyond a week out and will be subject to much variation..this pattern could easily end up a couple hundred miles South! There's positives with the current mjo getting close to 8..the met update holds lots of promise,last nights 46 shows heaps of promise..yet we get a post of its all over! Basically frustration from not seeing the run you wanted to see...so you get emotional have a tantrum and make the wrong kind of calls! That's what happens when you get to attached to every op run..

This is before even the 50 ens have run and loads more data! Some need to think before hitting the submit button as it can make an adult appear like a child with ott responses to model output..take a deep breath look at other factors and data before committing oneself to losing your patience.

Personally I'm pleased with the direction of travel..it seems to be those who are far South and SE based who are gonna lose there cool over the coming days more than anyone. Big 46 anomolies coming up...I'm confident.

 

 

 

[Model Output Discussion - Spring Has Sprung]

The iberian Heights are draining away now we have the scope to pull this cold air south..if you think this is a bad run then I'm bemused tbh

[Model Output Discussion - Spring Has Sprung]

Personally I think theres plenty of ec ens that are bringing about a much more favourable placement of the pv, and the profile up above looks much more primed too me.. I actually thought the gfs 12z ens were OK to but it seems you can't please everyone. For me we are becoming licked and loaded for winter to make a return towards end of week 1 Feb.. or thereabouts!

[Model Output Discussion - Spring Has Sprung]

Boom there it is folks...

[Model Output Discussion - Spring Has Sprung]

@Met4Cast well hang on a sec..you was bigging the situation up for quite some time just the other week.Now your saying we are in trouble! There is a greater degree of colder members today which surely is a good point! And background forcing does not guarantee the goods all the time for everyone...Just look back at the late Nov early Dec cold snap that came on the back of no forcing whatsoever. Also the met mention the possibility of colder conditions...it may have been pushed back but its still there.

[Model Output Discussion - Spring Has Sprung]

@bluearmy  Nick I thought the ecm ens look better than what I've seen for some time,yet some are not really convinced! For me weve taken a slight step forward today rather than the usual 2 steps back.

I've got to be honest I'm finding this new layout rather strange..all I'm seeing is a load of @ this and that  

[Model Output Discussion - Spring Has Sprung]

Some very interesting ensembles coming out from the 12z...at last some excitement 

[Model Output Discussion - Spring Has Sprung]

The options remain on the table folks..yes the op was poor but there is now a fair amount of colder members in the pack.

[Model Output Discussion - Spring Has Sprung]

18 minutes ago, ANYWEATHER said:

Don't worry, although winter weather has gone to hibernation mode for the uk at the moment , by March and April ,it will be waking up ,and when we are ready for Spring , Winter will be back ,when we don't want it !

Rrr but many a cold chaser on here will most definitely take it in March,as March can be quite potent,April not so much...but if most of Feb turned out mild and the very end of Feb into March went baltic...many myself included would be seriously happy.

Some ens show where we could still end up..and I for one are in full winter mode for at least 6 more weeks.

[Model Output Discussion - Cold spell ending - what next?]

Just now, RainAllNight said:

I think you've nailed it there

I sometimes wonder if it would be better as it was in the old days..no social media..no wealth of access to model data and making do with the countryfile forecasts,and I tell you what back in the day many of these forecasts would nail it...even more so than the greater degree of information we have now.

Ñext year I'm returning to the old school when I was 8...getting a picture of the UK from an old atlas,cutting some cardboard weather symbols and drawing my own isobars...yeh it's old fashioned but it seemed to work a treat..Try it folks it definitely eases the stress of it all

[Model Output Discussion - Cold spell ending - what next?]

Hey folks I viewed that 6z op run and thought no hope! Looks like the ens had other ideas.

All aboard the Feb express anyone??

[Model Output Discussion - Cold spell ending - what next?]

Gang..before the thread descends into a debate over who got it wrong and the fact the obituaries are coming in already and before February as even started...i would like to say firstly.

1.GFS is shambolic..one run there is no pv left as its in tatters..now the current run a couple of hours later has a strong PV sat over Greenland. Viewing it at range should come with a Health warning.

2. Talk of mjo failing is a tad premature as this as not occurred yet,and could still go favourable in the days ahead.

3.The met still go with the colder theme next month and I don't feel they will be changing the write up today.

4. Do background drivers that hold promise mean we will be getting the holy grail of winter sypnotics? No they do not..This cold snap started as a couple of cold days the other week before warming up by the weekend and then going cold again for 5 days last week! So about 7 or 8 cold days..and tbh nothing special away from the far North!

5.The cold snap around early December was equally as good on the back of no forcing and positive drivers whatsoever.

