[Model output discussion - into the last third of January]

Maybe it's just a feeling, but could it be that the models swing at shorter intervals? Is it a background signal that has a massive impact on the prognosis? MJO?

   

 

   

 

FI is (more hope than knowledge) Around 72/96hr

[Model output discussion - into the last third of January]

6 minutes ago, Ice Day said:

FI back to 72/96 at the moment.

 

So true!

[Model output discussion - into the last third of January]

Outlier for me

[Model output discussion - into the last third of January]

Comparing EC 12z yesterday and today @ 29th (in the middle todays 00z)

 

      

 

Not very good perfomance, either atm

[Model output discussion - into the last third of January]

1 minute ago, Mike Poole said:

Anyone got on any info on how to deal with an arctic high, it seems to me it is modelled at random, but has a massive difference down the line, on the modelled jet stream and blocks in the mid last.  ECM T216:

I’m not sure i would have put it ( the arctic high) there, ECM does, but still...

I see this Iberia high and have the melody of "hello darkness my old friend (sound of silence" in my mind. This would be a gameover 😞

[Model output discussion - into the last third of January]

3 minutes ago, Weathizard said:

Anyone find any positives from this ECM run? No, me neither.

I do, maybe not to local (yet), but that cold pool is growing big time! If we manage to put our straws in this ice cold sangria bucket...

From   to --->

 

It seems it sucks all the cold away from Canada

[Model output discussion - into the last third of January]

2 minutes ago, Mr_Pessimistic said:

Ha, realistic would be nice 🙂

Ok, there you go

 

The main center of the polar vortex lies over Siberia with a strong cold trough over Scandinavia to M/W-Europe, a smaller part of the vortex lies over central Canada with a high pressure bridge from northern Canada to the North Pacific (polar vortex split). Between the high pressure bridge and the main vortex over Eurasia, arctic air masses can flow from eastern Siberia over the Arctic directly to Europe. This is around 25.1.

For the outcome of that SSWE, we are in a good timeline according this graph

See the stratosphere Thread, where @sebastiaan1973 postet a paper about the downwelling events of SSWE

[Model output discussion - into the last third of January]

6 minutes ago, Mr_Pessimistic said:

Hi, anyone any news on whether the SSW will couple with the trop this time?  As presumably, if it were to have an affect, we would be seeing this in the models by now?   Or was there simply not enough oomph from the warming to disrupt the strat enough in the first place?   Thanks..

Do you want a rather pessemistic or a rather optimistic outlook?

[Model output discussion - into the last third of January]

Sometimes, one has just to say

The trend is your friend

So, the trend is going the right way for coldies, outcome yet very diffuse regarding where H and L lay, but the trend is a rather colder end of January to a cold start of February. Not more, not less.

[Model output discussion - into the last third of January]

2 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Not liking this at all now, some clusters showing Euro heights as well, even some of the ens that fall off a cliff on the temperature graphs of both suites, they look transitory, no real signs of any proper Scandinavian highs, wondering now if it will be one of those flattenings but with faux cold, 30 dayer hinting of that by mid feb and GFS 12z strat charts in FI hint at it as well.

I think this period of model watching becoming boring now tbh.

+144h is still my FI mark, deterministic models struggle to give a good mid-term outlook.

[Model output discussion - into the last third of January]

 

EC Scenarios 12z

 

Each scenario, defined at 500 hPa, is associated to one of 4 pre-defined large scale climatological regimes. The frame colour of each plot represents the association to the climatological regimes. Scenario with a red frame indicates that its large scale features resembles the ones represented by the blocking, blue indicates association with Positive NAO pattern, green indicates association with negative NAO and violet with the Atlantic ridge pattern.

[Model output discussion - into the last third of January]

Just now, Froze were the Days said:

ther than that maybe some interest forming again as we head towards February?

Still no doubt about it.

A bit cherry picking, but hey, this is the models thread 🙂

 

 

[Model output discussion - into the last third of January]

1 minute ago, Griff said:

yes, starting to show itself!

Split? Triplit 😄

[Stratosphere and Polar Vortex Watch 2020]

For me, this looks good

 

 

[Model output discussion - into the last third of January]

I like this maps (alot)

GFS OP

GFSp

[Model output discussion - into the last third of January]

21 minutes ago, Battleground Snow said:

Yes, but we have the MJO on side this time, well hopefully.

 

Those background signals.... 😎

 

[Model output discussion - into the last third of January]

2 minutes ago, Daniel* said:

Euro trough digging more south quite visible for Italy at day 5 can only be a positive. 

Hmm. Doesn’t look so mild... 

[Model output discussion - into the last third of January]

33 minutes ago, Youcan'tbecirrus said:

I wonder if they also say Tag Zehn or Zwolf in this case. 

No, we say „immer nur in der Glaskugel“ wich means those BOOOM charts always are in the gipsy Cristal ball (this thing they use to predict the future...)

[Model output discussion - into the last third of January]

The mood in here is like the d10 correlation graph from GFS. Ups and downs every 6h 🥸

[Model output discussion - into the last third of January]

Just some eyecandy to lighten up your day

[Stratosphere and Polar Vortex Watch 2020]

Looking good for a Split upstairs. But still needs to reach troposphere. Downwelling will take some time, no signals on a PVS in troposphere, yet

10hPa

 

 

30hPa

 

in 50hPa winds slow down, but no negatives, but patterns seem to follow upper levels.

 

In 150hPa (Strat-2-Tropo layer) still looking quite zonal, winds remain all positive

 

Regarding those zonal winds, well....

 

From    to---->

 

Wait and see. Honestly, atm I see a patt situation, outcome unknown. GFS looks good, though.

 

[Model Output Discussion - Snow for some, but what else is in store?]

EC Scenarios 12z

   

 

Each scenario, defined at 500 hPa, is associated to one of 4 pre-defined large scale climatological regimes. The frame colour of each plot represents the association to the climatological regimes. Scenario with a red frame indicates that its large scale features resembles the ones represented by the blocking, blue indicates association with Positive NAO pattern, green indicates association with negative NAO and violet with the Atlantic ridge pattern.

 

 

So, needed blocking is with one weaker cluster around month change... bit of hope...but... mrn (more runs needed)

[Model Output Discussion - Snow for some, but what else is in store?]

Maybe it's the new variation (mutant)

 

Stay safe

(will be deleted soon I think)

[Model Output Discussion - Snow for some, but what else is in store?]

Yep, this is the way to go

   

 

[Stratosphere and Polar Vortex Watch 2020]

Yep, those background signals... along with the EC charts of 30hpa.