[South West and Central Southern England Regional Weather Discussion 01/12/2018 Onwards]

Temps blasting up now, full on melt. Good news for the kids football on the astro turf tomorrow. 

[South West and Central Southern England Regional Weather Discussion 01/12/2018 Onwards]

Thaw really kicking in along North Somerset coasts and few miles inland. Slushy wet mess everywhere, temperatures just not cold enough now. Could be a lot of ice later.

[South West and Central Southern England Regional Weather Discussion 01/12/2018 Onwards]

4 minutes ago, MP-R said:

Could also do with that temperature falling just a tad. 0.8C currently and there's a bit of a drip going on.

Certainly a thaw taking place. Clevedon up to 2.3.

Shame temps were not below freezing before the event and during, snow totals would of measured so much more.

[South West and Central Southern England Regional Weather Discussion 01/12/2018 Onwards]

Temp on the increase, thaw beggining 2.3, dew point 0.2 (Clevedon on the coast)

[South West and Central Southern England Regional Weather Discussion 01/12/2018 Onwards]

Clevedon temp 1.9, didn't get below freezing last night.

[South West and Central Southern England Regional Weather Discussion 01/12/2018 Onwards]

6 minutes ago, fromey said:

 

IMG_3532.MOV

If it carries on your going to get a foot of snow, if your already over 6 inches (15cm) , 

 

[South West and Central Southern England Regional Weather Discussion 01/12/2018 Onwards]

1 minute ago, That ECM said:

As a fella we will accept that measurement. Clearly over half a foot

Indeed..must be right!    

[South West and Central Southern England Regional Weather Discussion 01/12/2018 Onwards]

7 minutes ago, fromey said:

Just a smidge over 6 inches from the level stuff I could find

Over half a foot??????

[Cold hunt - models and chat]

22 minutes ago, IDO said:

Be wary of the GFS op:

Little support in the GEFS, well no more than yesterday's small cluster hinting at this.

Better to have op 'potentially' showing the way, rather than like most of the winter relying on the 'mean' and the rest of the ensemble! 

[South West and Central Southern England Regional Weather Discussion 01/12/2018 Onwards]

Ian F's latest forecast states the front is slower than thought yesterday. Guess that's better for temperatures to drop off before it does arrive. As for accumulation pretty variable, a dusting to a 2.5 of inches at low levels.

[South West and Central Southern England Regional Weather Discussion 01/12/2018 Onwards]

7 minutes ago, s4lancia said:

My boy's school just been closed in Dorchester. Obviously in preperation, not because of any current issues.

Saves the kids getting wet in the rain i guess 

[South West and Central Southern England Regional Weather Discussion 01/12/2018 Onwards]

1 minute ago, wightwootton said:

Yes now 0.5 c on the north of the Island. Brilliant

5 degrees Bournemouth airport, Portland 5 degrees

[South West and Central Southern England Regional Weather Discussion 01/12/2018 Onwards]

Temp rising a little in Clevedon 2.4, guess because of the front moving in. Dew Point rising to 0.5.

[South West and Central Southern England Regional Weather Discussion 01/12/2018 Onwards]

Clevedon temp 2.0, dew point 0.1

[South West and Central Southern England Regional Weather Discussion 01/12/2018 Onwards]

2 minutes ago, Zephyr said:

06z euro4

Looks pretty good for all locations at height, Dartmoor, Mendips, Exmoor, Quantocks, Cranborne, and hills of South Wales. 

[South West and Central Southern England Regional Weather Discussion 01/12/2018 Onwards]

3 minutes ago, MidnightSnow said:

"A band of rain will arrive from the southwest on Thursday afternoon, quickly turning to snow and becoming heavy at times. 3 to 7 cm is likely to accumulate quickly - within two to three hours - with up to 10 cm in some places."

This is going to the wire. Do I believe the Met Office or Lloyds32 

As my post clearly stated, it was what Ian F said last night...Please feel free to view his forecast.

