February1978

GFS following ECM in developing high pressure around day 10, even if it is somewhat transient. Grounds for optimism?

10.0C and 94mm please Miserable first few days, mild and wet start, high minima, hope for a springlike spell later

*Stormforce~beka* Completely agree. I'm north of Basingstoke, we've had 950mm in 9 months, way more than in a normal year (750mm). Lacking in sunshine too. Easter doesn't look like helping that....but there is time for that to improve - current GFS looks slightly better.

Difficult, anything could happen, cold or mild, wet or dry. On current outputs, the value has to be on the colder and drier side - so 6.8c and 68mm please......... I don't like going cold side though!

Gowon dry is good for me!

Meanwhile, this will be the 8th wetter-than-average month running on EWP. The last drier month was June (though you could say August and January were 'average'). How unusual would this be?

Beyond the next day or so outputs are still poor – and no real cold anywhere near for at least a week plus. We are only just about still in play, and probably need a favourable SSW to help out. Meanwhile 15mm rain at 5c here…… what if……..

andymusic hopefully they are right, anyone seen the UKMO 12z yet?

Lukesluckybunch Afraid so - that low leaks away northwestwards again on GFS and opens the door to the Sahara

Good to see a southward trend of the models, much better for longevity through February. Meanwhile, whilst we’re all wondering where the ‘snow line’ is going to be on Thursday, it’s worth remembering that in these global models 50-100 miles is quite a small distance - but for us it could be a huge deal. Expect ‘small’ changes right until the end & enjoy the ride……!

Nick2373 Cold at Day 16-18!

5.3c & 94mm please

GFS could get fun/interesting here..... (about time too!)

Agreed, will it ever be possible to model these small scale features at more than a handful of days? There will always be an error in the initial state, whether it’s instrument error, lack of coverage in certain parts of the atmosphere, topology or the like and that’s before any physics assumptions are made. Due to the chaotic nature of meteorology, there is often not a ‘steady state solution’ & errors grow, irrespective of how fine the resolution or accurate the dynamical equations are. Rubbish in, rubbish out……..so I think NWP will always struggle beyond a few days. On a slightly different tack - the (off-the-) scale of EAMT anomaly highlighted in Tamara’s post is really something - must surely have an impact in due course….?

@sebastiaan1973 Party? More like a wake for winters past at the moment...! At least we get to dry out for a bit