6. We have now entered the unknown.the Twilight Zone if you may,which means other new little variables are entering the equation and possibly squandering positive drivers..Next year we could be looking at awful teleconnections but other little variables may crop up and put us in a better position than this year!

7. Yes I do think there's some who will talk the talk and big up how good things look this winter,and when it all goes wrong they will quickly disappear till next year and give no insight in to why they think it went wrong! If I make a forecast and get it wrong I will hold my hands up and basically go again.. if you give me criticism I can take it and I will be ready to roll again.Hey even the best pros get it wrong and I feel this is gonna set a theme of many many more getting it wrong as we move further down the line.

8.And finally I feel the interest lies around mid month and beyond..Dont be foolhardy and write a whole month off...we have seen before that mother nature considers our predictions,laughs at them and goes on to do her own things!

To sum up i would say we are close to the last chance saloon.but everytime we give in hope or make a long range prediction we get it wrong! So this time when we expect nothing we will once again most likely be proven wrong again.

Don't give in hope,as in this world today hope is all we've got.

Take care you lot.

[Model Output Discussion - Cold spell ending - what next?]

Next chase and I'm all over it like a cheap suit...gfs 0z ens really spark the interest here folks.

[Model Output Discussion - Cold spell ending - what next?]

For me I would say 7 or 8 day mild spell before more settled further South bringing back some colder perhaps frosty nights..the possibilities being thrown up by gfs and now gem has been there for a fair few runs now,so it's deserves respect. Plenty of ensembles are also siding with it.

Chase no3? No problem...im only just warming up...you ain't seen nothing yet

[Model Output Discussion - Cold spell ending - what next?]

Some absolute crackers from the 12z ens beyond week 2...we could be sensing a pattern change..

Who's up for it? I will get the ball rolling...let's see where this one takes us..im very optimistic for February folks.

Come onnnn...

[Model Output Discussion - Cold spell ending - what next?]

Correct me if I'm wrong but those build of heights can migrate from the south and build over scandy..The gfs has hinted at this for half a dozen runs now..is it out of the question? Well check the met update to see greater chance if estly winds and there's your answer. For someone to come on here and start saying it's not scientifically possible is tripe..its not scientifically possible to say there a 20% chance of this then an hour later a 30% or back to 15% of this that and the other scenarios!

Like I said numerous runs toy with the idea of a build of heights through into scandy and that's a positive as we all know how savvy gfs is with detecting early signals.. let's see if ecm and gem towards backend of week or weekend start going down this route also.

[Model discussion highlights]

9 minutes ago, Bricriu said:

 

 

Very disappointing. A high in situ that just eats  up more of winter. Still it's better  than a zonal onslaught. 

Forecasting a block is one thing but predicting where its sets up shop in 2 or 3 weeks is a whole different ball game. The ec regimes do highlight a blocking probability,the met also bring this up,and the fact they mention North or East winds show there's a chance of a favourable positioning. Also worth looking at the JMA and recent glosea modles to also see how blocking is currently a form horse. EC will probably drop that idea tomorrow before planting it slap bang over Greenland the day after..The signs I feel are about to improve.

Original post: https://community.netweather.tv/topic/99760-model-output-discussion-colder-but-how-cold-and-for-how-long/?do=findComment&comment=5013565

[Model Output Discussion - Colder but how cold and for how long?]

9 minutes ago, Bricriu said:

 

 

Very disappointing. A high in situ that just eats  up more of winter. Still it's better  than a zonal onslaught. 

Forecasting a block is one thing but predicting where its sets up shop in 2 or 3 weeks is a whole different ball game. The ec regimes do highlight a blocking probability,the met also bring this up,and the fact they mention North or East winds show there's a chance of a favourable positioning. Also worth looking at the JMA and recent glosea modles to also see how blocking is currently a form horse. EC will probably drop that idea tomorrow before planting it slap bang over Greenland the day after..The signs I feel are about to improve.

[Model Output Discussion - Colder but how cold and for how long?]

Zonal winds look a tad weak to me and the blocking signal remains...where it sets up shop is yet to be decided.

[Model Output Discussion - Colder but how cold and for how long?]

Notice the dip back on ens from the mogreps towards backend of weekend here..dont be ruling out something wintry with the 1st push of Atlantic systems..thats worth keeping tabs on. 

Output is never set in stone,it can flip at the drop of an hat..keep that in mind and your days will be a little less stressed.

[Model Output Discussion - Colder but how cold and for how long?]

Hints from the 6z ens of something colder towards months end..im confident the output will begin to improve towards the weekend. Chase no3 is fully within my sights now folks.

Join me for another more ups and downs than a UK B road ride!