Vikos

Looking good for a Split upstairs. But still needs to reach troposphere. Downwelling will take some time, no signals on a PVS in troposphere, yet 10hPa 30hPa in 50hPa winds slow down, but no negatives, but patterns seem to follow upper levels. In 150hPa (Strat-2-Tropo layer) still looking quite zonal, winds remain all positive Regarding those zonal winds, well.... From to----> Wait and see. Honestly, atm I see a patt situation, outcome unknown. GFS looks good, though.

EC Scenarios 12z Each scenario, defined at 500 hPa, is associated to one of 4 pre-defined large scale climatological regimes. The frame colour of each plot represents the association to the climatological regimes. Scenario with a red frame indicates that its large scale features resembles the ones represented by the blocking, blue indicates association with Positive NAO pattern, green indicates association with negative NAO and violet with the Atlantic ridge pattern. So, needed blocking is with one weaker cluster around month change... bit of hope...but... mrn (more runs needed)

Maybe it's the new variation (mutant) Stay safe (will be deleted soon I think)

Yep, this is the way to go

Yep, those background signals... along with the EC charts of 30hpa.

Well, that's way out of my understanding range, but ok, if you think so, why not. You must have your reasons for that. I won't crawl throu 10 pages back now of postings to find them. That the overall patterns show a milder interlude, that's safe, but I wouldn't bank anythink after next weekend. Things can change fast, it's still very dynamic with a lot of powerful fluxes.

NAO and AO are direct outputs of GFS main runs. As we now, those are swinging like a donkeys tail... don't even bother about those is my hint. FU Berlin is what one should look at, I did post the charts in the morning, the DISPLACED Vortex is changing its axis into a more favourable condition...

Sorry, dude, but this isn't the moan thread. Synoptics is the prediction of an outcome, not the hope for an special outcome. That's the game! If hope on a certain weather pattern is your goal, than mid-to-long-term synoptics is maybe the wrong hobby to do. For me, every thrilling synoptic outlook is favourable. Let it be heavy rain, strong storms in autum, snowfalls, winter thunderstorms or even blizzards, heat waves in summer and their dramatic ends with huge MSC systems. As long as it isn't boring for ages I am fine with any weather pattern.

Don't search in determistic outputs. See the background signals. Those look promising And first of all: Don't lose hope, keep the faith. This applies to alot these days, in GB as in GER and the rest of the continent Sometimes there are things on earth more important then snow in the backyard...

Some MJO forecasts GFS EC

Good mornig! I get a smell of a pattern/flow change. This is lower strat at 30hpA 10day forecast---> Would take some time for further downstream development, but signal look quite good for some N/Neasterly currents around change of month. So we have to ride this mild wave, wich is quite common in colder winters. I doubt that we will have to suffer for a prolonged time with mildish westly winds.

Too soon?

Ok... more runs needed And south GB shares the same latitude with Germany (around 50°N) But bluearmy pointed out something very good, indeed.... Lets wait for the clusters....

Far too weak I would say, gets overrun easly. But Didi-land, anyways....

Wont bother you guys, but I think I have a major problem

Come on...

Don't get too over excited over a good GFSop run... Charts has been updated

From a german outlook site: On January 17th, 2021, GFS expects that the polar vortex of Greenland at a height of around 16km (100 hPa, left) will join the main vortex over Siberia as a European trough by January 21st, 2021 (middle), thus turning the high-altitude current over Western and Central Europe on SW and there is temporary mitigation. With the further shift of the European trough to the east (right), the current turns back to NW directions and it will be wintry again on the weekend of January 23/24, 2021.

After a bit of time, EC has more than one scenario in end of mid-term range Yesterdays 12z Minor warming is getting "warmer" Yersterdays 06 ---> EC @ 5hpA +12°C This downwells to 10hpa with -15°C in 10hpa, so it matches GFS at day10

I am one of those who belives in Feb and a bit of March, since I tend to say that seasons have shifted a bit, so autum is going almost up to late december (with first cold spells around end of Nov), while summer epsiodes start quite early. Even with that SSWE in mind, my fear is that we get stucked in some colderly patterns for at least 2 months ongoing and at the end warmer spells will be a reliev we wish for...

True words, needs to be pinned! Thank you!

GEM just failed. Second, atm no need to look at GFS/op outputs after +144h

GFS op =

Right now, 10 out of 10 That's why I am waiting for that massive low as a gamechanger (hopefully) which can break up those structures. Hope and keep the faith