Firefly2005

Need the AMOC to hurry up and collapse…

This should defo be a new tradition of saying thanks on here now.

Is he not just updating his interpretations along with the models? I always find his posts really easy to understand and also thorough. Normally don’t get involved in these to and fros but don’t want anyone to feel unvalued here. Very grateful to everyone who contributes their knowledge to this forum - it’s massively increased mine!

I know it’s slightly off topic… but still I liked this image and thought I’d respond with photos of our house in the 70s

Can someone tell me in simple terms what is going on and why we’re so excited and how certain it is? On a side note it has felt like snow is on the way here in next few days in the Pennines for about 48 hrs. I know that sounds ridiculous but it has

Really interesting - thanks!

About 4 inches so far here in hills above Hebden Bridge (HX26JQ) at 240m. It’s been great fun. Looking at the radar it looks like we’re about to get a proper dumping - am I right (v casual user)? My kids were loving it today. School still open throughout too IMG_2149.MOV

Snow settling in the hills above Hebden Bridge… but we’re at 250m here. Only a dusting presently and none on the roads

I know it’s not that scientific… but the carpenter reframing our roof who has had his work based round weather for 30 years says “it’s going to be a long hard cold winter that we’re all going to remember” just to add to positive vibes

Heavy snow in hills above Hebden bridge and all that stuff in north east looks to be heading towards us.... 250m

Wow Keld looks lovely. Castle and an abbey aswell! And with names like "Crackpot" and "Butthouse rigg" you can't go wrong... long way to the nearest job for me though! Work in the NHS.

Now on our 4th day of lying snow.... feels like winter. When we were choosing where to bring up the kids my only criteria was that it must be over 200m elevation... now we're at 240 and I wish rightmove could rank homes by altitude! (Hills above Hebden Bridge)

I'm a rare poster in here mainly as I just don't have enough knowledge or understanding to comment. These posts look really promising, but I've been over-optimistic before. What point can we look at models and say cold/snow is pretty much a definite? 2-3 days out? And so I guess all these lovely looking model outputs could still give us nothing if they're at 5-6 days? Sorry for the low level post but it's nice to hear the real chances in lay terms... Regards Ian ps I live at 280m in the pennines so I'm hopeful....

Interesting that met office isn’t picking up on this at all...

Looking at the radar it looks like we’re going to get plenty of snow in Hebden Bridge today... but no sign of it on met office app... what do people think?

I know there’s a lot of negativity in here - is that a hangover from the amazing winter last year? Expectations a bit unreasonable? We’ve had more snow at our house in the Pennines this winter than we got in the whole of 2016-2017 winter. About 5 days of settled lying not melting snow so far as opposed to 3 that year. Even if we just keep getting these spells of snowy weather I feel like we’re still not having a bad winter...

At 300m near Hebden Bridge (Halifax way), that sounds splendid to me. Be nice to have this again... only got about a cm of snow lying currently

I’m really interested in that last sentence. Could you or anyone else shed more light on this? I asked about this on the old thread where you weren’t allowed anything other than serious model chat but it was (appropriately) moved to the “learning” section and not be answered as far as I can see... However the opportunity to catch all the experts contributing to this thread is too good to ignore. Structurally are we going to see more cold winters long term? Is the AMOC/Gulf Stream weakening by 15% real and is that key driver of the Atlantic influence on our weather? I’d be really interested in this to know if my kids are going to see snowy winters as they grow up. We moved to the Pennines (300m elevation) largely because I love snow so much and wanted some harshness in winter. Thanks in advance and would love people’s thoughts...

I much prefer this style of thread as as a newcomer I found that I wasn’t able to contribute at all and it felt unwelcoming. This is much better in my opinion.

Really interesting post! Quite philosophical... thanks

Just out of interest are those long term watchers (over decades) seeing any changes due to this “15% decline” of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (gulf stream) that we occasionally read about in the news? Wondering if that’s going to impact things in our lifetime or not? Assuming that without that we’d behave a lot more like a continental land mass and have a climate more similar to Moscow...? Interest sparked by seeing people posting charts from the 80s etc. Massive amount of knowledge in here! (And at least I’m not complaining about no snow so it lightens the mood )

Could you explain this more to those of us who are lay people and only have a very basic understanding? Thanks in advance

Heavy snow in the hills above Hebden Bridge Inch deep so far... justifies moving here 3 years ago...

If it’s currently snowing lightly here already (260m altitude in the Pennines near Halifax) I’m guessing these models are good news over the next few days-2 weeks then? But not anything that looks like the 6-8ft drifts we had (and loved) last year? I’ve read this thread for about 3 weeks before posting and feel I’m beginning to get the hang of things... but to translate into simpleton language we don’t have anything that looks like the sustained blast we had last year yet though do we?