Vikos

Well, in synoptics, one never writes anything off or on 😄 Synoptic "freaks" (try to) predict, and if they found to be false, they just say, ehh, its a chotic system, you never know, sorry 😄 I had posted some howmöllers over to @bluearmy but got no response yet. I found them to be lets say promising. Matchday forme around 25th, after that storm low moved on.

We talked about ENS and their strongs and weaks already 🙂 Let's wait for those 12z EC scenarios, they will be available within one hour or so. I am quite excited....

This can change. Signals are given. And those are not yet to be found on deterministic outputs.

It updated the charts, but the gif is still good 🙂

One must seperate the outcomes of a SSWE. Displacement or even Split. If Split, where is the axis? If displacement, where are the boundaries, how are the flows affected? This actual SSW is a displacement, and ME/WE is at the westerly boundaries, so to say battleground of air masses. That's a bit of bad luck ATM, but with some minor warmings, may it will split... See left down corner? Temp_max is raising

I put my bet on this storm low, it will do some damage to the patterns (I guess). So 21st - 25th is my time of change, anything after that is pure guessing.

wouldn’t say... negative and predicted to stay negative.

Was there ever a doubt that it won’t be like that? 🥸😎 lets see what ec delivery brings us for lunch. I ordered something cold...

No one dares to shout out BOOOOM, yet? 😬

This is what I’ve been trying to tell for ages now. Thank you for your post!

Source: http://untamedskies.com/climate-variabilities/#MJO

@bluearmy any thoughts? Conditions for 3.12.2020

Maybe it raises some hopes. CFS was by now very conservative with Highs to the nord, but it seems they did a smal turnaround. Don't loose the faith in cold. Nothing is lost and we have still plenty of time ahead. 🙂

I personally am against mean charts after d4 as the get too diffuse. I will try to specify why: The advantage of the ENS mean is purely statistical and must be understood as such. From a synoptic point of view, however, averaged maps show unreal situations. This becomes immediately clear to you when you imagine a bifurcation (and every deviation, no matter how small, is in principle the beginning of a bifurcation). Both branches develop on the basis of calculations of physical driving forces and reflect physically real scenarios in the calculated state space. But if one determines a mean

EC 00z Scenarios

Well, it can't last forver, though. That's just plain physics of reaction and counterreaction I would say. Lets just wait and see, M-R-N 🙂

And thanks again, BA. What more to say than a classical: "More runs needed" 🙂 The only thing you and me are shownig at long last are the uncertainties of mid-term (not to speak about mid-to-long-term) predictions atm.

Thanks Griff. Others may see things diffrent, but for me this is one of the first signs in our heights (off the ssw)

Thanks for your answer. I will say, that once the easterly flow is developed, with that snow and ice coverage to the east and a rather neg AO/NAO (westerlies will have to fight hard against cold ground air masses and flows), it will just strengthen up. So while I am not living at the pole, I am very happy with this signal (snow in garden tralala), and as I mentioned in strat thread, EC Outputs are quite reliable on that timeframe.

First hint of easterly flows in trop at our latitude? See those -20is, they "dropped" down... That's the reversal we need. I think. ssw outcome. see strat thread why I think that this is about to happen as EC is very good in prognosis of Strat effects.

If we just would accept, that the NW of Europe isn't THE ALPS, ones would have a easyer life for shure. I am on ca. 200m ASL, and had snow for a couple of hours, frost only a few nights, but I am not moaning about it as others do. That's maybe the difference in enthusiasm, ones are interested in snowfall in their garden, others (like me) are interested in overall synoptics and don't give a great s... about local outcomes. Last year, for example, we had a night, when 850 raised from -8 to +4 within 2-3 hours, with heavy precipitations going trhough all physical states of water, s

All plausible, but after seeing the EZ Scenarios yesterday, I doubt, that EC is performaning very good ATM, so I have little trust.

Why you drop the 10day 850is GIF? For our part of the world it doens't it remains the same. No cold weather. Isn't this the synoptics thread, not the regional weather thread? Sorry, I am in the wrong thread, then...

Thanks. Updated it, so press STRG+F5 for full reload of the site, then they should show. Sorry.... 😕