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Everything posted by Mattwolves

  1. How can the writing be on the wall for a time span of around 7 weeks.... From now through till the end of December!! I can't think of a model in the world that can give a true reflection of conditions beyond 7-10 day's, let alone.... 7-10 weeks! If my memory serves me correct, this time last year, the picture being painted was for largely cold and blocked scenarios.... And Im pretty sure that December came out as an above average month! I wouldn't be at all surprised if the pattern we are seeing now persists into the next month!! There is a lot to play for.... Write a month off that is 3 weeks from starting at your peril...
  2. ECM mean remains on the cold side for much of the period... Perhaps a plunge of much colder air into more N/NE parts of Europe later, as highlighted on the NH profile... One to watch perhaps. And hey presto.... Just has I thought.... The op was indeed on the colder side of the pack.... We see slight hints of an upturn in temps come day 10 from the mean..... All along way off though, and much water to flow under the bridge just yet.... Like we haven't had enough of it already!
  3. A much better ECM op from the 12s....quite a bit of entrenched cold air in place.... Now let's see where it sits within the ens!! The op was a warm outlier this morning... Is it gonna be a cold outlier this evening!! Stay tuned for more unfolding dramas this evening..... In the events from hell...... We like to Call.... WINTER!
  4. There seems to be a bit of concern in here right now! Yes there is to much rain in the forecast! But a little reminder that we are still not at mid November just yet! I'm still liking the NH profile from GFS, UKMO and GEM, the UK remains on the cold side, and when you look at large portions of Central Europe, and how mild they are, we can't really complain. Yes it could be a worry if significant cold is going to be cut off from the East moving forward! But tbh that's just to far away to be concerned with. On the other hand, if this pattern continues further into December, with the jet digging south.... Colder air from the NW..... sliders delight!! Just imagine a winter setting up this way throughout..... Colder air from a PM source bringing sliders.... While large chunks of Europe remain mild!!! I don't think there coldies would like that!!! But my god... Its a possibility.
  5. The ensembles and data this morning look rather confused if you ask me. The ECM op becomes warmer, while the mean remains chilly. We're as the GFS op goes really cold, both these scenarios were somewhat outliers..... The mean does remain chilly though. The models do not have a handle on the upcoming events right now.... And in my opinion the long range models also have the same problem moving ahead!!! Interesting times ahead! Big respect to all our heroes, both past and present.... Always in our thoughts.. Enjoy your days folks.
  6. Great and informative posts by you lot today guys, unfortunately my like button has self destructed! The GFS 12z and the ECM 12z op was a little on the progressive side with the cold.... The mean does remain on the cold side, but nothing on the brutal side. But hey ho.. Its still barely mid November, and we can't expect miracles just yet.... All in all the signs still remain positive moving forward, and its a fairly messed up NH profile.... Anyway us Wolverhampton folks are all ecstatic today after earlier events... If you get what I mean! All in all I feel it still looks pretty good moving forward.... I'm dreaming of a white Xmas day.... Or any day from now, come to mention it.... Have a Gr8 evening folks and chill...
  7. A decent day on the models again, ECM 12Z keeps us pretty much on the cold side.. The op once again was on the colder side, but overall a slight improvement from the mean. My god i can't remember the last time things remained on the cold side for a lengthy period. 3 or 4 more weeks of this, and perhaps we can start froffing at the mouth! Other than that enjoy yourselves a nice weekend beer!! Go on folks... You deserve it... Model watching can be stressful and thirsty work, if ya get me drift...
  8. Pretty much as you were with the GFS 6z ensembles. In fact most of them keep the UK cold! There are also some crackers thrown in!! Its going to be very interesting to see if those long range models hold firm with the milder Wstly theme for December! If next month does decide to keep with the November theme, then it will gradually become that bit colder with time. These slider events would bring an increase in the risk of wintryness! Not worth getting to hung up on events over 3 weeks away though just yet. But me has a sneaky feeling that these models me be wide of the mark, or even start back tracking with time! We will see. So far though, I'm liking the output, and the general direction of travel. So like I said, some encouraging ensembles, and quite a cold op from the ECM! It was actually below the mean, but these colder runs do keep getting flagged up. Enjoy your days if you can folks.
  9. Pretty amazing ECM folks... While the UK, France and Spain Look rather chilly, a good chunk of Central and Northern Europe warms up!!! Don't feel to hard done to folks.... We are stealing all there cold... Its about time we got something back...
