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Vikos

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Everything posted by Vikos

  1. Comparing EC 12z yesterday and today @ 29th (in the middle todays 00z) Not very good perfomance, either atm
  2. I see this Iberia high and have the melody of "hello darkness my old friend (sound of silence" in my mind. This would be a gameover 😞
  3. I do, maybe not to local (yet), but that cold pool is growing big time! If we manage to put our straws in this ice cold sangria bucket... From to ---> It seems it sucks all the cold away from Canada
  4. Ok, there you go The main center of the polar vortex lies over Siberia with a strong cold trough over Scandinavia to M/W-Europe, a smaller part of the vortex lies over central Canada with a high pressure bridge from northern Canada to the North Pacific (polar vortex split). Between the high pressure bridge and the main vortex over Eurasia, arctic air masses can flow from eastern Siberia over the Arctic directly to Europe. This is around 25.1. For the outcome of that SSWE, we are in a good timeline according this graph See the stratosphere Thread, where @sebastia
  5. Do you want a rather pessemistic or a rather optimistic outlook?
  6. Sometimes, one has just to say The trend is your friend So, the trend is going the right way for coldies, outcome yet very diffuse regarding where H and L lay, but the trend is a rather colder end of January to a cold start of February. Not more, not less.
  7. +144h is still my FI mark, deterministic models struggle to give a good mid-term outlook.
  8. EC Scenarios 12z Each scenario, defined at 500 hPa, is associated to one of 4 pre-defined large scale climatological regimes. The frame colour of each plot represents the association to the climatological regimes. Scenario with a red frame indicates that its large scale features resembles the ones represented by the blocking, blue indicates association with Positive NAO pattern, green indicates association with negative NAO and violet with the Atlantic ridge pattern.
  9. Still no doubt about it. A bit cherry picking, but hey, this is the models thread 🙂
  10. If we just leave the sarcasm outside that’ll be great. EC 144 smells good... 😜🥴
  11. No, we say „immer nur in der Glaskugel“ wich means those BOOOM charts always are in the gipsy Cristal ball (this thing they use to predict the future...)
  12. The mood in here is like the d10 correlation graph from GFS. Ups and downs every 6h 🥸
  13. Looking good for a Split upstairs. But still needs to reach troposphere. Downwelling will take some time, no signals on a PVS in troposphere, yet 10hPa 30hPa in 50hPa winds slow down, but no negatives, but patterns seem to follow upper levels. In 150hPa (Strat-2-Tropo layer) still looking quite zonal, winds remain all positive Regarding those zonal winds, well.... From to----> Wait and see. Honestly, atm I see a patt situation, outcome unknown. GFS looks good, though.
  14. EC Scenarios 12z Each scenario, defined at 500 hPa, is associated to one of 4 pre-defined large scale climatological regimes. The frame colour of each plot represents the association to the climatological regimes. Scenario with a red frame indicates that its large scale features resembles the ones represented by the blocking, blue indicates association with Positive NAO pattern, green indicates association with negative NAO and violet with the Atlantic ridge pattern. So, needed blocking is with one weaker cluster around month change... bit of hope..
  15. Maybe it's the new variation (mutant) Stay safe (will be deleted soon I think)
  16. Yep, those background signals... along with the EC charts of 30hpa.
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