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Vikos

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    Model Output Discussion - Colder but how cold and for how long?

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    3 minutes ago, Nick2373 said:

    towards the end of the month few members toying with the idea of something colder    

    I think we should pack all teleconnections aside and focus on the main drivers…

    so strat looks to fall back into more promising patterns (as they where until now) within the next week. Giving some downwelling time, things can drop fast beginning of February… just keep the faith 😎

     

    image.thumb.png.41ab1ac0e794024b371e04e38316d7cf.png

     

    image.thumb.png.a8b32ee7190a93b9273aeb03a0d65593.png

    • Like 2

    Moans, ramps and banter

    in Spring Weather Discussion

    Posted

    Just now, mathematician said:

    And basically in the rest of England. This is probably the only country in the world where we don't have a proper summer, but we don't have a proper winter either.

     

    Sick and tired of it honestly.

    Come to Greece 🇬🇷 

    currently at my place…

     

    IMG_6823.png

    • Like 4
    • Insightful 1

    Model Output Discussion - Into 2024

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    19 minutes ago, Scott Ingham said:

    It’s tempting mate!

    I will just post in the regionals I think tbh from now on 

    Come on, don’t be childish, I really enjoy your content you post here, so please, don’t let anyone make you go…

     tell you what, in comparison with the wetterzentrale forum this place is like a ponyfarm, over there we fight till blood, it’s like a battlefield between coldies and warmies right now 😂

    and still, it’s just weather…

    • Like 6
    • Popular Post
    • Popular Post

    Model Output Discussion - Into 2024

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted · Edited by Vikos

    If you  look into the stratosphere, around the 15th/16th January, a significant weakening of the zonal winds in 10 hPa at 60 N is ongoing. 
    This can be seen as a clear indicator of an SSW.

    However, there is no indication of a polar vortex split, just a “displacement”.
    Nevertheless, this process (“minor warming”) could pave the way for cold phases
    over Europe because the westerly wind drift (weakening jet stream) is responding
    Then about 7 to 14 days later often subsides and blocking highs cold
    Air masses could shovel towards the European continent.

    Since mid-October due to westerly weather conditions with lots of wind and rain and mostly
    which was characterized by mild temperatures, has now been completely changed. The main cause is a
    wedge rising far to the north over the northeast Atlantic, located between 2
    powerful long-wave troughs (one over the North American continent, one
    over Scandinavia) to the south of Greenland and to the Norwegian Sea
    could. This Omega pattern proves to be very robust into the medium term.
    Although it gradually shifts somewhat retrogradely, it acts as
    Blocking into the lower atmosphere and even leaves the Rossby wave number
    go back from the current 6 to 7 to 4 to 5. So the wave patterns move
    slower, which could increase the persistence of the block.

    from German DWD synoptic mid range outlook 

    • Like 14
    • Thanks 5

    Model Output Discussion - Into 2024

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    7 minutes ago, jamesthemonkeh said:

    CFSv2 has those pesky/delightful Iberian heights in February - make of it what you will.

    glbz700MonInd2.thumb.gif.aaf4ce1712ce8976f702328564d3c4c0.gif

    Though a couple of days ago it had much more extensive northern blocking.

    Not sure I give it much credence right now, especially with stratospheric goings-on - I wouldn't be surprised to see it flip post-warming, once more.  But maybe a cautionary thought for those dreaming of two months of cold.  And a bit of hope for those, like myself, who'd love a bit of late February mildness.

    I wouldn’t cfs even let take care about my mother in law, so much about trusting it…

    • Like 7

    Model Output Discussion - Into 2024

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    37 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

    It is strange that ec sometimes doesn’t handle the 3/5 day as well as other lower res models 

    I think the Xmas day drop is relative to the forecast at day 5 which would have been the run from the 20th. Could be wrong though 

    upper PV (un)expectly recovered around xmas maybe this is why we had rather cold prospects the days before with possible white xmas. The PV regained strength, but that’s history now, maybe we are for the FINAL WARMING already…

    Model Output Discussion - Into 2024

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    32 minutes ago, Scott Ingham said:

    @TEITS is correct btw. In 2010 and 2009 the ecm went on one for 48 hours before quickly coming back to its 240 ideas at 120 and the rest is history! 
     

    Just to add this latest gfs run is similar to ouput 48 hours ago! Heights are hugely different in a good way around Greenland. First signs of a climb back towards nirvana? 

    Yep, this wobbling days before the mighty 2010 from EC is a thing I remember very good. But also have to say, that since then 14 years have passed and EC had some major updates and upgrades, not to mention the capacity of their super computers. 
     

    • Like 5
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