As he also said, the forecast will homed in TODAY with regards to warnings (as per the Amber) and a more clearer picture. So basically its not what I think, its what Ian F said last and night the Meto text today. 

[South West and Central Southern England Regional Weather Discussion 01/12/2018 Onwards]

4 minutes ago, rh205 said:

UKMO have downgraded Gosport to sleet. I hope they've got it wrong. Temps have risen to 4.8C increasing at 3.2C /hr. DP 2.2C

 

3 minutes ago, Climate_Eyes said:

Couple from earlier, the icy fog has finally started to give way but it deposited a decent bit of rime on most of the trees and vegetation.

Temp here still at -3.8°C.

 

Huge temperature difference, locations not far apart. Inland and coastal.

[South West and Central Southern England Regional Weather Discussion 01/12/2018 Onwards]

Clevedon still at 0.8, surprising really.

[South West and Central Southern England Regional Weather Discussion 01/12/2018 Onwards]

39 minutes ago, divadee said:

Warming up a lot quicker than I thought it would this morning. Already up to -0.6. 

It will reach about 5 today around midday in your location.

[South West and Central Southern England Regional Weather Discussion 01/12/2018 Onwards]

6 minutes ago, Nights King said:

Itv West said rain possibly turning to snow!! Possibly?? I mean really.. 

Ian F's forecast from last night really indicates that initially temperatures will not be cold enough for snow, looks pretty wet at first then it will turn to snow later in evening. By then the ground will be wet, so accumulation amounts will be a couple cm at best. Coastal areas in North Somerset probably staying pretty damp and miserable. Up over the hills will be a different story, all round looks a damp wintry mess, for N. Somerset. PPM pretty patchy too.

edit. as per AWD above.

[South West and Central Southern England Regional Weather Discussion 01/12/2018 Onwards]

8 minutes ago, SteveB said:

Temp rising fast now, was -4.1c half an our ago, now -3.6c

Really annoying the way the snow prediction charts above have rain for the coast. Still have a bad feeling about this.

You will probably see snow falling at some stage, but onto already wet ground when the front pushes in. That will be the case in most areas in North Somerset, a wet ground rain/sleet/snow event. Up on the Mendips will be a different story. 

[Meto Uk Further Outlook]

3 hours ago, Summer Sun said:

Just after I go on about the once daily updates they go and decide the 1st go on the 16 to 30 dayer wasn't right, so they had to have another go

UK Outlook for Wednesday 13 Feb 2019 to Wednesday 27 Feb 2019:

Generally cold conditions are often likely to dominate the weather through mid to late February with the potential for some periods where winds are coming from the east. In the setup the weather is likely to be mixed with spells of showery rain, sleet and some snow most likely across the south and east, with northern and western parts perhaps more likely to be drier. Despite the prevalence of mainly cold weather, occasional milder interludes remain possible.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast

I'm not sure why you thought your original post was the update, the date stamp never changed when I was viewing it.

As I said the other day, give it a couple of days. 'Generally cold' just below average, a normal end to winter with snow where expected, ie hills and the north. Normal end to winter.

[South West and Central Southern England Regional Weather Discussion 01/12/2018 Onwards]

43 minutes ago, MP-R said:

Think you need to get on with your day like the rest of us instead of debating decimal points...

Yeah, but this event is very marginal so temps are very important. Just found it strange that your location at sea level was colder than Bristol Airport at 700 ft.

Especially when I drove through Cleeve at 5.30am and it was pouring with rain.

[South West and Central Southern England Regional Weather Discussion 01/12/2018 Onwards]

2 minutes ago, MP-R said:

Never said there was a frost. Move along...

Think you need a temp sensor 

[South West and Central Southern England Regional Weather Discussion 01/12/2018 Onwards]

6 minutes ago, MP-R said:

I doubt it. Blagdon is still 2C. I’m in Cleeve. It can be a little frost hollow of its own sometimes but not massively so.

Guess it must be a frost hollow, Cleeve is practically at sea level, the airport is at nearly 700 ft. Didn't get a frost in Cleeve this morning, temperatures stayed above freezing.