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Everything posted by Vikos
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Model Output Discussion - Into Winter
Vikos replied to MATTWOLVES 3's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
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Model Output Discussion - Into Winter
Vikos replied to MATTWOLVES 3's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
as Long as the US are not blizzard‘ed, i am chilled, the pendulum will swing back to colder, soon… -
Model Output Discussion - Into Winter
Vikos replied to MATTWOLVES 3's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
El Niño… slightly displaced Jet over N. America -
Model Output Discussion - Into Winter
Vikos replied to MATTWOLVES 3's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
GFS under too much statistic influence (hyping the atlantic, I hope) -
Model Output Discussion - Into February
Vikos replied to damianslaw's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Still no starting parameter… The zonal mean zonal wind at 10 hPa 60N is today (GFS analysis): 1.7 m/s -
Model Output Discussion - Into February
Vikos replied to damianslaw's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
it will happen tomorrow but will we see the big flip or just a flop? -
Model Output Discussion - Into February
Vikos replied to damianslaw's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
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Model Output Discussion - Into February
Vikos replied to damianslaw's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
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Model Output Discussion - Into February
Vikos replied to damianslaw's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
@nick sussex did show that couple of days ago very good how the OP's flipped after taking the ssw into calculations in 2018 -
Model Output Discussion - Into February
Vikos replied to damianslaw's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
http://178.62.112.79/prod/gfs/vertical_cross/umedel60.png looks promising -
Model Output Discussion - Into February
Vikos replied to damianslaw's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Let it happen then see results. It’s still to early to watch for significant changes in the OPs From the ec site… -
Model Output Discussion - Into February
Vikos replied to damianslaw's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
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Model Output Discussion - Into February
Vikos replied to damianslaw's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
I would say we are still middle of winter… -
Model Output Discussion - Into February
Vikos replied to damianslaw's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Prologned reversal but not (yet) downwelling first chart with -winds gfs and some Japanese stuff to add which in my eyes doesn’t look very promising yesterday’s ec chart -
Model Output Discussion - Into February
Vikos replied to damianslaw's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
The SSW probability in GEFS is: 94% weatheriscool (.com) -
Model Output Discussion - Into February
Vikos replied to damianslaw's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
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Model Output Discussion - Into February
Vikos replied to damianslaw's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Institute of Meteorology - Working Group Atmospheric Dynamics - Stratosphere Diagnostics USERS.MET.FU-BERLIN.DE I find everything I need except a reversal at 10hpa -
Model Output Discussion - Into February
Vikos replied to damianslaw's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Can you provide me a link please to those FU Berlin () charts? regards -
Model Output Discussion - Into February
Vikos replied to damianslaw's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
A bit offtopic but I will drop it here maybe someone will bookmark it. all actual charts with very good explanations of teleconnections like MJO, NAM and so on (see top off page) Madden-Julian Oscillation [MJO]: observed and Forecast values. WWW.FIRENZEMETEO.IT Madden-Julian Oscillation [MJO], current values and forecasts. Long range forecasts for Pacific and Indian oceans. -
Model Output Discussion - Into February
Vikos replied to damianslaw's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
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Model Output Discussion - Into February
Vikos replied to damianslaw's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
I’d love to have trust in gfs but it fooled me big time not so long ago with some stunning easterly flow… and I said to myself not to be fooled again. So many times. -
Model Output Discussion - Into February
Vikos replied to damianslaw's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
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Model Output Discussion - Into February
Vikos replied to damianslaw's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
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Model Output Discussion - Into February
Vikos replied to damianslaw's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Looks like fan blades ready to cool us down -
Model Output Discussion - Into February
Vikos replied to damianslaw's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
I don’t have a lot of faith in the mean as some strong members/signals can drag it up or down just enough that it either shows a reversal or not. We have to play the waiting game for a few days more…