  10. The 12z ECM mean remains on the cold side! If anything there seems to be more in the way of colder runs than last night.. Long may this colder theme continue. Until the next run....cheers gang....
  11. Quite a set of chillier ensembles from the GFS 6Z, a few stonkers in there also. Some even showing heights over Greenland and scandy!! Now that would be every coldies ideal Xmas present!! Much water to flow under the bridge just yet! I still feel that perhaps we are moving away from that Wstly dominated December though! Perhaps colder spells will also be just as prevalent. Could be worse peeps.... A hell of alot worse.
  12. Very much as you were with the ECM mean! Very similar to the 0Z,still plenty of runs approaching - 5c line. Basically it remains chilly for the next 10 day's, and I've noticed the boys from Exeter have pulled away from that much milder theme moving forward, so the signs could be about to look up for a change. In the words of that great x BBC 1 forecaster Dan Corbett.... That's ya weather for now... Legend!
  13. My apologies Feb, I thought you was saying the op was bad, and the ensembles would be rubbish because of it... Dohhh, when now I realise you meant there was update issues... Sorry mate
  14. Feb, your gonna need stress medication mate come the beginning of winter! Every GFS op run is different to the next one... Surely not worth getting to hung up over this early mate. The 6z ensembles not even been done yet. Looking at the 0Z ensembles from both GFS and ECM, we still have a fair few colder options on the table. Which considering its only early November, is still decent. If we are expecting siberian blast in the heart of winter... We will probably be disappointed!! If we are expecting it this early.... We will most definitely be disappointed. Roll on the 12s....early days and all that.... Still looking at least seasonal and that's better than this time last year.
  15. Hey si, chin up mate, I no all about hernia problems, had my fair share. Best wishes to the missus, hope she is well soon mate. Regarding the 18z, I think Feb just pointed out about some decent Estly, and Indeed there are a few! Not to hung up over the pub run, especially when it's been on the lash all night... Its head will be more sober come the 0Z run Still some decent ensembles though and a very good ECM, so overall not a bad day...
  16. Pardon me for ramping..... But get in there you beauty!! The ECM mean is colder than last night.... I will take that, and say over to you Mr GFS.
  17. Read it and weep folks... Its not a bad ECM mean tonight, we remain quite chilly, and the mean is lower than the op was.... Ohhhhh yehhhhh... Gonna have to calm down now, as I'm nearly out of allocated posts.... A very good evening good peeps...
  18. Last weeks EC46 may have been poor Feb!!! But the EC46 was poor for the whole of last winter... So much so... That I decided to save the money I was paying to view it!!! I've saved that much now... I can afford a skiing holiday in the alps!!! Joking aside... I feel there could be a big turnaround in the coming weeks from these long range models.... There is a lot of confusion and contradiction going on with some of them presently....
  19. Yes Pete, the op was most definitely on the colder side of things. Don't no what to make of the ECM, high pressure to the West and East of us, but not much in the way of cold air to tap into, I think it must be having one of its evening happy hour moments! But without wanting to sound cold bias.... God forbid me of all people doing that!! I do like the GEM 12Z tonight... Lovely little Estly with a nice bit of cold pool to boot.
  20. Just a little bit of info for those of you who don't know!! The weather online seasonal was updated the other day, and points to a Wstly dominated December with rain at times. The January update states wintry at times, with a snow risk moving south at times!! Nae bad, all be it a long way off.
  21. The op from the ECM mean was a little on the colder side... The mean just under 0C...but more positively there are a fair amount of runs nudging that - 5 mark.... So we keep with the colder theme moving forward.... Ps.... Some absolutely brill posts in here today, just when you think you can't learn anymore, you get proven wrong time and time again. Enjoy the rest of your evenings..
  22. Some cracking 12z ensembles.... If anything the mean is a tad lower than the 6z! P5 was a thing of beauty, plenty of other cold runs to, but this one literally brings an early Beast from the East.. - 8c widely with colder air not to far away... Hope this trend continues, or that we don't peak to early!!!! Nahhhhhh... Happy days.
  23. Remarkable Mike... And what a great picture of 2 huge feet about to either walk all over us, or kick us to United Kingdom come, if you pardon the pun... Great vortex separation all the same.
  24. The place is buzzing for the new November thread, and for good reason!! Some good output being thrown out. Plenty of cold and colder ensembles. Let's hope the 6z op and control are onto something, they were going very cold... Let's keep this AO down... All good so far, and so early in the season... Kind of reminds ya of 2010....new decade could signal a new wave of cold... Well that's my hope.
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