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BrickFielder

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BrickFielder last won the day on July 11 2010

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About BrickFielder

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    Coventry,Warwickshire
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    Computers, Photography, Painting and Weather

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  1. Still very tricky to forecast and UK could miss out on storms completely. Not much change in the general scenario except perhaps a slight steepening of the angle of the cold front with a change of steering winds likely to push the plume towards the UK. Developments over France today are key with storms over northern France late evening being key as to whether the UK sees storms. Different models show slightly different areas for rainfall but generally speaking the best moisture looks to be south east of the Isle of Wight to East Anglia. Forecast SkewT for
  2. It is still not exactly clear what will happen with regards to Storms, but it is starting to look like two different storm potentials. One around 9pm to Midnight Wednesday for the very far south east and perhaps early hours of Thursday for the south, midlands running up to parts of the north west. Neither scenario looks like being surface based so more electrical than wet. There may be a point across the midlands around 8am where storms change to surface based at the leading edge of storms. Forecast SkewT's show very little convective energy so have to assume stor
  3. At First glance this looks like your typical Spanish plume scenario. What we tend to see from these is that as we get closer, the forecasting takes the storms eastwards often with the result that you get a Kent clipper. These give a splendid light show out to sea for the South East. There are plumes that destabilize over the UK during the daytime with elevated storms which late on give a lightning show but very little rain as it evaporates before reaching the ground. Occasionally you will get storms over the continent which are surface based and drift North over the UK overnight which gives a
  4. Still unsure about tomorrows storm potential with the general indicators suggesting only mild convection generally moving into the south west from mid morning and moving northwards. The upper level jet streak exit should give some wind divergence aloft suggesting a tendency for upward air motion and over shooting tops. Forecast Skewts highlight all the model risks with storm forecasts with shallow surface moisture over egging convection on some models, moist mid levels giving messy convection etc. Looking at the Cardiff forecast SkewT I see messy convection with a weak storm mixed i
  5. Just been having a close look at Wednesday Afternoon and although there are ingredients for storms the modelling is not really playing ball. We do have upper level wind divergence due to the jet streak approaching Southern Ireland and we have a surface trough bringing some concentrated moist air. Low level wind convergence and turning winds as you go up the atmosphere would suggest longer lived convection. The problem is that mid to upper level lapse rates are very poor limiting cloud height, convection relies on dewpoints above 15C which is rare for the UK. Experience tells me to be war
  6. Slack low pressure over the UK with surface lows over northern Scotland and another moving across the southern part of the UK. Temperatures are pretty low so instability and storm severity is likely to be low. With light winds storms are likely to be slow moving giving a risk of localized flooding. Looking at forecast SkewT's I see a moist atmosphere all the way up which suggests messy convection, very light winds suggesting slow moving storms, limited cloud tops suggesting storms may not be particularly electrified. When I look into the wind patterns in more detail I see
  7. Cold front moving across the UK later today seem to have developed a marked squall line. This does not really look convective but modelling suggest quick bursts of low level winds up to 60mph and heavy rainfall as the boundary crosses the UK. More chances of thunderstorms tomorrow first Western areas and perhaps later Eastern areas.
  8. Introduction My intention is to produce a series of articles (depending on interest) which introduces ideas about volcanic and earthquake activity. I want to go slightly off the beaten track to explore oddities, volcano hazards, analysis methods, Wonders and Mankind’s impacts. Keep in mind I am not expert (corrections gratefully received), but hopefully these will at least give a flavour of some different places in the world and provide a few minutes escape from people’s troubles. Introducing Volcano Mount Karthala Reason for Interest This is a very active volcano with a h
  9. Complicated low level pattern of low wind convergence patterns seem to be a focus for convection today. This is particularly evident along eastern coast late into the afternoon as sea breezes spring up. Forecast SkewT diagrams show a little less moisture in the air going upwards which should reduce the number of storms today but increases the risk of discreet slightly stronger storms. Focus of the upper trough is likely to be across Ireland and the southern half of the UK so storms further north might be a little less electrified. Places to watch o
  10. Looks like little potent line of storms developing in south wales today and evidence of maybe a convective line in the North West. On shore breezes in eastern coastal areas likely to play a part again. Think as the day goes on things will start to focus in more eastern areas. Tomorrow looks like more of the same except the maritime air looks a little less moist going upwards through the atmosphere. There is also a short wave feature shown up on some of the models coming in from the south west (Shows up on EUMetsat Imagery as well). Winds still look light and instab
  11. Storm forecasts need to be realistic and when temperatures are below 20C then updraft strengths are likely to be limited. Equally when the air moisture is fairly consistent upwards then you are likely to get messy convection without good focus for storms. What we do have is a slow moving surface type low under an upper trough. This typically would give us slow moving heavy rainfall pulse type storms. With surface instability somewhat weak and mid level lapse rates being a strong driver of instability through the zero degree isotherm then hail should be part of the mix along with lightning
  12. Hi Brickfielder,

    hope you're well. You may find this interesting: 

    largepreview.png
    WWW.RESEARCHGATE.NET

    PDF | The occurrence of deep low-frequency (DLF) microearthquakes beneath volcanoes is commonly attributed to mass transport in the volcanic plumbing... | Find, read and cite all the research you need on ResearchGate

    Regards,

    Nick

  13. Still a chance of some storms today but generally the air profile is moist all the way up with limited cloud tops. Upper level trough still dips down over the western an southern halves of the UK enhancing cloud tops but winds are unidirectional all the way up. Instability looks like it will be in short supply unless cloud breaks which for most will not happen due to the moist profile all the way up the troposphere. Possibly Scottish Borders and Cumbria look interesting for spout like whirlwinds especially out of the sea. Some heavier down falls possible over parts o
  14. Introduction My intention is to produce a series of articles (depending on interest) which introduces ideas about volcanic and earthquake activity. I want to go slightly off the beaten track to explore oddities, volcano hazards, analysis methods, Wonders and Mankind’s impacts. Keep in mind I am not expert (corrections gratefully received), but hopefully these will at least give a flavour of some different places in the world and provide a few minutes escape from people’s troubles. Introducing The Salton Sea Buttes Volcanoes Reason for Interest Volcano activity in Sou
  15. Introduction My intention is to produce a series of articles (depending on interest) which introduces ideas about volcanic and earthquake activity. I want to go slightly off the beaten track to explore oddities, volcano hazards, analysis methods, Wonders and Mankind’s impacts. Keep in mind I am not expert (corrections gratefully received), but hopefully these will at least give a flavour of some different places in the world and provide a few minutes escape from people’s troubles. Introducing Volcano Mount Kaimon (Kaimondake) Reason for Interest A volcano less than 4000 years
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