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Vikos

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Posts posted by Vikos

  1. 1 minute ago, Mike Poole said:

    Anyone got on any info on how to deal with an arctic high, it seems to me it is modelled at random, but has a massive difference down the line, on the modelled jet stream and blocks in the mid last.  ECM T216:

    A027E2BF-28A5-4A8B-A19C-AAEE1FF9DED1.thumb.png.d3fe416536d47e2cd9bb5dbef995d3e2.png

    I’m not sure i would have put it ( the arctic high) there, ECM does, but still...

    I see this Iberia high and have the melody of "hello darkness my old friend (sound of silence" in my mind. This would be a gameover 😞

    • Like 5
  2. 2 minutes ago, Mr_Pessimistic said:

    Ha, realistic would be nice 🙂

    Ok, there you go

    2cf4y4xz.jpg

     

    The main center of the polar vortex lies over Siberia with a strong cold trough over Scandinavia to M/W-Europe, a smaller part of the vortex lies over central Canada with a high pressure bridge from northern Canada to the North Pacific (polar vortex split). Between the high pressure bridge and the main vortex over Eurasia, arctic air masses can flow from eastern Siberia over the Arctic directly to Europe. This is around 25.1.

    For the outcome of that SSWE, we are in a good timeline according this graph

    wcd-1-373-2020-avatar-web.png

    See the stratosphere Thread, where @sebastiaan1973 postet a paper about the downwelling events of SSWE

    • Like 5
    • Thanks 1
  3. 2 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

    Not liking this at all now, some clusters showing Euro heights as well, even some of the ens that fall off a cliff on the temperature graphs of both suites, they look transitory, no real signs of any proper Scandinavian highs, wondering now if it will be one of those flattenings but with faux cold, 30 dayer hinting of that by mid feb and GFS 12z strat charts in FI hint at it as well.

    I think this period of model watching becoming boring now tbh.

    +144h is still my FI mark, deterministic models struggle to give a good mid-term outlook.

    • Like 1
  4.  

    EC Scenarios 12z

    ps2png-worker-commands-7745797d4-xcz62-6ps2png-worker-commands-7745797d4-8x87q-6  ps2png-worker-commands-7745797d4-74bpj-6

    Each scenario, defined at 500 hPa, is associated to one of 4 pre-defined large scale climatological regimes. The frame colour of each plot represents the association to the climatological regimes. Scenario with a red frame indicates that its large scale features resembles the ones represented by the blocking, blue indicates association with Positive NAO pattern, green indicates association with negative NAO and violet with the Atlantic ridge pattern.

    • Like 2
    • Thanks 2
  5. Looking good for a Split upstairs. But still needs to reach troposphere. Downwelling will take some time, no signals on a PVS in troposphere, yet

    10hPa

    ecmwf10f216.png  ecmwf10f240.png

     

    30hPa

    ecmwf30f240.png

     

    in 50hPa winds slow down, but no negatives, but patterns seem to follow upper levels.

    ecmwf50f240.png

     

    In 150hPa (Strat-2-Tropo layer) still looking quite zonal, winds remain all positive

    ecmwf150f240.png

     

    Regarding those zonal winds, well....

     

    From ecmwfzm_u_a12.png   to----> ecmwfzm_u_f240.png

     

    grafik.thumb.png.d950c9b8433cf39a883dbe8572201ac9.png

    Wait and see. Honestly, atm I see a patt situation, outcome unknown. GFS looks good, though.

     

    • Like 1
  6. EC Scenarios 12z

    ps2png-worker-commands-7745797d4-qxxkm-6  ps2png-worker-commands-7745797d4-jqwm9-6  ps2png-worker-commands-7745797d4-74bpj-6

     

    Each scenario, defined at 500 hPa, is associated to one of 4 pre-defined large scale climatological regimes. The frame colour of each plot represents the association to the climatological regimes. Scenario with a red frame indicates that its large scale features resembles the ones represented by the blocking, blue indicates association with Positive NAO pattern, green indicates association with negative NAO and violet with the Atlantic ridge pattern.

     

    spacer.pngspacer.png

     

    So, needed blocking is with one weaker cluster around month change... bit of hope...but... mrn (more runs needed)

    • Like 3
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