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Vikos

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    Model Output Discussion - Into Winter

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    33 minutes ago, MATTWOLVES 3 said:

    I think the yanks could quickly lose patience with the way things could be heading..Strong East based EL Nino could bring much warmer conditions moving through the month. Keeping the cold from them can only be better for us longer term in my honest opinion. @MAF i dont think i could have explained it in any easier terms. 

     

    Screenshot_20231204_210223_X.jpg

    The yanks do this already 

     

    • Thanks 1

    Model Output Discussion - Into Winter

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    39 minutes ago, Catacol said:

    Another op run for Sat 16 Dec showing a wave break. 

    image.thumb.png.ce8920b1fdf5218c554043e424692901.png

    This would be quite a fast response to the passage of the MJO though not perhaps for a resurgent GLAAM profile. 

    GFS has a habit of picking up on trends at the outer edge of model usefulness, dropping them, bringing them back....and then other models grab the idea at 240h. I'm not convinced the timing is right - I think it will take longer....but Sat 16 might be a decent outer marker to bench mark trends and timings against. 

    EC Control, too, as it renders 15 days ahead (op only 10 days)

    • Like 1

    Model Output Discussion - Into Winter

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    13 minutes ago, John88B said:

    That won't be a problem, we're used to having patience in the UK as we await some meaningful cold weather🙂

    I agree probably nothing of real interest in the next 10 day but after that I genuinely believe the models will start showing something of interest in the nearer term leading to a cold spell towards the end of December. Hopefully in time for Christmas 🤞

    I’ve been looking at model outputs for many years now to know, that things can change within only a couple of runs. Even when all seems to be stuck at boring weather, this just can be the pendulum being in the middle before it swings back to action…

    the tPV is messed up, the overall patterns are the best since years, so it’s just riding the “mild” wave and see what’s on the menu afterwards 😅

    • Like 5
    • Thanks 1

    Model Output Discussion - Into Winter

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    3 minutes ago, MATTWOLVES 3 said:

    The chase is better than the outcome?

    Well what when your chasing the woman of your dreams for months...buying her chocolates and other expensive gifts...being there for her in her times of distress..then one day you pop the question! Will gou go out with me..I love you? On ya bike is the replie...I ain't bloody desperate 🤣

    Well folks I know someone who that happened to on more than one occasion....OK yeh it was me...but I'm too old to care now...put me out to graze at the animal sanctuary....thats what a failed cold chase feels like.

    Like others have said the longer term prognosis is good...i know similarities with last December have been made,but that was destined to be a front loaded winter....this one is in reverse,a backloaded one....and drivers are far more positive than last year!

    A quick glance at some of the ens and I think this is what we could be seeing in a couple of weeks time. So just a little patience and hold fire...just like you should with santa...he won't come if you Start to stress him out folks 😉

    gensnh-1-1-348.png

    gensnh-3-1-384.png

    gensnh-14-1-312.png

    I said sometimes! 😂 Sometimes I went out with a “Ferrari” and woke up next to a “Lada”, to say it in your words 🤪😎

    this year, the odds for more winter’y weather are the better than the last years… more colder with short mild intrusions 

     

    • Like 7

    Model Output Discussion - Into Winter

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    12 minutes ago, TSNWK said:

    I'm with you.  Lots of theory but for most coldies it's about impact on the ground. For example a Canadian warming is much lorded however on this occasion I'm not convinced on its  merit. Yes the vortex has been kicked aside but we are still effected by the jetstream and westerlys 

    Can you point out wich jet you mean? I only see fragments of it… as posted earlier by me 😅

    • Like 1

    Model Output Discussion - Into Winter

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted · Edited by Vikos

    22 minutes ago, Lukesluckybunch said:

    Problem is no cold air too tap into now from the east..due to that Siberian high as Nick was saying.the trend is good though,with heights building toward greenland..so a few tweaks come the 12z..and it could be a better outcome

    Well, we all aren’t living in a favourable spot for prolonged cold and snowy weather, and climate change is doing the rest. 
    my hopes remain that the El Niño effect will affect us in the later season. Again, as long as US/Canada remain “warm”, and the PV and the jet aren’t doing as they should do, everything is on the menu. 
     

    image.thumb.png.a627a2c8830611b2abbe9bb45c02bf38.png
    image.thumb.png.6fc70036c4e3a7bbce1a44901cc4ada9.png


    sometimes the chase is more thrilling than the actual outcome (at least for me)

    • Like 5
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