CSC

Maybe you misunderstood what I was insulating, sorry. I meant the jet to push in that direction, to create a flow of air from the east.

Please mr weather gods!

There’s the potential for an easterly developing at just day 7. Come on ECM!

The difference on ECM at t72 from yesterday is stark. This is good so far. Notice the U.K. eastern side in slightly colder uppers!

Thank you! However, how do I access it in the format that you posted?

Don’t worry. I’m pretty sure all of GFS is wrong and it will get a lot colder than it’s currently showing

Hello all, evening! it’s my opinion that the GFS has now developed some kind of ‘westerly bias.’ It seems confused with the possibility of extreme cold coming in from the east. I am sure in the coming days, this will correct, but it’s still wrong even 6 hours our. for example tonight it predicts as cold as -1 here in Brighton for midnight. It’s already -1 at 5pm and will probably go as low as -3 or -4. Exciting times ahead. Take any models with a punch of salt right now. Extreme cold may still happen next week.

Thank you for adding this. May you provide a link for this so I can access for the future? Thank you!

I think some may be exceptionally surprised with the days ahead. There have been moments, albeit rare, where the GFS is entirely wrong even just 48h+ out. So expect surprises. My bold prediction is that within 7 days, we are going to see a cold N’Ely. This period of time just feels different, and I really just don’t think the U.K. will go considerably mild again for quite some time. A mild rest on Monday - Thurs and then back to cold and snow potential from then onwards is my view. Hang on in there. The ride has just begun.

Hey all, evening! I would just like to add a bit of input to this unique meteorological time. For us cold-lovers, it’s evident to me the ‘critical point’ is around the 12-13th Jan. Up until then it looks like agreement is close, but then cross model agreement starts to drastically shiver. If the heights build to our advantage, and we are on the right side of the cold, then things could quite possibly become spectacular. One noticeable theme - notice that precip forecast increases significantly at the critical moment around the 12th? This means that if we do get into the cold, nationwide snow events may possible follow in multiple numbers yes, speculation right now, but the possibility exists. As all those have said, macro not micro details are most important at this moment, but tonight I certainly will be thinking on the up. The exponential potential is there.

Hello everyone, we have seen historically time and time again, in similar situations these systems shift 40 Miles south, and I think tomorrow some could be in for a surprise. South of the M4, even onto the coast in Sussex, I would not be surprised if some see snow. With the blocking now fully in force, the ingredients are there for something spectacular over the next few weeks. We will see the jet ‘have another go’ as it shifts from temporary westerlies back to colder air. This is the best position we have been in for a long long time, and I dare I say it, a 2009 repeat is not unlikely, oh do I hope that happens again.

Temperatures are WELL BELOW what was forecast.. 1ºc low temperature tonight met office but already 0ºC..

Far South it is already close to freezing..

It is much colder than expected here on the South Coast. It is 0.5c already at coming up to 5pm. It was expected to be 4ºC.. Does this have an impact for tomorrow?...

I have to say I completely disagree with many who say that Tuesday evening will not bring significant snow. I am not too bothered if every model is against the met office if at any point that was the case I would always back METO. They have proved to be right in the past and will continue to be in the future. I said this about the last event and many were moaning about how nothing will fall 'unless over hills' and yet many places saw some snow. People may well be surprised waking up Wednesday morning to in my opinion some significant snow. I could be proven wrong of course..but last time my estimate was correct despite it being an unpopular opinion!

GFS 18z brings the possibility of more snow for the S and SE for WED rush hour after the initial event Tuesday night into Wednesday. This could cause some disruption and something to look out for and keep a close eye on too!

very interesting times indeed. Brighton is a geographical area almost impossible to forecast. I remember many snow events we have had where it was forecast to be rain but it is far enough to east to sometimes remain very cold. METO have heavy snow for the coast here so nowcasting seems the only way to find out! Could be 4 inches, could be less or could be nothing!

Very interesting that and certainly could create a lot of snow! What is your take for totals at this stage for say London and M4 area and then say the far southern counties like Brighton, East Sussex?

ICON model may have been inaccurate in recent times but it has been the one to sniff trends on some occasions. Lets hope it increases the snow event for the UK! Important and nervous times ahead..

Okay okay! It was a broad statement

Nothing is impossible when it comes to the weather!

@Mods Is it possible to add a 'Poll' option on this forum? It would be awesome to have a poll where we can as a community predict how much snow will fall? Just thought that would be cool!

It may be a big ask but we got 13 inches last time in 2010! The precipitation intensity may well be that much again. So many variables to depend on. If the snow arrives when the temperatures are colder, I wouldn't rule dismiss 6 inches for the whole of the south east and for somewhere 1ft!

METO have heavy snow for all areas including the far South coast

What do people think the snow total will be for East Sussex? METO have heavy snow for here in Brighton and on the PPN METO charts it looks like a sweet spot.. 15cm here?..