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Mattwolves

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Mattwolves last won the day on October 22

Mattwolves had the most liked content!

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  • Gender
    Male
  • Location
    Sedgley
  • Interests
    Weights. Pyro, sports betting, especially football, and I'm a bit of a home dj, my styles being hardcore, techno, etc. Also love me cars and doing them up, especially classic MGs
  • Weather Preferences
    Summer heatwaves and electrical storms, and fidgid Arctic type winters

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  1. I'm glad I left the dirty work for you Karl, to post those horrid ECM means charts but tbh they have been hinting at it for some time!! And a little message for @Mike Poole you say your getting exhausted with this model watching and that you still haven't witnessed a snowflake yet!!! The problem is Mike dear man, we are hunting for the perfect set up, far to early these days!! November extremes of snow and cold is as rare as a pig in a fur coat. We have several more months of this just yet, and I'm running low on prozac already!! Let's just sit back and enjoy the ride. Hoping things improve shorty as you were with the ECM mean... Pretty dam ordinary.
  2. Cheer up fellow cold hunters, very early days just yet.... Forget 2010 repeat for December!! Let's focus on an82 or 87/88 type freeze. To be honest the ECM mean does come down, at is definitely better than last nights affair. Looking at the extended ens, I feel we have perhaps more of a pressure build!! And with a mean around 0-1C, perhaps some chillier conditions with night frosts the order of the day.... Pretty good seasonal conditions if that comes off!! I say this because the mean is trending towards a 1010mb by months end! All in all, it's just another offish day in the mad world of model watching for the UK... Things could be looking a whole lot better this time next week!! Or worse, whatever floats ya boats... Enjoy the rest of your evenings.
  3. Not a very good ECM mean tonight, a definite trend to milder temps next week!! But after just viewing the extended 14 day ensembles... We do see a gradual decline again beyond day 10...the mean perhaps back down to close to 0C..also a fair amount of spread, with quite a few members going below freezing!!! Long way off, but perhaps only a briefer milder interlude.
  4. To late mate... I already did the weekly shop at Sainsburys!! At them prices, I wish I would have left it to Iceland now! Ecm mean not quite promoting those heights towards Greenland just yet!! The mean perhaps looking a little underwhelming!! Hopefully things will begin to look much more exciting after the election!! Enjoy your weekends good folks..
  5. Excellent short term summary and long term prognosis from all of you guys again today. Makes such miserable wet days like today that bit more bearable. The mid term ECM mean shows a milder theme, but like you guys have pointed out, the longer term shows much promise... Could we grasp those Greenland highs a bit further down the road!! I'm hopefully, that perhaps the upcoming milder spell could be the precursor to some sustained cold... That's the hope, and its plausible!!! The GFS ensembles also showing some promise, with a few Estlys to boot.... Onwards and upwards, the December countdown continues..
  6. Well folks the GFS ensembles are a shambles.... The op goes from cold, to ridiculous warmth come the end of the run... The UKMO shows hope, hopefully the ECM mean will bring some improvements.... But feast ya eyes on the good old CFS.... get ya Xmas shopping done early, get ya family round early.... Stock up..... Its looking like a very cold and potentially snowy Christmas..... Let it snow, let it snow, let it snow.... Or perhaps I'm dreaming of a!!!..... Far fetched I no, but anythings possible.
  7. I'm liking the 12z ensembles... We have a fair few cold ones and again it's being highlighted that there is a large cold pool potentially building to the NE. Just imagine an early SSW with it falling in the right place this time!! Froffing at the chops just thinking about it... I'm liking these signs, I maybe wide of the mark, but I feel this year could be delevering early!!
  8. Brilliant post from s4lancia earlier, worthy of a mention in the queen's honours list this year. No point me getting drawn into a will it won't it debate, or its looking bad scenario... Cause I never win while the 6z is running, and tbh I don't have much time for it anyway!! I will give a little mention to the 0Z...there are quite a few runs keeping us relatively cold, and with a cold pool to the NE tantalisingly close!!! The mean also remained on the cool side. Its not a bad set up still if you ask me..... Bar the awful rainfall amounts....
  9. How can the writing be on the wall for a time span of around 7 weeks.... From now through till the end of December!! I can't think of a model in the world that can give a true reflection of conditions beyond 7-10 day's, let alone.... 7-10 weeks! If my memory serves me correct, this time last year, the picture being painted was for largely cold and blocked scenarios.... And Im pretty sure that December came out as an above average month! I wouldn't be at all surprised if the pattern we are seeing now persists into the next month!! There is a lot to play for.... Write a month off that is 3 weeks from starting at your peril...
  10. ECM mean remains on the cold side for much of the period... Perhaps a plunge of much colder air into more N/NE parts of Europe later, as highlighted on the NH profile... One to watch perhaps. And hey presto.... Just has I thought.... The op was indeed on the colder side of the pack.... We see slight hints of an upturn in temps come day 10 from the mean..... All along way off though, and much water to flow under the bridge just yet.... Like we haven't had enough of it already!
  11. A much better ECM op from the 12s....quite a bit of entrenched cold air in place.... Now let's see where it sits within the ens!! The op was a warm outlier this morning... Is it gonna be a cold outlier this evening!! Stay tuned for more unfolding dramas this evening..... In the events from hell...... We like to Call.... WINTER!
  12. There seems to be a bit of concern in here right now! Yes there is to much rain in the forecast! But a little reminder that we are still not at mid November just yet! I'm still liking the NH profile from GFS, UKMO and GEM, the UK remains on the cold side, and when you look at large portions of Central Europe, and how mild they are, we can't really complain. Yes it could be a worry if significant cold is going to be cut off from the East moving forward! But tbh that's just to far away to be concerned with. On the other hand, if this pattern continues further into December, with the jet digging south.... Colder air from the NW..... sliders delight!! Just imagine a winter setting up this way throughout..... Colder air from a PM source bringing sliders.... While large chunks of Europe remain mild!!! I don't think there coldies would like that!!! But my god... Its a possibility.
  13. The ensembles and data this morning look rather confused if you ask me. The ECM op becomes warmer, while the mean remains chilly. We're as the GFS op goes really cold, both these scenarios were somewhat outliers..... The mean does remain chilly though. The models do not have a handle on the upcoming events right now.... And in my opinion the long range models also have the same problem moving ahead!!! Interesting times ahead! Big respect to all our heroes, both past and present.... Always in our thoughts.. Enjoy your days folks.
  14. Great and informative posts by you lot today guys, unfortunately my like button has self destructed! The GFS 12z and the ECM 12z op was a little on the progressive side with the cold.... The mean does remain on the cold side, but nothing on the brutal side. But hey ho.. Its still barely mid November, and we can't expect miracles just yet.... All in all the signs still remain positive moving forward, and its a fairly messed up NH profile.... Anyway us Wolverhampton folks are all ecstatic today after earlier events... If you get what I mean! All in all I feel it still looks pretty good moving forward.... I'm dreaming of a white Xmas day.... Or any day from now, come to mention it.... Have a Gr8 evening folks and chill...
  15. A decent day on the models again, ECM 12Z keeps us pretty much on the cold side.. The op once again was on the colder side, but overall a slight improvement from the mean. My god i can't remember the last time things remained on the cold side for a lengthy period. 3 or 4 more weeks of this, and perhaps we can start froffing at the mouth! Other than that enjoy yourselves a nice weekend beer!! Go on folks... You deserve it... Model watching can be stressful and thirsty work, if ya get me drift...
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