Lloyds32

I did mention this morning that the ecm didn’t look as great as yesterday’s. I posted that I thought the high would drop south and push the cold and flow in Europe. @karlos1983 above chart illustrates this.

Thank you for your response, much appreciated.

Hi Karlos. You always reply to every post I make. Its a forum, many posters make a predication based on the output. The ECM at 168 and 192 today has a weaker flow from the east. At 192 the pressure the NE seems further south, pushing the stronger flow into France etc. That's how I see it panning out, just an opinion. No need to get so upset.

Hm. I think today's ECM run isn't as good as yesterdays. Today's looks like the ridge is having more influence on the UK, where it has moved (sunk?) more over the UK stopping the strongest flow from the east. Which in turn pushes the low pressure further south into Europe. I'm looking for a stronger ridge and up further to the NE. I have feeling the ridge is going to sink more on the next ECM run keeping the easterly flow more towards northern France. Therefore the deep cold being pushed further south into Europe. That's just my take on the way I think it will pan out. Europe into the freezer with snow, with the UK missing out with the ridge sinking over us. I think the operational run was cold outliner.

Nice to see something in the far reaches of the GFS that resembles what the anomaly charts have shown. The pressure pushing into Greeland/Iceland region and away from the Azores certainly looks refreshing. Also, even if FI, it shows a proper winter pattern, and what UK really needs to get a good cold spell.......forget the Atlantic slider games.

Thanks for the reply. The models haven't been zoning in on any widespread snow event or cold 'spell' and now are backtracking..? It was just a potential slider. Also anything into FI is more of the same, with a strong Azores High dictating the pattern.

Can you explain what needs a steadying hand, and what might unravel? The models show a system dropping SE bringing wet and windy conditions with the potential of snow over high ground in the north etc?

Puts all the pathetic arguing in the Model Thread about a slider and 'below average' into perspective.

As far I can see, with my little experience, the Azores high is going absolutely nowhere and will influence our weather for a number of weeks yet. People keep posting anomaly charts showing the high linking up to the Greenland area, but every chart I see shows this scenario as very very weak. With the main strong anomaly being located in the Azores region. Nearer to time, Atlantic NW/W winds with rain and wintry weather over high ground. There has been so much scrutiny over a potential sliding low, which in reality would't deliver much during and post if it did.

So we have no northern blocking, a strong PV over Greenland, a strong Atlantic High hopefully being nice, so we can feed off the cold air scraps sent in a SE direction. Mixing in and out of milder air could be an issue? Also with -5 air above, 2m temps will be what 3-5 degrees? This sort of pattern seems the complete opposite of what we were hoping for post SSW.

I thought that's all the models have ever shown regarding this so called 'cold' spell off the Atlantic.

In the far reaches of FI. Your chart is date 28th January 16 days away. Before that, and more towards the reliable..as per my post. Thats my view. Absolutely nothing to get excited about.

Hmm. I'm just seeing systems with PM air coming off the Atlantic, some of it cold enough for snow over the hills, and some wintry conditions lower down. Looks very damp, coldish, yuk weather. I'm not seeing any Greenland/Atlantic link up with High pressure and a certainly no Scandi Highs. All looks like normal winter fare for the UK. Don't see any change this month from this pattern. Certainly no response to a SSW we all hoped for at the moment.

thanks very much

great help... Anyone else, thanks

sorry, link to where the icon can be found...thanks

Indeed, quite possibly. You could be waiting a very long time...:)

Looks colder but still transient and mobile. Atlantic High Pressure in control.

Taking the 18z and 0z GFS all looks very Atlantic sourced weather with PM air in the mix. Guess its good for hills and mountains but if your looking ice days and laying snow I personally don't see it. Looks cold (as in below average) and pretty damp and miserable. Greenland high pressure of any size or position looks completely off the table. Transient cold air events looks the form horse, in between milder air off the Atlantic.

I think there is plenty of blocking, just not in the right place for the UK. The rest of Europe having plenty of freezing temperatures and snow.

Very good post. Sums up the situation perfectly. We might go 'below average' but that doesn't mean snow to low levels or the conditions hoped for post SSW.

So the more experienced members seem to think that Greenland High blocking features can be forgotten, and just the odd Atlantic ridging may bring NW blasts of cold air. This has been seen quite clearly in GFS FI. February now we should be looking too for a different pattern? The hunt certainly goes on...

Yes indeed. But I don't think we are seeing any high pressure appearing in the charts to create what's needed. Lots of LP. But hey, I'm no expert, just looking at face value.

Still not seeing anything around Greenland regarding High Pressure to lock in any cold. High pressure tries to build in the Atlantic and push north, but low pressure around the tip of Greenland says no. Toppling high pressure in the Atlantic with fleeting cold bursts in FI seems the theme. Still waiting for the Atlantic High/Greenland High as touted by numerous charts posted.

That's because the models actually show cold uppers dropping down over that part of Europe. Here we miss out.